Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes had record-high closes Monday. However, more and more U.S. states are imposing restrictions on businesses and public gatherings, as Covid-19 rages and many hospital beds are full or close to it. This atmosphere in the U.S. and in Europe cannot help but dent trader and investor risk appetite heading into holidays that are likely to see families separated. Despite the very encouraging news on the vaccine front seen recently, there are dark days that lie ahead for the U.S., Europe and other countries hard hit by the pandemic.

It could also be that trader/investor sentiment has been somewhat dented by reports the Trump administration is planning to take a very hard line on China over the next two months, before Trump leaves office, including reportedly taking some steps that the incoming Biden administration would find hard to roll back. Just today, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) came out with a plan to require Chinese companies traded on U.S. stock exchanges to have auditors overseen by the U.S. If the Chinese firms won’t comply they get shut out of U.S. stock exchanges.

It’s a big U.S. reports day, highlighted by retail sales for October that are forecast to be up 0.5% from September.

It’s worth mentioning that the “softs” futures markets (coffee, cocoa, sugar, orange juice and cotton) all had big upside days Monday, with most of those markets hitting multi-month highs. Part of those gains may be due to analysts at Citibank making a call that the U.S. dollar will decline by up to 20% in 2021. Most raw commodities for sale on the world market are priced in U.S. dollars. When the greenback declines, it makes those commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency—possibly leading to more demand. Analysts at Citibank believe the Federal Reserve will maintain a very easy monetary policy even if inflation rises alongside the U.S. economy’s expected recovery, which in turn would prompt U.S. government bond and note yields to rise. Keep in mind these hotshot prognosticators like Citi and Goldman Sachs don’t have any better track records at calling major market moves than the other banks or brokers/analysts. The only difference may be that the big wheels front-loaded their trades and then made their calls public.

The U.S. dollar index is lower again early today. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices near steady and trading around $41.30 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.89%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing index, manufacturing and trade inventories, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are not far below the recent spike high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,637.00 and then at the November high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,586.50 and then at 3,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,096.25 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,851.75 and then at 11,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 172 22/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 171 9/32 even and then at 171 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the this week’s high of 138.08.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.27.0 and then at 137.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1919 and then at the November high of 1.1954. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1849 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.09 and then at the November high of $43.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at this week’s low of $40.15. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Corn and soybean futures last week hit contract highs amid continued strong export demand for U.S. grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early technical clues that market tops are close at hand in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The global markets are still pricing in the news of a Covid-19 vaccine that will likely come on line for the general public in the coming few months, and then followed by a likely very rapid increase in economic growth in major countries hit hard by the pandemic. News just out that Moderna saw very promising results in its third stage of a vaccine trial further boosted the stock markets. Moderna’s vaccine is deemed at 94% effective and it only requires refrigeration of the vaccine, and not the extreme cold needed to keep Pfizer’s vaccine. The U.S. presently has 11 million Covid cases and many hospitals are full or nearly full.

Gold prices sold off sharply on the Moderna news this morning, while U.S. Treasury yields rose.

U.S. markets were also assuaged by weekend reports the incoming Biden administration is not planning to impose a national lockdown on the U.S. economy.

Asian shares were boosted in part on a trade deal signed by China, Japan, South Korea and 12 other countries, who produce one-third of global GDP.

In other overnight news, China got some more upbeat economic data as its industrial output in October rose 6.9%, year-on-year. Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% in the January-October period, and retail sales were up 4.3% in October. China’s unemployment rate in October came in at 5.3%. China’s authoritarian regime was able to lock down the entire population early this year, to tamp down Covid-19, and its economy is now reaping the benefits. That compares to the democracies in the U.S. and Europe that were not able to completely control their populations and whose economies continue to struggle as Covid infections are in a steep ascent.

The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker early today. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices higher and trading around $41.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.88%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are creeping back toward last week’s spike high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,617.75 and then at 3,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,586.50 and then at 3,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,065.00 and then at 12,119.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,775.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 22/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 171 16/32 even and then at 171 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.08.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.29.0 and then at 137.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1877 and then at 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at last week’s low of 1.1753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $42.00 and then at last week’s high of $43.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at the overnight low of $40.15. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean futures last week hit contract highs amid continued strong export demand for U.S. grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has seen risk appetite dented late this week as the Covid-19 pandemic is raging in the U.S. and Europe. Families are facing the grim reality of spending the upcoming holidays apart.

A survey by Central Banking and Invesco says the Covid-19 pandemic has led to 23% of world central banks seeing gold as a more attractive asset, while the remaining 77% responded their view on gold had not changed. Central bankers generally expect their gold holdings to increase over the next year. General public investor demand for gold has been robust this year as the investing public still sees bullion as a safe-haven asset, the report said.

U.S. Treasury bond and note yields have backed off a bit Friday after rising to eight-month highs earlier this week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.88% after pushing closer to 1.0% this week.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices lower and trading around $40.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher has created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart, suggesting a near-term top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 3,576.75 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,518.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,506.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart. There is also the specter of a bearish double-top reversal on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,119.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,804.75 and then at 11,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Wednesday. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 27/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 even and then at 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer on short covering after hitting a five-month low on Wednesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.10.5 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.00.0 and then at 137.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1853 and then at 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1753 and then at 1.1720. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.94 and then at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.16 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from recent strong gains. Corn and soybean futures this week hit new contract highs following a bullish USDA report this week and continued strong export demand for U.S. grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are also mixed ahead of the New York day session. The U.S. has seen over 240,000 deaths and more than 10.3 million confirmed Covid-19 infections, with new cases soaring to all-time highs of well over 120,000 per day over the past week. The marketplace is paying more attention to the grim news as the likelihood of increasing business and public-gathering restrictions in the weeks and months ahead is rapidly growing. While news earlier this week of successful Covid vaccines coming on line in the coming months boosted trader and investor confidence, that initial euphoria has waned as the week has progressed.

The marketplace is also becoming increasingly concerned, although not seriously alarmed yet, about a smooth transition of power for the U.S. presidency. Outgoing President Trump is not conceding the election he lost and appears to be hampering President-elect Biden’s transition to power. Trump this week fired the U.S. military’s leader, defense secretary Mark Esper.

In overnight news, the Eurozone got some downbeat economic news, as its industrial output for September fell by 0.4% from August and was down 6.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were weaker than expected.

U.S. Treasury bond and note yields have risen to eight-month highs this week, on the prospects for a solid U.S. economic recovery in the second half of 2021. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.94%.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $41.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the consumer price index, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher has created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart, suggesting a near-term top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 3,576.75 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,538.25 and then at this week’s low of 3,506.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart. There is also the specter of a bearish double-top reversal on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,119.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,781.25 and then at 11,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Wednesday. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 171 7/32 and then at 172 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 170 15/32 and then at 170 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a five-month low on Wednesday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.27.5 and then at 138.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.19.5 and then at 137.13.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1853 and then at 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1753 and then at 1.1720. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.94 and then at this week’s high of $43.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from recent strong gains. Corn and soybean futures this week hit new contract highs following a bullish USDA report this week and continued strong export demand for U.S. grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no early clues to suggest the grain markets are close to topping out.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff