Daily Morning Report

Friday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors this week were trying to weigh conflicting forces: the bearish aspects of rising Covid-19 cases that may force more businesses to close again, as well as escalating U.S.-China tensions, and the bullish specter of major global economies that are recovering from pandemic shutdowns faster than most had reckoned. Notions that a vaccine for Covid-19 is coming much sooner that experts had initially predicted are also a bullish element for global stock markets.

Major U.S. banks this week said they have set aside billions of dollars of reserves, which suggests those banks think U.S. economic conditions will deteriorate again. Netflix on Thursday warned that its subscription growth rate could slow the rest of this year.

Gold and silver markets, as well as U.S. Treasuries, have benefitted recently from safe-haven demand that still exists among market participants.

Meantime, European leaders met Friday to discuss a $2 trillion spending plan to boost the Euro zone economy hit by the pandemic.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $40.40 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.62% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,233.25 and then at 3,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,175.00 and then at 3,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. While bulls remain in overall technical control, Monday’s price action scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 10,698.25 and then at 10,766.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,475 and then at this week’s low of 10,358. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 180 24/32 and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 179 3/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.18.0 and then at the July high of 139.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.12.5 and then at this week’s low of 139.00.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1467 and then at 1.1500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1391 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.26 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather market scare in the U.S. Corn Belt has evaporated and crop conditions in the U.S. look pretty good now. That’s bearish. So are concerns over U.S.-China deteriorating trade relations. However, China is still stepping up and buying U.S. grains. But the fact that corn and soybeans cannot find good buying interest from the increased buying from China is very worrisome for the bulls. Wheat futures are boosted amid worries about shrinking world supplies.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. There are growing worries the surge in Covid-19 reported infections worldwide, including in the U.S., will force economies to be locked down again. U.S. markets are likely to be impacted by a very busy day of economic reports and earnings releases.

China became the first major economy to come out of contraction when it on Thursday reported better-than-expected second-quarter GDP at up 3.2% versus -6.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year. A 2.4% rise was forecast for the second quarter. China’s industrial production rose 4.8% in June versus up 4.4% in May. However, China’s retail sales in June were reported at -1.8% versus -2.8% in May. Despite the generally upbeat news, China’s main stock index, the Shanghai composite, fell by 4.5% and the sharpest drop since February.

The European Central Bank meets today and is expected to keep its emergency bond buying program and benchmark rates unchanged. Much of the potential future support for the European Union economy is contingent on the outcome of discussions over the 750 billion Euro recovery fund that start Friday.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $40.80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer after hitting a five-week low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.62% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing index, Treasury international capital data, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,233.25 and then at 3,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,150.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,119.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. While bulls remain in overall technical control, Monday’s price action scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 10,600.00 and then at the overnight high of 10,698.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,358 and then at 10,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 180 24/32 and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 179 3/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.16.5 and then at the July high of 139.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.00.5 and then at 138.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower on profit taking after hitting a four-month high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1433 and then at this week’s high of 1.1467. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1392 and then at 1.1350. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $41.26 and then at the June high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather market scare in the U.S. Corn Belt has evaporated and the concerns over U.S.-China deteriorating trade relations are bearish for corn and soybeans. However, wheat futures have taken off amid worries about shrinking world supplies. Beware, however, that there is stiff overhead longer-term technical resistance in wheat futures markets that could stop the rallies.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for the marketplace, as corporate earnings, central bank meetings and GDP data from China are due. Big banks’ earnings are due out today, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. U.S. traders and investors are keeping a wary eye on the spread of Covid-19 cases in the country, as California on Monday moved to again lock down indoor businesses.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, Tuesday reported its imports of U.S. goods increased 11.3% in June, year on year, after a 13.5% decline in May. Chinese exports to the U.S. rose 1.4% in the period, versus a 1.3% drop in May. China’s imports from the rest of the world were up 2.7% in June, year on year, following a drop of 16.7% in May. China’s overall exports were up 0.5% in June versus a 3.3% drop in May. These latest trade numbers from China were stronger than expected and highlight the rapid economic recovery China has seen from the pandemic lockdowns.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone got another upbeat economic report today when its industrial production report for May came in at up 12.4% from April—a record monthly rise.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $39.80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.63% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, real earnings, and the consumer price index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 3,184.00 and then at Monday’s high of 3,226.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,105.25 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. While bulls remain in firm overall technical control, Monday’s price action scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 10,693.00 and then at 10,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,500 and then at 10,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 180 11/32 and then at 181 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 178 31/32 and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.13.0 and then at 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 139.07.5 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1392 and then at the June high of 1.1447. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1340 and then at 1.1300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart appears to be rolling over. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $40.72 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at last week’s low of $38.54. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading, as corn and soybean bulls try to stabilize prices that have dropped sharply. The weather market scare in the U.S. Corn Belt has fizzled and there are renewed concerns over U.S.-China trade relations. Grain market bulls are back in their pens at present.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for the marketplace, as corporate earnings, central bank meetings and GDP data from China are due.

Equities traders and investors on Monday are once again looking past the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw a record number of daily infections reported over the weekend in Florida, and instead looking at improving global economies and generally better-than-expected economic data being reported as businesses around the globe are reopening from their springtime lockdowns.

Rising tensions between the U.S. and China are not yet back on the front burner of the marketplace, but they are close. The world’s two largest economies continue to trade barbs and levy sanctions on each other.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has dipped this week and is currently around the 0.6% level.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday, but pace picks up rapidly Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,202.75 and then at the June high of 3,220.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,105.25 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 10,917.00 and then at 11,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,800 and then at 10,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 180 1/32 and then at 180 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 179 even and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.10.0 and then at 139.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.04.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1386 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1318 and then at 1.1270. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart appears to be rolling over. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.53 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at last week’s low of $38.54. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on concerns over U.S.-China relations. A weather market is still playing out in the U.S. Corn Belt, but current weather forecasts are now a bit less bullish. Remember, however, that Corn Belt weather forecasters have been doing a lot of flip-flopping lately. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA weekly export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff