Daily Morning Report

Monday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are near their highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter to start the week as the holiday season approaches.

In overnight news, shipping companies have stopped routing their ocean vessels through the Red Sea because of the recent missile attacks by Houthi rebels. That has put a slight bid into the crude oil markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.902%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near last week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near last week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,887.25 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly higher when the New York day session begins. The indexes are near this week’s contract highs and highs for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record high Thursday. The stock and financial markets are still basking in the glow of Wednesday’s surprisingly dovish U.S. monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.

In overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. Investment and consumer spending in November increased less than expected. New home sales fell at a faster pace in November, too. After the disappointing economic data, China’s central bank kept its key policy rates unchanged, but did pump 800 billion yuan ($112 billion) of liquidity into the banking system. That was the biggest-ever central bank infusion of one-year loans to banks.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI).

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 30/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher and not far below this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1053 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to narrowly mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher, at new contract highs and new highs for the year, when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record-high close Wednesday.

The marketplace got a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Wednesday. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, the committee and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pivoted from their heretofore hawkish rhetoric of a tight monetary policy and toward loosening policy, including future interest rate cuts. The Fed’s “dot plots” now indicate three interest rate cuts (totaling 0.75%) in 2024. Markets cheered the Fed news as the U.S. stock indexes hit new highs for the year, gold prices soared back above $2,000, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and Treasury yields declined. The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped below 4%. The now much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace should work to support further gains in equities and commodity markets for at least the near term. A Barrons headline today reads: “Markets rejoice as Fed doves take flight….”

The Bank of England held its monetary policy steady at is regular meeting today. The European Central Bank was meeting as of this writing.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, on follow-through selling pressure from Wednesday’s sharp losses. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $71.00 a barrel, after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.974%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales, import and export price indexes, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,781.25 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,725.00 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit another contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 16,576.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 25/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 121 23/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.23.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.31.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.96 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.54 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

On tap today is the U.S. producer price index report for November, which is seen coming in at up 0.1% from the previous month and compares to the 0.5% decline seen in the October PPI report. Tuesday’s consumer price index report for November came in very close to market expectations.

Focus is now on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will leave U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, it’s also expected the FOMC statement and Powell at his press conference will still lean hawkish by saying the inflation fight is not yet finished. Still, many market watchers expect the Fed to cut U.S. interest rates by mid-year in 2024.

In other news, China’ annual economic conference produced no significant stimulus measures to boost the world’s second-largest economy. That put Asian investors in downbeat moods at mid-week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $68.50 a barrel after hitting a 5.5-month low overnight. The down-trending crude oil market is casting a pall over much of the raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.187%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a 4.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,738.50 and then at 4,775.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,652.00 and then at 4,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,700.00 and then at 16,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,396.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 9/32 and then at the December high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at this week’s low of 118 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at the December high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.07.5 and then at this week’s low of 109.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0875 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0770 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at this week’s high of $71.96. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.71 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. The bearish crude oil market is weighing on the grains. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff