Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news as its consumer confidence reading for November came in at plus 16.9 versus a reading of minus 17.8 in October. A reading of minus 16.9 was expected.

Meantime, Australia’s consumer price index in October was reported up 4.9%, year-on-year, versus up 5.6% in September. The October reading was lower than market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.50 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. There is now no clear marketplace consensus on what OPEC will announce regarding its overall oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.286% and has fallen this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, preliminary corporate profits, the advance economic indicators report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the September high of 4,648.00 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,597.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the recent high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 16,406.50 and then at 16,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,142.50 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 117 16/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 116 17/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.14.5 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.29.0 and then at 109.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a 3.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1070 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0981 and then at 1.0941. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.36 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to firmer overnight. Not much new. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Geopolitical tensions have not escalated in recent weeks, which has calmed the general marketplace and allowed risk appetite to up-tick.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $75.75 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. However, now the consensus is that at this meeting OPEC will announce another cut in its overall production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the quarterly and monthly house price indexes, the S&P Core Logic home price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,629.75 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,569.25 and then at 4,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,372.00 and then at the July high of 16,406.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 15,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 109.21.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 108.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0941 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.73 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.79 and then at the November low of $72.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Technicals remain overall solidly bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets are close to putting in price bottoms. Technicals are just slightly bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets’ price uptrends have stalled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. From a markets perspective, there were no major geopolitical developments over the long U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Gold futures prices hit a four-week high overnight amid the slumping U.S. dollar index. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Gold edges higher on hopes Fed’s tightening cycle may be over.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $74.25 a barrel. An OPEC-plus meeting takes place this week. Reports say there have been cartel member disagreements on whether to further cut collective crude oil production. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Oil prices are falling; OPEC is reaching the limits of its power.” The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.447%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes new residential sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,629.75 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,569.25 and then at 4,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,372.00 and then at the July high of 16,406.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 16,040.00 and then at 16,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at last week’s high of 116 18/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 17/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.00.0 and then at last Friday’s high of 109.11.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.18.5 and then at 108.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the November high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at last low of 1.0910 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $75.72 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.79 and then at the November low of $72.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock and financial markets close early today, due to the Thanksgiving holiday that was Thursday. Today is typically one of the quietest trading days of the year as many U.S. market participants stretch out a four-day weekend.

In overnight news, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day ceasefire, with Israel agreeing to stop its military actions in Gaza, while Hamas releases some of the Israeli hostages in exchange. Risk appetite in the marketplace is up-ticked the past few weeks, as the Middle East conflict has not escalated (at least not yet) the way many market watchers thought it might.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The OPEC-plus meeting originally scheduled for this weekend has been moved back to next week, reportedly due to disagreements on whether to further cut the cartel’s collective crude oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.465%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI).

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,580.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,520.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,173.50 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,837.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at this week’s high of 116 18/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 27/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.11.5 and then at this week’s high of 109.21.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.25.0 and then at 108.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0910 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at this week’s low of $73.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

There was no grain futures trading overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new recently. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff