Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, July 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. equities are leading the global bourses higher amid better-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings reports. The Nasdaq index closed at a record high close on Monday. Traders and investors are weighing the rising Covid-19 infections in many countries, including the U.S., but also the positive news that three companies are reporting very good progress on developing a vaccine that could come to consumers for use by the end of this year and maybe as soon as September.

European Union officials finally agreed upon a contentious $2 trillion economic rescue spending plan that centers on the bloc issuing common bonds for the first time ever. Ironically, the common bond issuance could make the EU more cohesive in coming years, after recent turbulent years that saw the U.K. leave the union.

A feature in the marketplace this week is the silver market that has soared well above $20.00 an ounce and hit a four-year high overnight. Longer-term charts suggest there is still much more upside price potential for silver.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $41.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker in early trading. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.61% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the Chicago Fed national activity index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a five-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a four-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,300.00 and then at 3,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,241.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,190.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and very close to the record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control and have gained fresh power this week, to suggest more upside in the near term. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 11,058.50 and then at 11,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,932.50 and then at 10,750. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 180 24/32 and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 179 3/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.18.0 and then at the July high of 139.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.10.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1484 and then at 1.1500. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1416 and then at 1.1391. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 4.5-month high in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has been restarted and bulls have momentum now. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $43.00 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed but mostly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new today. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is benign and much less threatening than two weeks ago. That’s bearish, especially for corn. China is still stepping up and buying U.S. grains—mostly soybeans–and that has supported U.S. beans. Wheat futures have backed off sharply this week as corn prices drift lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. China’s mainland stock market rallied as that country’s economy is shifting into a higher gear from it’s late-winter lockdown. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The debate in the U.S. is intensifying on whether to roll back the opening of businesses in some states that are experiencing a spike in Covid-19 cases and as public schools are set to reopening in a few weeks. More than 140,000 Americans have died from the virus. This week, the $600 government unemployment checks many American workers were getting expires, unless Congress extends the benefits. The U.S. Congress returns to work this week and will debate another round of stimulus measures for American workers. Attention of the marketplace is also on a contentious meeting of European Union officials regarding a Covid-19 economic recovery plan. The officials have been meeting since Friday to hammer out a plan but have yet to do so. All of the above have taken risk appetite out of much of the marketplace.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $40.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.61% level.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 3,233.25 and then at 3,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,175.00 and then at 3,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. While bulls remain in overall technical control, prices recently scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 10,700.00 and then at 10,766.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,500 and then at last week’s low of 10,358. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 180 24/32 and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 179 3/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.18.0 and then at the July high of 139.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.10.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1481 and then at 1.1500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1426 and then at 1.1391. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the July high of $41.26 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has turned benign and much less threatening. That’s bearish, especially for corn. Concerns over U.S.-China deteriorating trade relations are also somewhat negative. However, China is still stepping up and buying U.S. grains—mostly soybeans–and that has supported U.S. beans. Wheat futures have been amid worries about shrinking world supplies. However, wheat prices are not likely to rally much more if corn continues to languish at lower levels.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors this week were trying to weigh conflicting forces: the bearish aspects of rising Covid-19 cases that may force more businesses to close again, as well as escalating U.S.-China tensions, and the bullish specter of major global economies that are recovering from pandemic shutdowns faster than most had reckoned. Notions that a vaccine for Covid-19 is coming much sooner that experts had initially predicted are also a bullish element for global stock markets.

Major U.S. banks this week said they have set aside billions of dollars of reserves, which suggests those banks think U.S. economic conditions will deteriorate again. Netflix on Thursday warned that its subscription growth rate could slow the rest of this year.

Gold and silver markets, as well as U.S. Treasuries, have benefitted recently from safe-haven demand that still exists among market participants.

Meantime, European leaders met Friday to discuss a $2 trillion spending plan to boost the Euro zone economy hit by the pandemic.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $40.40 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.62% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,233.25 and then at 3,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,175.00 and then at 3,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. While bulls remain in overall technical control, Monday’s price action scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 10,698.25 and then at 10,766.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,475 and then at this week’s low of 10,358. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 180 24/32 and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 179 3/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.18.0 and then at the July high of 139.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.12.5 and then at this week’s low of 139.00.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1467 and then at 1.1500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1391 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.26 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather market scare in the U.S. Corn Belt has evaporated and crop conditions in the U.S. look pretty good now. That’s bearish. So are concerns over U.S.-China deteriorating trade relations. However, China is still stepping up and buying U.S. grains. But the fact that corn and soybeans cannot find good buying interest from the increased buying from China is very worrisome for the bulls. Wheat futures are boosted amid worries about shrinking world supplies.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. There are growing worries the surge in Covid-19 reported infections worldwide, including in the U.S., will force economies to be locked down again. U.S. markets are likely to be impacted by a very busy day of economic reports and earnings releases.

China became the first major economy to come out of contraction when it on Thursday reported better-than-expected second-quarter GDP at up 3.2% versus -6.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year. A 2.4% rise was forecast for the second quarter. China’s industrial production rose 4.8% in June versus up 4.4% in May. However, China’s retail sales in June were reported at -1.8% versus -2.8% in May. Despite the generally upbeat news, China’s main stock index, the Shanghai composite, fell by 4.5% and the sharpest drop since February.

The European Central Bank meets today and is expected to keep its emergency bond buying program and benchmark rates unchanged. Much of the potential future support for the European Union economy is contingent on the outcome of discussions over the 750 billion Euro recovery fund that start Friday.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $40.80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer after hitting a five-week low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.62% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing index, Treasury international capital data, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,233.25 and then at 3,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,150.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,119.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. While bulls remain in overall technical control, Monday’s price action scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 10,600.00 and then at the overnight high of 10,698.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,358 and then at 10,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 180 24/32 and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 179 3/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.16.5 and then at the July high of 139.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.00.5 and then at 138.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower on profit taking after hitting a four-month high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1433 and then at this week’s high of 1.1467. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1392 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.26 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather market scare in the U.S. Corn Belt has evaporated and the concerns over U.S.-China deteriorating trade relations are bearish for corn and soybeans. However, wheat futures have taken off amid worries about shrinking world supplies. Beware, however, that there is stiff overhead longer-term technical resistance in wheat futures markets that could stop the rallies.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff