Jim Wyckoff

Dominate Your Market

Daily Morning Report

Gold bulls in control; more upside likely

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Comex gold futures prices in December hit a record high of $2,130.20 an ounce. The precious yellow metal has been and likely will continue to be supported by a depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, declining U.S. Treasury yields, major central banks leaning easier on their monetary policies, and on safe-haven demand.

The U.S. dollar index recently hit a four-month low and prices are trending lower, to suggest still more downside pressure on the greenback in the coming weeks, or longer. U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields are back below 4% and trending down. The U.S. economy appears to be in a “goldilocks” position at present—whereby inflation is cooling and the economy appears to be growing steadily but is not too hot. The above factors should continue to favor the precious metals market bulls for at least the early of the coming new year.

Geopolitics is always near the front burner of the general marketplace. The Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict that continue to play out could at any time significantly escalate to involve other major countries and produce keen anxiety and risk aversion in the marketplace. Those are the “known unknowns.” There is always the specter of the “unknown unknowns” that can come out of the blue and quickly roil the marketplace. If either occurs, gold prices would likely quickly push strongly higher, including a new record high being set.

The potential bearish elements for the gold market in the coming months could be continued anemic economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Recent economic data out of China has been mostly downbeat, including a very troubled housing and property sector. China is a major consumer of metals.

Another bearish factor for the gold market is down-trending crude oil prices at present. In mid-December Nymex crude dropped to a nearly six-month low of $67.71 a barrel. As long as raw commodity sector leader crude oil sees its prices trending lower, any rallies in other commodity markets, including the metals, will very likely be limited.

The new year will find gold traders continuing to closely scrutinize the monetary policies of the major central banks of the world. Any resurgence of global inflation in 2024 would find the central banks quickly putting the brakes on their just recently more accommodative tone on money policies. Such a scenario would be a gold market rally-killer.

In the coming weeks, and barring any unexpected geopolitical flare-up, I see gold prices trading in a sideways range between $2,000 and $2,100. For the majority of 2024, I look for choppy trading in gold, but with a slight upside bias.

Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Quieter marketplace at mid-week

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Wednesday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes this week have hit new highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter this week as the holiday season approaches.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.888%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, the consumer confidence index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Q3 international transactions and current account data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but hit a contract high and yearly high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,824.25 and then at 4,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,787.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,769.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower but hit a contract high and high for the year overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 17,046.00 and then at 17,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,802.25 and then at 16,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1029 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at this week’s low of $70.99. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Quieter pre-holiday trading so far this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. stock indexes near yearly highs

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Tuesday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes this week have hit new highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter early this week as the holiday season approaches.

In overnight news, the U.S. military is leading a coalition of around a dozen other countries to protect shipping vessels from missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea, which is a major global shipping route.

In other news, the Eurozone November consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $72.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.909%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction and Treasury international capital data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,802.25 and then at 4,835.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,769.50 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,000.00 and then at 17,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 16,802.25 and then at 16,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.06.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.26 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Quieter pre-holiday trading so far this week. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Santa Claus rally in U.S. stock indexes

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The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends on the daily bar charts amid the seasonal Santa Claus rally just ahead of the holidays. Easier central bank monetary policies and cooling inflation have put traders and investors in upbeat moods to end the year. The path of least resistance for the stock indexes will remain sideways to higher until there is a solidly bearish chart clue to suggest otherwise. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Quieter start to trading week

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Monday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly higher when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are near their highs for the year. Trading activity is quieter to start the week as the holiday season approaches.

In overnight news, shipping companies have stopped routing their ocean vessels through the Red Sea because of the recent missile attacks by Houthi rebels. That has put a slight bid into the crude oil markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.902%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near last week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near last week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,887.25 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 9/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and not far below last week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1053. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at last week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Upbeat marketplace after dovish Fed

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Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly higher when the New York day session begins. The indexes are near this week’s contract highs and highs for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record high Thursday. The stock and financial markets are still basking in the glow of Wednesday’s surprisingly dovish U.S. monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.

In overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. Investment and consumer spending in November increased less than expected. New home sales fell at a faster pace in November, too. After the disappointing economic data, China’s central bank kept its key policy rates unchanged, but did pump 800 billion yuan ($112 billion) of liquidity into the banking system. That was the biggest-ever central bank infusion of one-year loans to banks.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $71.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI).

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and near this week’s contract high and yearly high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,791.25 and then at 4,825.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,746.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s contract high and high for the year in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,628.00 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and near this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 30/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 1/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher and not far below this week’s four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.28.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.08.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1053 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $72.46 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to narrowly mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff