Daily Morning Report

Friday, August 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight following Thursday’s rally to a new all-time high close. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,088.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11,524.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,088.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,643.13.

The September S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below February’s high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February’s high crossing at 3393.52 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3315.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February’s high crossing at 3393.52. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3315.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3205.01.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they continue to form a possible bear-flag below the January-June uptrend line crossing near 179-20. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August’s high, July’s low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-11. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 177-16. Second support is July’s low crossing at 177-06.

September T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July’s low crossing at 138.235.

ENERGY MARKETS:October crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month’s trading range above the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.91. Third support is the July 30^th low crossing at $39.00.

October heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.33. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $119.03.

October unleaded gas was lower overnight due to light profit taking due concerns over stagnant or falling demand. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $122.61. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.00.

October Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.291 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 2.598. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.428. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.291.

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends a short covering bounce off Tuesday’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year’s decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3^rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.21. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at $92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.

The September Euro was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month’s gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3^rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at $119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.37.

The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June’s low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2759.

The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12^th low crossing at 1.0881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12^th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March’s low, January’s high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.33.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-week’s low, July’s high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0939 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March’s decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August’s low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20^th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July’s low crossing at 0.0925.

PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight due in part to strength in the U.S. Dollar. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1873.80 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off last-week’s low, August’s high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1873.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.

September silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.

September copper was lower due to profit taking overnight signaling a possible end to the rally off last-Thursday’s low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 2.7690 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off August’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.0295. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 2.7690. Second support is July’s low crossing at 2.7035.

GRAINS: December corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this month’s rally, the June 8^th high crossing at $3.48 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 8^th high crossing at $3.48 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4.

December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, the July 31^st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31^st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the July 24^th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is August’s low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June’s low crossing at $4.79 1/2.

December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the July 24^th high crossing at $4.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 24^th high crossing at $4.65 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $4.74 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40. Second support is August’s low crossing at $4.20 3/4.

December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.17 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $5.33 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.17. Second support is August’s low crossing at $5.06 1/2.

November soybeans was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight after the U.S. central bank gave a somewhat discouraging economic outlook and largely ruled out one way to address it. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,029.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 11,438.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,029.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,602.70.

The September S&P 500 was lower due to profit taking overnight following this week’s test of February’s high crossing at 3393.52. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February’s high crossing at 3393.52 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3307.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February’s high crossing at 3393.52. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3307.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3200.90.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate below the January-June uptrend line crossing near 179-18. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August’s high, July’s low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-13. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 177-16. Second support is July’s low crossing at 177-06.

September T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.209 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.209. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July’s low crossing at 138.235.

ENERGY MARKETS: October crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month’s trading range above the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.80. Third support is the July 30^th low crossing at $39.00.

October heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.11. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $119.03.

October unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at $122.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.63.

October Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.267 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 2.598. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.420. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.267.

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this year’s decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3^rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.29. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at $92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.

The September Euro was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month’s gains. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3^rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at $119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.27.

The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June’s low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2747.

The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12^th low crossing at 1.0881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12^th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s loss. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March’s low, January’s high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.28.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-week’s low, July’s high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0938 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March’s decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August’s low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20^th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July’s low crossing at 0.0925.

PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday’s decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1869.60 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off last-week’s low, August’s high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1869.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.

September silver was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.

September copper was lower due to profit taking overnight signaling a possible end to the rally off last-Thursday’s low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday’s low crossing at 2.7690 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.0295. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 2.7690. Second support is July’s low crossing at 2.7035.

GRAINS:December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. Traders will be watching this morning’s weekly export report from USDA for short-term direction. The USDA is expected to show corn sales ranging between 19.7 million and 53.1 million bushels. Actuals will need to come in on the high end of those estimates to best the prior week’s tally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this month’s rally, the June 8^th high crossing at $3.48 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 8^th high crossing at $3.48 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 1/2.

December wheat was lower overnight as it extends this week’s back and forth trading. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, the July 31^st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.10 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31^st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the July 24^th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is August’s low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June’s low crossing at $4.79 1/2.

December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.50 1/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.50 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $4.65 1/2. First support is August’s low crossing at $4.20 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.12.

December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $5.33 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/4. Second support is August’s low crossing at $5.06 1/2.

November soybeans was lower overnight on expectations that massive yields are still likely this fall, although another large sale to China reported this morning kept losses minimized. Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 7.1 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/21 marketing year, which begins September 1. Today’s USDA weekly grain export data is expect to show soybean sales ranging between 84.5 million and 143.3 million bushels for the week ending August 13. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.87 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at $9.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.87 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The Stock Indexes: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and posted a new all-time high as it extends this year’s rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,963.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11,328.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,963.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,548.33.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and is poised to test February’s high crossing at 3387.60. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February’s high crossing at 3387.60 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3295.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3387.00. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3295.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3193.93.

Interest Rates: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as they consolidate some of the decline off August’s high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to slightly higher opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top. If September extends the decline off August’s high, July’s low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-20. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 183-06. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 177-16. Second support is July’s low crossing at 177-06.

September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidates some of this month’s decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.214 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 140.130. Second resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Thursday’s low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July’s low crossing at 138.235.

Energies: October crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.66. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $39.00.

October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.94. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $119.03.

October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday’s rally, which posted an upside breakout of the June-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.29 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at $122.65. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.29. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $106.14.

October Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low above the 87% retracement level of the May-June-decline crossing at 2.273. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at 2.588 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.199 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 2.525. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 2.588. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.368. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.199.

Currencies: The September Dollar was lower overnight and spiked to a new contract low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year’s decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3^rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at $92.45. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the May 14^th 2018 low crossing at 92.12.

The September Euro was higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off May’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3^rd low crossing at $117.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 6th high crossing at $119.26. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.08.

The September British Pound was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June’s low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2730.

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it renewed the rally off March’s low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1074. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0742.

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March’s low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March’s low, January’s high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.24.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-week’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0942 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month’s decline, the July 20^th low crossing at 0.0930 is the next downside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March’s decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the July 20^th low crossing at 0.0930. Second support is July’s low crossing at 0.0925.

Precious Metals: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1988.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1862.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1988.80. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1862.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.

September silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.

Grains: December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. Monday’s crop condition report showed a two-point decline, with 69% of the crop now rated in good-to-excellent condition. However, traders were expecting a three-point drop, which led to the overnight weakness. States hit hardest by last-Monday’s storms saw the biggest declines. For example Iowa, fell ten points to 59% in good-to-excellent condition. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 13^th gap crossing at $3.43 3/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 1/4.

December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, the July 31^st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.09 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31^st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the July 24^th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June’s low crossing at $4.79 1/2.

December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.51 3/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.51 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $4.65 1/2. First support is August’s low crossing at $4.20 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.12.

December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 3/4 is the next upside target. If December renews this year’s decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $5.33 1/2. First support is August’s low crossing at $5.06 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.

November soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday’s gains. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at $9.17 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support August’s low crossing at $8.65 1/4. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight after the U.S. and China decided to delay trade talks on reviewing the Phase 1 trade agreement. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,935.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 8th high crossing at 11,283.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,935.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,517.46.

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends last week’s trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March’s low, February’s high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3289.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday’s high crossing at 3382.00. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3289.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3189.87.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher in overnight trading as they consolidate some of the decline off August’s high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to higher opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top. If September extends the decline off August’s high, July’s low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-23. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 183-06. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 177-16. Second support is July’s low crossing at 177-06.

September T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidates some of this month’s decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.216 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August’s high crossing at 140.130. Second resistance is March’s high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last- Thursday’s low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July’s low crossing at 138.235.

ENERGY MARKETS:October crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.56. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $39.00.

October heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April’s low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.76. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $119.03.

October unleaded gas was higher overnight signaling a potential upside breakout of the June-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.08 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $122.65. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.08. Second support is the July 30^th low crossing at $106.14.

October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June’s low above the 62% retracement level of the May-June-decline crossing at 2.247. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at 2.588 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.167 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.525. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 2.588. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.353. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.167.

CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month’s trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year’s decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the August 3^rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.51. First support is August’s low crossing at $92.48. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the May 14^th 2018 low crossing at 92.12.

The September Euro was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off May’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3^rd low crossing at $117.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 6th high crossing at $119.26. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.96.

The September British Pound was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June’s low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4^th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2721.

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April’s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 6th high crossing at 1.1062. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0730.

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and working on a possible inside day. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday’s high crossing at 75.81. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.21.

The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July’s high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the July 20^th low crossing at 0.0930 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0943 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March’s decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the July 20^th low crossing at 0.0930. Second support is July’s low crossing at 0.0925.

PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its declines off August’s high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1988.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August’s high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1856.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1988.00. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1856.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.

September silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August’s high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.

September copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8908 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 25% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 2.7419 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7968. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 2.7419.

GRAINS: December corn gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends last-week’s short covering rally. Stronger old and new-crop demand, which lowered this year’s projected ending stocks helped to trigger last week’s short covering rally. Also last week’s Derecho storm that cause significant damage to the corn crop across portions of Iowa, Wisconsin, portions of Illinois could reduce this year’s ending stocks by 50 to 300 million bushels when this year’s final crop size is determined. One more factor that has yet to garner much attention is much of Iowa along with portions of the eastern corn belt are in need to rain and soon or further yield losses appear likely. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month’s rally, the July 13^th gap crossing at $3.43 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.28 would signal that this month’s rally has ended. If December renews the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at $3.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 13^th gap crossing at $3.43 3/4. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $3.63. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $3.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.00 1/4.

December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July’s high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July’s high, June’s low crossing at $4.79 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June’s low crossing at $4.79 1/2.

December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July’s high, weekly support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.42. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.52 1/4. First support is August’s low crossing at $4.20 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.12.

December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year’s decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.28 1/2. First support is August’s low crossing at $5.06 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.

November soybeans gapped up and were higher overnight as they extend the short covering rally off last-Monday’s low. Strong export demand along with persistent dryness across large portions of Iowa and portions of the eastern corn belt are helping to underpin the rally off August’s low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s rally, July’s high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support August’s low crossing at $8.65 ¼. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff