Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. equities traders remain upbeat due in part to notions the U.S. Congress will soon come through with a new stimulus package for Americans dealing with the economic hardship of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Traders today will closely examine the weekly U.S. jobless claims report, which is expected to show new claims of around 1.4 million. Today’s report is likely to give fresh insight on notions the U.S. economic recovery is slowing down.

The Bank of England left is monetary policy unchanged at is regular meeting today, with the BOE saying negative interest rates may not be the right tool for spurring economic growth in the U.K. economy.

The U.S.-China political tensions remain near a boil, as U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo has urged Americans not to use technology products owned by China, including Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent and Baidu.

The key U.S. data point of the week will be Friday’s jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up by around 1.25 million after rising by 4.8 million in June. However, don’t be surprised to see a miss from the forecasts, to likely move the markets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $42.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower today and hit a two-year low overnight. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.526% and near a record low.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report and monthly retail chain store sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hit another 5.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,329.25 and then at 3,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,292.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,254.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s record high of 11,144.00 and then at 11,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at 10,900. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s five-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 183 even and then at 183 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 181 23/32and then at this week’s low of 181 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 140.13.0 and then at 140.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 140.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 139.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading but did hit a 16-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1926 and then at 1.1950. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.1803 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1731. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a five-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $42.45 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Non-threatening U.S. weather and good-looking corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest are still fully bearish. August is under way and harvest creeps closer for corn and soybeans. Unless weather patterns significantly change the majority of the U.S. corn and soybean crops will cruise into harvest with bountiful yield potential. One saving grace for the grains is growing inflation worries that are propelling gold, silver and even crude oil prices higher. That could at some point spill over into some speculative buying interest in the beaten-up grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, including a new record high in the Nasdaq stock index. Hopes of a new U.S. government stimulus package for Americans coming soon are rising at mid-week on reports Democrats and Republicans are coming closer to agreement on a package. Rising crude oil prices that hit a five-month high overnight are also giving traders and investors a boost.

On tap Wednesday is the ADP national employment report for July, which is expected to show U.S. jobs growth of around 1 million. This report could move the markets when it’s released at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The key U.S. data point of the week will be Friday’s jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up by around 1.25 million after rising by 4.8 million in June. However, don’t be surprised to see a miss from the forecasts, to likely move the markets.

Gold and silver are continuing on a bullish rampage, with gold futures up over $30 an ounce today and hitting a record high of $2,045.20 overnight, basis October Comex futures. Silver hit a seven-year high of $26.975, basis September Comex futures. Both metals continue to see support from safe-haven demand amid the worrisome rise in Covid-19 infections, geopolitics and concerns about problematic price inflation in the coming months. As the U.S. Congress appears to be getting closer to a new round of government stimulus payments to Americans, such would only add to the massive influx of liquidity into the world financial system, which has created the inflation concerns.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher, hitting a five-month high and trading around $42.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.52% and near a record low.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP jobs report, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the ISM report on business services, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 5.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,350.00 and then at the February high of 3,396.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,292.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,254.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,144.00 and then at 11,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,055.75 and then at 11,000. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 183 even and then at 183 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 182 even and then at this week’s low of 181 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading  after hitting a contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 140.13.0 and then at 140.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 140.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 139.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1871 and then at last week’s high of 1.1919. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1803 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1.1731. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit a five-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $43.00 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.00 and then at $41.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading, on tepid short covering following solid losses suffered Tuesday, including corn hitting a contract low. Non-threatening U.S. weather and good-looking corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest are bearish. August is now under way and harvest creeps closer for corn and soybeans. Unless weather patterns significantly change the majority of the U.S. corn and soybean crops will cruise into harvest with bountiful yield potential. One saving grace for the grains is growing inflation worries that are propelling gold, silver and even crude oil prices higher. That could spill over into some speculative buying interest in the beaten-up grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the central bank of Australia kept its monetary policy unchanged, but the bank said monetary stimulus and low interest rates will be required for some time to come.

Gold prices remain near this week’s record highs and are approaching $2,000 an ounce, on ongoing safe-haven demand amid the worrisome rise in Covid-19 infections, geopolitics and concerns about problematic price inflation in the coming months.

The key U.S. data point of the week will be Friday’s jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up by around 1.25 million after rising by 4.8 million in June. However, don’t be surprised to see a miss from the forecasts, to likely move the markets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $40.25 a barrel. The crude oil market bulls have seen their price uptrend on the daily chart stall out and turn into sideways and choppy trading. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 5.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and did hit a 5.5-month high overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,297.75 and then at 3,325.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,250.00 and then at 3,225.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,0092.00 and then at 11,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 10,876.25 and then at 10,750. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 182 25/32 and then at 183 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 181 9/32 and then at 181 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s contract high of 140.06.0 and then at 140.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 139.28.0 and then at 139.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1816 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1762 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1706. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has rolled over into sideways and choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $41.24 and then at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $39.58 and then at last week’s low of $38.72. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Non-threatening U.S. weather and good-looking corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest are bearish. August is now under way and harvest creeps closer for corn and soybeans. Unless weather patterns significantly change the majority of the U.S. corn and soybean crops will cruise into harvest with bountiful yield potential.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to mostly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The big news in the business world is weekend reports that U.S. President Trump has given the Chinese company TikTok 45 days to sell its U.S operations, as Trump says TikTok is a national security threat to the U.S. Microsoft said Sunday it plans to by TikToc. This move by the U.S. ratcheted up another notch the U.S.-China strains.

China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was reported Monday and came in at 52.8 in July versus 51.2 in June and a 51.1 reading forecast by analysts. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector. The July number was the best since 2011 and suggests the world’s second-largest economy continues to rebound while at the same time the U.S. economy may be suffering a setback from its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns.

China’s central bank on Monday said it will boost its money supply and total social financing in 2020 compared to 2019, including long-term loans to small businesses and manufacturers.

Meantime, the Euro zone manufacturing PMI for July was revised up to 51.8 from 47.4 in June and a 51.1. forecast for July.

The key U.S. data point of the week will be Friday’s jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up by around 1.25 million after rising by 4.8 million in June. However, don’t be surprised to see a miss from the forecasts, to likely move the markets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $39.75 a barrel. The crude oil market bulls have seen their price uptrend on the daily chart stall out and turn into sideways and choppy trading. The U.S. dollar index is higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a nearly two-year low last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business and manufacturing, construction spending, domestic auto sales, and the global manufacturing PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,284.50 and then at 3,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,195.00 and then at 3,175.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in firm overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.50 and then at the July high of 11,058.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,800.00 and then at 10,700. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nearly five-month high on Friday. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 182 17/32 and then at last week’s high of 182 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 181 21/32 and then at 181 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a contract high last Friday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s contract high of 140.06.0 and then at 140.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.30.0 and then at 139.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower on profit taking in early U.S. trading, after hitting a nearly two-year high last Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1807 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has rolled over into sideways and choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.43 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.58 and then at last week’s low of $38.72. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Still bearish is non-threatening U.S. weather in the Corn Belt has August is now under way and harvest creeps closer for corn and soybeans. Buying interest in the grains will be limited early this week on worries that China at any time could stop its heretofore hefty purchases of U.S. grains, as strains between the two countries become keener. Traders will closely monitor this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff