Stock market bulls must be on Santa’s naughty list. The U.S. indexes early Wednesday hit new contract highs and new highs for the year. However, Wednesday afternoon then backed off sharply and scored bearish “key reversals” down on the daily bar charts. That’s one technical clue that near-term market tops are in place for the indexes. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Key U.S. inflation data Friday
Friday, December 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. economic data point of the day is the personal income and outlays report for November and its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, which the Federal Reserve watches closely. The core PCE index is expected to be up 3.3%, year-on-year compared to up 3.5% in the October report.
The Houthi missile and drone attacks on random ships in the Red Sea have prompted renewed inflation worries. And there are also worries about drought impacting the Panama Canal. Barrons today reported “ocean freight rates are surging, putting pressure on companies that rely on cheap shipping.” A U.S.-led military contingent is set to guard the Red Sea shipping route, but major shippers are leery that the contingent can stop every attack.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $74.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.867%.
Other U.S. economic data due out today includes durable goods orders, new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract high and yearly high early Wednesday. However, prices then scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,830.75 and then at 4,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at the contract high of 17,073.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,758.50 and then at 16,600. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 30/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 even and then at this week’s low of 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a four-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.04.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at this week’s low of 112.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1070 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.37 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $72.44 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were near steady overnight. Look for quieter pre-holiday trading today. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Bearish chart clue for U.S. stock indexes
Thursday, December 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The sell off in the U.S. stock market Wednesday afternoon may have been due in part to worries about rising inflation as major shipping companies are now re-routing their vessels around one major shipping route—the Red Sea—due to Houthi attacks on ships. The new routes are much longer and will likely raise the cost of consumer goods. Reads a Dow Jones Newswire headline today: “Higher costs due to Red Sea disruptions expected to weigh on consumers.” There are also worries that a major U.S. military presence in the Middle East, including the Red Sea, could find the U.S. in a direct military conflict with Iran, which backs the Houthis.
In other news, China’s media has reported China’s central bank is set to cut deposit rates for its state-owned banks on Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.888%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the final estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the inflation indexes, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high and yearly high on Wednesday. Prices Wednesday scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,830.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday scored a bearish “key reversal” down, which is one clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at Wednesday’s contract high of 17,073.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,758.50 and then at 16,600. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 124 24/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.31.5 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1053 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.37 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Look for quieter pre-holiday trading the rest of this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Gold bulls in control; more upside likely
The U.S. dollar index recently hit a four-month low and prices are trending lower, to suggest still more downside pressure on the greenback in the coming weeks, or longer. U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields are back below 4% and trending down. The U.S. economy appears to be in a “goldilocks” position at present—whereby inflation is cooling and the economy appears to be growing steadily but is not too hot. The above factors should continue to favor the precious metals market bulls for at least the early of the coming new year.
Geopolitics is always near the front burner of the general marketplace. The Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict that continue to play out could at any time significantly escalate to involve other major countries and produce keen anxiety and risk aversion in the marketplace. Those are the “known unknowns.” There is always the specter of the “unknown unknowns” that can come out of the blue and quickly roil the marketplace. If either occurs, gold prices would likely quickly push strongly higher, including a new record high being set.
The potential bearish elements for the gold market in the coming months could be continued anemic economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Recent economic data out of China has been mostly downbeat, including a very troubled housing and property sector. China is a major consumer of metals.
Another bearish factor for the gold market is down-trending crude oil prices at present. In mid-December Nymex crude dropped to a nearly six-month low of $67.71 a barrel. As long as raw commodity sector leader crude oil sees its prices trending lower, any rallies in other commodity markets, including the metals, will very likely be limited.
The new year will find gold traders continuing to closely scrutinize the monetary policies of the major central banks of the world. Any resurgence of global inflation in 2024 would find the central banks quickly putting the brakes on their just recently more accommodative tone on money policies. Such a scenario would be a gold market rally-killer.
In the coming weeks, and barring any unexpected geopolitical flare-up, I see gold prices trading in a sideways range between $2,000 and $2,100. For the majority of 2024, I look for choppy trading in gold, but with a slight upside bias.
Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Quieter marketplace at mid-week
Wednesday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.888%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, the consumer confidence index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Q3 international transactions and current account data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but hit a contract high and yearly high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,824.25 and then at 4,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,787.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,769.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower but hit a contract high and high for the year overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 17,046.00 and then at 17,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,802.25 and then at 16,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1029 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Quieter pre-holiday trading so far this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock indexes near yearly highs
Tuesday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the U.S. military is leading a coalition of around a dozen other countries to protect shipping vessels from missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea, which is a major global shipping route.
In other news, the Eurozone November consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $72.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.909%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction and Treasury international capital data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,802.25 and then at 4,835.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,769.50 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at 17,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 16,802.25 and then at 16,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.26 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Quieter pre-holiday trading so far this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff