Daily Morning Report

Friday, July 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading, including in China, where an eight-session winning streak in the Shanghai composite index was halted Friday. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite has receded late this week, on growing ideas the U.S. and global economies’ heretofore rapid recoveries are now stalling out. More and more market participants are reckoning global stock markets have rallied too far, too fast, given current, general economic and business conditions.

Said one stock market analyst in a Friday morning email dispatch: “While global equities blissfully ignored the deteriorating economic conditions around the world in the previous quarter, the moment of reckoning could arrive when the U.S. earnings season kicks off next week. The second-quarter results are set to lay bare the pandemic’s impact to a greater extent compared to the previous quarter’s figures and this could prove to be one of Wall Street’s worst earnings seasons. It remains to be seen whether market participants have the stomach to digest such despairing numbers.”

One explanation for the global stock markets’ surprising strength in the face of the pandemic is the huge influx of stimulative cash from central banks that saw part of the cash flow into the stock markets.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $38.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has dipped this week and is currently around the 0.58% level—the lowest since April. The increasing investor demand for U.S. Treasuries suggests “flight-to-quality” moves amid growing uneasiness in the marketplace. Gold this week also benefitted from more safe-haven trader and investor demand.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,184.00 and then at 3,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,105.25 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 10,774.25 and then at 10,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,600 and then at 10,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a 2.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 181 14/32 and then at 182 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 179 31/32 and then at 179 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer and hit a more-than-three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.22.5 and then at 139.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.10.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1386 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1270 and then at this week’s low of 1.1236. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart appears to be rolling over. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $39.81 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $38.50 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. A weather market is playing out in the U.S. Corn Belt, as weather forecasts are now a bit more bullish, calling for drier and warmer conditions the next couple weeks. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Look for active trading in the grains today, and with an upside bias.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly up in overnight trading. China’s stock market continues on a roll as its main index, the Shanghai composite, rose for the eighth session in a row and is up 15% since the beginning of July. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor appetite has pulled back a bit late this week, on notions the U.S. and global economies may be stalling out from their rapid initial recoveries from the Covid-19-induced damage. Several Federal Reserve officials this week issued warnings that U.S. economic growth could be running out of steam amid the resurgence of Covid infections that has caused some states to shut down businesses again.

China’s currency, the yuan, has this week surged to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since March, as China’s economic recovery and growth is apparently outpacing that of the U.S. economy. It’s no secret that the Chinese government wants to unseat the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Safe-haven gold is benefitting from the keener worries in the marketplace as prices this week have hit a nine-year high and are closing in on the all-time high of $1,920 an ounce scored in 2011.

Said one stock market analyst in a morning email dispatch: “Fundamentals and valuations appear to be of limited influence on investors’ decision making. The fear of missing out, monetary and fiscal policy actions, low yields, lower interest rates for longer, are some of the factors that have led to this structural change in markets. If the Fed can keep zombie companies alive by keeping the lending taps open, why wouldn’t investors profit from these actions? However, the Fed cannot keep running these measures forever, and for many corporates relying on debt to stay afloat, sooner or later they will fail if they can’t return to profitability.”

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday reported the U.S. government spending in June was triple that of the same period last year.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $40.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.65% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, monthly retail chain store sales, and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,184.00 and then at 3,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,105.75 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 10,714.25 and then at 10,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,600 and then at 10,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 179 12/32 and then at the June high of 179 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 178 19/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices trade sideways at higher levels. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.10.5 and then at last week’s high of 139.14.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1386 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at this week’s low of 1.1236. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.08 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $39.84 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. A weather market is still playing out in the U.S. Corn Belt, as weather forecasts are now “flip-flopping,” which is not unusual in the summertime in the Midwest. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA weekly export sales report and then Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. China’s stock market continues to surge following a government-owned media story telling Chinese investors it’s time to buy shares. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Many global stock markets have paused at mid-week following recent rallies. It could be that the alarming rise in Covid-19 cases in some countries, including the U.S., has finally dented trader and investor risk appetite. The U.S. reported a daily record of 60,000 new Covid cases on Tuesday.

Gold prices hit a nearly nine-year high overnight on safe-haven demand amid the rise in Covid-19 infections and on worries about the longer-term ramifications of central banks opening up their spigots of free-flowing cash into their financial systems. Gold bulls are reckoning the piper will be paid at some point down the road.

In other news, President Trump is now pressuring U.S. state governors to open public schools in the fall, in an effort to further reopen the U.S. economy.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $40.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.65% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the consumer credit report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,184.00 and then at 3,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,105.75 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 10,694.50 and then at 10,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,500 and then at 10,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 179 12/32 and then at the June high of 179 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at 179 even and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices trade sideways at higher levels. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.10.5 and then at last week’s high of 139.14.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1311 and then at 1.1350. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1236 and then at this week’s low of 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.08 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $39.84 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. While a weather market is still playing out in the U.S. Corn Belt, updated forecasts have backed off a bit on the heat and added some better rain chances. However, remember that weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest in the summertime can and do change on a dime.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Global equities markets on Tuesday are seeing corrective pullbacks and profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders, following recent solid gains. There were also some downbeat economic projections released Tuesday from the OECD think tank and the European Commission. The OECD said global unemployment in 2020 will be the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The EC said the Euro zone economy will shrink by 8.3% this year, which is a greater decline than its earlier forecast of minus 7.4%. German industrial production also came in weaker than expected today.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $40.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.67% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the IBD-TIPP economic optimism index. Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to give speeches today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback and profit taking. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,184.00 and then at 3,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Monday’s low of 3,105.75 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a record high overnight. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 10,664.50 and then at 10,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,500 and then at 10,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 178 28/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 177 6/32 and then at 177 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices trade sideways at higher levels. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 139.07.5 and then at last week’s high of 139.14.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 138.23.5 and then at 138.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1364 and then at 1.1371. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1236 and then at this week’s low of 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $41.08 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Monday’s low of $39.84 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Still, a weather market is developing in the U.S. Corn Belt that could produce price uptrends in the near term. Speculators are getting more interested in the long side of the grain markets, along with the big “fund” shorts in the market having to capitulate.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff