Daily Morning Report

Thursday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher, at new contract highs and new highs for the year, when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record-high close Wednesday.

The marketplace got a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Wednesday. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, the committee and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pivoted from their heretofore hawkish rhetoric of a tight monetary policy and toward loosening policy, including future interest rate cuts. The Fed’s “dot plots” now indicate three interest rate cuts (totaling 0.75%) in 2024. Markets cheered the Fed news as the U.S. stock indexes hit new highs for the year, gold prices soared back above $2,000, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and Treasury yields declined. The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped below 4%. The now much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace should work to support further gains in equities and commodity markets for at least the near term. A Barrons headline today reads: “Markets rejoice as Fed doves take flight….”

The Bank of England held its monetary policy steady at is regular meeting today. The European Central Bank was meeting as of this writing.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, on follow-through selling pressure from Wednesday’s sharp losses. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $71.00 a barrel, after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.974%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales, import and export price indexes, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,781.25 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,725.00 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit another contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 16,576.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 25/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 121 23/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.23.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.31.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.96 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.54 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is the U.S. producer price index report for November, which is seen coming in at up 0.1% from the previous month and compares to the 0.5% decline seen in the October PPI report. Tuesday’s consumer price index report for November came in very close to market expectations.

Focus is now on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, it’s also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished. Still, many market watchers expect the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates by mid-year in 2024.

In other news, China’ annual economic conference produced no significant stimulus measures to boost the world’s second-largest economy. That put Asian investors in downbeat moods at mid-week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $68.50 a barrel after hitting a 5.5-month low overnight. The down-trending crude oil market is casting a pall over much of the raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.187%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,738.50 and then at 4,775.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,652.00 and then at 4,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,700.00 and then at 16,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,396.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 9/32 and then at the December high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at this week’s low of 118 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at the December high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.07.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0875 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0770 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at this week’s high of $71.96. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.71 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The bearish crude oil market is weighing on the grains. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, reports said a missile struck a Norwegian ship in the Red Sea and was fired by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Oil prices showed little reaction.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the consumer price index report for November, which is expected to come in at up 3.1% compared to the October CPI rising 3.2%. The “core” CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen coming in up 4.0%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 4.0% in the October report. Recent economic data from the world’s major economies has generally shown cooling inflation.

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged. However, it’s also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean a bit hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $71.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.193%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly Treasury budget statement and real earnings.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a four-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,700.00 and then at the July high of 4,738.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,652.00 and then at 4,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,492.50 and then at 16,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,256.25 and then at 16,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at the December high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 31/32 and then at this week’s low of 118 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 111.00.0 and then at the December high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.09.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at last week’s low of 1.0770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.50 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $68.80. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly firmer overnight. Not much new. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff