Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed to weaker and European shares mostly firmer in overnight trading, on this first day of the last month of 2023. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the truce between Israel and Hamas expired. Israel has resumed military operations in Gaza.

OPEC-plus has agreed to cut another 1 million barrels per day of its collective crude oil production, but Nymex crude oil prices Thursday sold off on the news.

The Euro zone November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 44.2 versus 43.1 in October. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.338%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales. Fed Chairman Powell is also slated to speak at a college today.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,646.50 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 16,301.00 and then at the contract high of 16,410.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,057.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 24/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.15.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday’s low of 109.22.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1035 and then at this week’s high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $73.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains, now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Eurozone inflation fell more than expected. The bloc’s November consumer price index came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, compared to up 2.9% in October and forecasts for up 2.8% in November. A Dow Jones Newswire headline today reads: “Euro zone inflation fell more than expected, putting ECB rate cuts into view.”

Meantime, China got some more dour economic news Thursday as its November official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 49.4 from 49.5 in October. That marks the second month in a row of the manufacturing PMI being below 50.0, which suggests contraction in the sector. China’s services PMI dropped to 49.3 in November from 50.1 in October.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. Reports say OPEC, at its meeting today, will make additional cuts to the cartel’s collective crude oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.29%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays that include more personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales and monthly retail chain store sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer after hitting a three-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,646.50 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,597.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s contract high of 16,410.25 and then at 16,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,142.50 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower after hitting a nine-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 24/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 116 17/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower after hitting a nine-week high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.15.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 109.29.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1035 and then at this week’s high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.46 and then at Wednesday’s low of $75.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have been negated.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news as its consumer confidence reading for November came in at plus 16.9 versus a reading of minus 17.8 in October. A reading of minus 16.9 was expected.

Meantime, Australia’s consumer price index in October was reported up 4.9%, year-on-year, versus up 5.6% in September. The October reading was lower than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.50 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. There is now no clear marketplace consensus on what OPEC will announce regarding its overall oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.286% and has fallen this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, preliminary corporate profits, the advance economic indicators report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the September high of 4,648.00 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,597.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the recent high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 16,406.50 and then at 16,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,142.50 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 16/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 116 17/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.14.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.29.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a 3.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1070 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0981 and then at 1.0941. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.36 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to firmer overnight. Not much new. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitical tensions have not escalated in recent weeks, which has calmed the general marketplace and allowed risk appetite to up-tick.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $75.75 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. However, now the consensus is that at this meeting OPEC will announce another cut in its overall production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the quarterly and monthly house price indexes, the S&P Core Logic home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,629.75 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,569.25 and then at 4,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,372.00 and then at the July high of 16,406.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 15,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 109.21.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 108.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.73 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.79 and then at the November low of $72.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff