Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, July 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Focus at mid-week is on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) that began meeting Tuesday to discuss U.S. monetary policy and ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. No changes in policy are expected but the Fed is expected to reiterate U.S. interest rates will remain low for a long time amid the challenges of dealing with the pandemic. As always, the FOMC statement and comments from Powell will be closely scrutinized. The Federal Reserve on Tuesday extended by three months (until December) some emergency lending programs.

U.S. stock indexes have been supported recently by corporate earnings reports that have generally beat market expectations.

Meantime, Republican senators are presently splintered regarding a new stimulus package for Americans, heading into their August recess.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently trading around the 0.59% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, advance economic indicators, pending home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,246.75 and then at last week’s high of 3,284.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,191.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in firm overall technical control. However, the higher volatility at higher price levels is one clue of a topping process. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 10,758.50 and then at 10,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 10,401. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 181 30/32 and then at 182 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 179 30/32 and then at 179 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.25.0 and then at 140.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.08.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher and near this week’s nearly two-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1794 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at this week’s low of 1.1655. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out again. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.93 and then at the July high of $42.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $40.48 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears are having the better week, so far. Non-threatening U.S. weather and deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations are bearish. Wheat and soybeans are still in price uptrends on the daily charts, but just barely. It could be that rallies in other raw commodity markets, such as the metals, could invite some fresh speculative interest in the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, with European indexes mostly weaker and Asian indexes mostly firmer. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. One market analyst summed up the recent stock market strength in the face of rising Covid-19 infections and a “second wave” by saying markets seem to be pricing in a return to normalcy by the end of the year, largely on hopes of a proven vaccine by then. Those market participants “taking the other side of that trade” wonder when markets will start pricing in a worsening pandemic situation and no successful vaccine on the horizon. Some argue gold and silver markets are now pricing in the latter notion.

The feature in the global marketplace this week is gold and silver prices surging to record and seven-year highs, respectively. Nearby Comex gold futures hit a new high of $1,974.70 an ounce overnight. Silver futures hit a high of $26.275. Both metals then backed off on some normal profit taking by the shorter-term futures traders. Bullish fundamental drivers of the rallies in the precious metals include a continued rise in Covid-19 infections in major industrialized countries and new shutdowns, a pending U.S. government stimulus package totaling $1 trillion, a depreciating U.S. dollar index that hit a nearly two-year low this week, rising U.S.-China political tensions, and a surge in buying of gold-back exchange traded funds.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss U.S. monetary policy. No changes in policy are expected but the Fed is expected to reiterate U.S. interest rates will remain low for a long time amid the challenges of dealing with the pandemic.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $41.35 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer on a corrective bounce after hitting a nearly two-year low Monday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently trading around the 0.6% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the S&P-Core Logic-Shiller home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,246.75 and then at last week’s high of 3,284.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,191.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in firm overall technical control. However, the higher volatility at higher price levels is one clue of a topping process. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 10,758.50 and then at 10,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 10,401. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 181 even and then at last week’s high of 181 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 179 30/32 and then at 179 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.25.0 and then at 140.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.08.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower after hitting a nearly two-year high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1794 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at this week’s low of 1.1655. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out again. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $42.51 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. There were surprisingly large increases in the good to excellent U.S. corn and soybean crop condition ratings released Monday afternoon by USDA. That’s pressuring those markets and wheat is following. Non-threatening U.S. weather and deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations are also bearish. Wheat and soybeans are still in price uptrends on the daily charts, however.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. shares are boosted in part on weekend news that a $1 trillion U.S. government economic stimulus plan is moving through the legislative process more quickly than expected.

The feature in the marketplace to start the trading week is gold prices surging to a record high of $1,941.90, basis nearby Comex futures (as of this writing), and silver futures hitting a seven-year high of $24.82. A continued surge in Covid-19 infections in major industrialized countries, a new U.S. government stimulus package totaling $1 trillion, a slumping U.S. dollar index that hit a nearly two-year low overnight, rising U.S.-China trade tensions, and a big surge in buying of gold-back exchange traded funds, including the Robinhood platform, are propelling the safe-haven metals sharply higher. Said one broker in a morning email dispatch: “Investors see holding gold as offering less risk than other instruments while enjoying upside momentum.”

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss U.S. monetary policy. No changes in policy are expected but the Fed is expected to reiterate U.S. interest rates will remain low for a long time amid the challenges of dealing with the pandemic.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly down and hit a nearly two-year low overnight. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently dipping a bit and trading around the 0.58% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a four-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,250.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,284.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,191.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in firm overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the 10,600.00 and then at 10,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,401.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,301. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and trading close to last week’s 4.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 181 30/32 and then at 182 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 180 31/32 and then at 180 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s 4.5-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.25.0 and then at 140.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.17.0 and then at last week’s low of 139.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a nearly two-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1750 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at today’s low of 1.1655. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out again. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $42.51 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading.  The big surge in precious metals markets is inviting some speculator buying interest in the grains. However, good U.S. growing conditions in the U.S. Midwest and deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations are bearish. Soybean futures are maintaining a near-term price uptrend. Same goes for wheat. My bias is that if corn continues to languish, the upside will be limited for soybeans and wheat. Here’s a wild card: It could be that some countries could start stockpiling historically cheap grains in the coming weeks. That could put, or maybe has put, market bottoms in place for the grains, and could even see price uptrends developing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener to end the trading week. As expected China has retaliated against the U.S. for closing China’s consulate in Houston, Texas this week by kicking the Americans out of their consulate in Chengdu, China. The world’s two largest economies continue on a downward spiral in their already-tense relationship. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday also delivered a harsh speech on China, coming close to suggesting a regime change.

At mid-week there were slightly upbeat ideas of another U.S. government financial aid package to Americans coming soon. However, reports said the Republican members of the Senate have scrapped their initial plan over disagreements with the Trump administration. Now, hopes for a new aid plan for consumers before the August congressional recess appear dim. This is also a negative for equities markets.

In overnight news, Russia’s central bank lowered its main interest rate by 0.25%, to 4.25%. The central bank said it may have to lower rates again, adding that it expects Russian GDP to be at -4.5 to -5.5% in 2020.

The Euro zone got some more better-than-expected economic news Friday, as its flash composite purchasing managers index came in at 54.8 in July versus expectations of 51.0. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early trading after hitting a 1.5-year low overnight. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.58% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the services PMI, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on some profit taking from recent gains that saw prices hit a five-month high Thursday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a four-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,239.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,384.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,190.25 and then at 3,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on some profit taking. Bulls remain in firm overall technical control, but a bearish weekly low close on Friday would suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 10,597.00 and then at 10,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,377.25 and then at 10,250. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 181 30/32 and then at 182 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 180 31/32 and then at 180 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 4.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.25.0 and then at 140.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.16.0 and then at this week’s low of 139.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1640 and then at 1.1675. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.1553 and then at 1.1500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart is in place, but just barely. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.51 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains non-threatening. U.S.-China relations are deteriorating. Those elements are bearish. Soybean futures are maintaining a near-term price uptrend but bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive. Same goes for wheat. My bias is that if corn continues to languish, the upside will be limited for soybeans and wheat. Here’s a wild card: It could be that some countries could start stockpiling historically cheap grains in the coming weeks. That could put, or maybe has put, market bottoms in place for the grains, and could even see price uptrends developing.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff