Gold and silver posted strong losses Tuesday, and in late New York trading saw gold down over $115, basis Comex October futures. Meantime, silver was down over $4.25. The major question gold and silver traders are asking is, “Was Tuesday’s price action a signal that both markets have put in major tops?” Nobody knows the answer to that key question, but there are powerful technical tools that a trader can use to try to determine if and when the metals have or have not topped out. This 35-year market watcher thinks that today’s big drops in gold and silver prices are, so far, just big downside corrections in still-strong price uptrends on the charts. Price trend is the most powerful technical trading tool on the planet. Most successful traders will tell you that. “The trend is your friend” is a tried and true trading adage that profitable traders have espoused for over 100 years. Trading the rest of this week will be extra critical for both gold and silver markets. How the markets close on Friday will be very telling. If gold and silver futures prices close on Friday at or near their weekly lows, then such would be a significant early clue these markets have put in at least near-term tops. If the markets can recover over the next few days and finish the week well off of their weekly lows, bulls could be back in business soon.
Daily Morning Report
Risk appetite upbeat at mid-week
Wednesday, August 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading and the U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. At mid-week, risk appetite is elevated and there are signs marketplace psychology is changing a bit regarding the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though most believe the Russian vaccine approval announced Tuesday is premature and a stunt by Russian President Putin, there appears to be growing notions the worst of the coronavirus may be behind—both economically and in the human toll. Nations are working feverishly on a legitimate vaccine that may be available in the fourth quarter of this year, and if not then it would likely come early next year. Some health experts are now saying that humans’ own self-defense systems may work better at fighting off Covid than most in the health profession initially expected. Major global economies are rebounding, if even some are doing it in fits and starts, and it’s becoming less likely there will be the kind of encompassing business shutdowns like those which occurred in the spring, even if the pandemic remains uncontrolled. In the U.S., Covid infection rates have fallen this week and the U.S. Congress may be inching closer to a new stimulus package for Americans.
All of the aforementioned elements are bullish for stocks and some commodities, and bearish for safe-haven U.S. Treasuries, gold and silver. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note have climbed rapidly this week and are presently fetching around 0.66% after hovering around 0.5% and near a record low just last week. Gold futures were down over $115 at one point Tuesday afternoon, while silver lost over $4.00 an ounce.
In overnight news, Euro zone June industrial output rose 9.1% from May but was down 12.3%, year-on-year. Meantime, the U.K. saw its second-quarter GDP drop 20.4%, but that reading was a bit better than expected.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $42.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the consumer price index, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are close to the record high scored in February. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,379.00 and then at the record high of 3,396.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,319.50 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,157.75 and then at last week’s record high of 11,283.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,845.50 and then at 10,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term chart advantage but are fading fast this week. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 179 even and then at the overnight high of 179 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 178 16/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.10.0 and then at the overnight high of 139.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.03.5 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1817 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1719 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.94 and then at the August high of $43.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.53 and then at this week’s low of $41.17. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears remain in control amid generally non-threatening U.S. weather. Traders are still assessing the crops impact of a major wind storm that hit the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt Monday. The big news event for the grain markets this week will be Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. That report is not expected to be bullish.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Global equities boosted by Russian Covid vaccine news
Tuesday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets rallied in overnight trading and the U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors have put risk back on the table due in part to news overnight that Russia has approved a Covid-19 vaccine. Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters the vaccine has been given to his daughter. However, health experts are cautioning that the Russian vaccine may be premature because it has not gone through full “stage three” trials that last a few months. Still, the marketplace is so far Tuesday morning taking the Russian news as very good.
Safe-haven gold and silver prices sold off sharply on the Russian vaccine news.
Reports that the U.S. Congress and President Trump may be inching closer to agreeing upon a new government stimulus package for Americans are also a positive for marketplace sentiment.
Also, the new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. are starting to drop just a bit.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $42.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is down. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.6%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the producer price index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, hit another 5.5-month high overnight and prices are close to the record high scored in February. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,396.50 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,337.50 and then at Monday’s low of 3,329.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s record high of 11,283.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at Monday’s low of 10,928.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term chart advantage but are now fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 181 even and then at the overnight high of 181 10/32. Shorter-term support lies at 179 30/32 and then at 179 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.30.0 and then at Monday’s high of 140.04.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.21.0 and then at 139.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1850 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1730 and then at 1.1706. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $43.00 and then at the August high of $43.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.94 and then at Monday’s low of $41.17. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears remain in control amid generally non-threatening U.S. weather. However, the crops impact of a major wind storm that hit the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt Monday is being assessed. The big news event for the grain markets this week will be Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. That report is not expected to be bullish. Trading is likely to be quieter ahead of that data.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
The inflation trade–if not now, then it’s coming
Is the inflation trade back? Maybe. Take a look at many commodity markets and they are trending higher, including the “softs” (coffee, cocoa, sugar and lumber) and metals. Cattle futures are also trending up. Importantly, crude oil will have to lead for the raw commodity sector to see sustained price uptrends in individual markets. The very easy money policies of the world’s major central banks certainly puts the inflation trade back in play–if not now, then in the not-too-distant future. Stay tuned!– Jim
Quieter start to trading week
Monday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Global traders and investors were somewhat assuaged by the weekend news that President Trump has tried to move unilaterally to provide more economic assistance to Americans, as the Congress has seen no progress on the matter. Whether Trump succeeds remains to be seen.
While the U.S. has recorded the lowest number of new Covid cases in nearly a week, some states are still seeing a rise in infections. There are also reports the five major college conferences are likely to cancel all sports for this fall. That could deal a psychological blow to many American traders and investors.
U.S.-China tensions remain high as the highest-ranking U.S. official in decades visited Taiwan over the weekend. Mainland China military jets reportedly flew over Taiwan’s air space. Mainland China claims Taiwan as its own province. Meantime, reports said two U.S. senators will be sanctioned by China in retaliation. This comes as top U.S. and China trade officials are set to meet on August 15.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.81 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a two-year low last week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.55%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 5.5-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,355.50 and then at 3,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,325.00 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s record high of 11,283.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,035.25 and then at 11,000. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 182 even and then at Friday’s high of 182 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 181 3/32 and then at 182 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 140.09.0 and then at the contract high of 140.13. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.27.0 and then at 139.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 16-month high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1809 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1706 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $42.22 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are steady to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears remain in control amid non-threatening U.S. weather and good-looking corn and soybean crops in the U.S., as well as plentiful global wheat supplies. The big news event for the grain markets this week will be Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Trading is likely to be quieter ahead of that data.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Nervous marketplace on Friday, ahead of U.S. jobs report
Friday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are more downbeat on this last trading day of the week. President Trump has just ordered a ban on U.S. consumer dealings with the Chinese owners of the consumer apps TikTok and WeChat. The order is the administration’s latest salvo aimed at China, following a trade war and targeted actions against other Chinese companies. The new executive orders take effect in 45 days. The marketplace wonders what comes next in the heated rivalry between the two largest economies in the world, and two of the largest militaries.
Meantime, negotiations between U.S. Democrats and Republicans in the Congress on a new stimulus package for Americans have broken down, with President Trump threatening to take unilateral action on the matter.
In other overnight news, China’s exports rebounded strongly in July—up 7.2%, year-on-year. Its imports dropped 1.4% in the period. China’s overseas shipments to the U.S. in July rose 12.5%, year-on-year, marking the strongest increase since 2018. Some attribute the jump in U.S. exports to front-loading as relations between two nations deteriorate.
The European Union got some upbeat news Friday when German industrial production came in better than expected in June—up 8.9% from May.
Also causing trepidation early Friday is the impending release of the key U.S. data point of the week, if not the month: the jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up by around 1.25 million after rising by 4.8 million in June. However, don’t be surprised to see a miss from the forecasts, to likely move the markets.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $41.60 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a two-year low Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.53% and near a record low.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a 5.5-month high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,345.50 and then at 3,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,300.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,254.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s record high of 11,283.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,100.00 and then at 11,000. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 183 6/32 and then at 184 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 181 23/32 and then at this week’s low of 181 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 140.13.0 and then at 140.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 140.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 139.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 16-month high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1892 and then at this week’s high of 1.1926. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at 1.1731. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a five-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $42.22 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears are in control amid non-threatening U.S. weather and good-looking corn and soybean crops in the U.S., as well as plentiful global wheat supplies. The next big news event for the grain markets will be next Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff