Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders are awaiting today’s U.S. employment situation report for November—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report. Look for higher volatility in the marketplace if the non-farm jobs number is a big miss to the upside or downside.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.50 a barrel. Prices on Wednesday hit a five-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.185%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,271.75 and then at 16,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,920.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nearly three-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 120 4/32 and then at this week’s high of 120 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a downside correction after hitting a more-than-three-month high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 111.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.12.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-month low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.29 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $68.80 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Charts are overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar chart. Seasonal studies are friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China reported its November exports were up 0.5%, year-on-year, while its imports were down 0.6% in the period. The exports were just slightly better than expected, while the imports were a bit less than expected.

Traders are starting to look ahead to the U.S. employment situation report on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report showed a modest rise of 103,000 in November, versus expectations for a gain of around 130,000.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.00 a barrel. Prices on Wednesday hit a five-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.151%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, monthly wholesale trade, and consumer credit.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,241.25 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,920.25 and then at 15,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 120 25/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 119 1/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a more-than-three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.09.5 and then at 111.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a five-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.11 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. A drop in government bond yields this week has put traders and investors in more upbeat moods. 

Traders are starting to look ahead to the U.S. employment situation report on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.205%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade in goods and services report, revised productivity and costs, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,220.25 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,920.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 22/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at this week’s low of 117 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.31.5 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets begins to suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are neutral-bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Moody’s credit rating agency cut its outlook on China’s credit rating amid the weakening economic growth outlook and property sector problems in the country. Moody’s currently rates China’s sovereign debt at A1. The agency expects China’s economic growth to slow to 4% annual GDP in 2024 and 2025. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “China’s colossal hidden-debt problem is coming to a head.”

The Eurozone October producer price index was reported down 9.4%, year-on-year, which was close to market expectations. Excluding food and energy, the PPI was down 0.2% annually.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.245%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI) the ISM report on business services, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index, and the JOLTS labor turnover survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,055.00 and then at Monday’s high of 16,220.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,920.25 and then at 15,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 117 9/32 and then at last Friday’s low of 116 13/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.28.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 110.03.5 and then at 109.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0945 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0854 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $72.37 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral-bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. 

Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week as tensions in the Middle East are on the rise. Missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea, while a U.S. warship shot down three drones in self-defense, the U.S. military said. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed two of the attacks. Meantime, Israel has resumed its military offensive in the Gaza strip.

The price of safe-haven gold hit a record high overnight, with February Comex futures hitting an intra-day new high of $2,152.30 an ounce. Prices have backed down from their daily highs just ahead of the New York day session.

Bitcoin prices overnight pushed above $41,000 and to a 20-month high, on ideas U.S. regulators are taking a more favorable view of the crypto currency.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.245%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,301.00 and then at the contract high of 16,410.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 16,057.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 118 17/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at Friday’s low of 116 13/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nine-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.28.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at 109.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0961 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0880 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $72.37 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and USDA weekly crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff