Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, May 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Those Asian and European stock markets that were open overnight were mixed in very quiet trading. Most overseas markets in European and Asia were closed for the May Day holiday today. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. economic data highlight of the week is today’s conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this meeting. However, as usual, the FOMC statement and Powell’s comments will be parsed by the marketplace for clues on the timing of future monetary policy changes, and on inflation prospects.

Another important U.S. economic report released today is the ADP national employment report for April, which is forecast to come in at up 177,000. This report is a precursor to the more important employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index down again on more profit taking after hitting a two-year high last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $63.50 a barrel.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market early this week is recovering from the sharp sell off seen late last week. Bulls are working to keep a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Price action the rest of this week is likely to be extra important for direction in the coming weeks. See the support and resistance lines on the chart. The direction in which prices move above the resistance line or below the support line will likely determine the price trend at least into mid-summer. Stay tuned! Remember, my daily reports will provide you those early chart clues on price trend changes, or acceleration.

Tuesday, April 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in more subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are near record or multi-month highs amid solid near-term price uptrends being in place.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its gross domestic product growth for the first quarter at 1.5%, year-on-year, which is better than the 0.9% growth rate seen in the fourth quarter and better than forecast. The Euro zone also reported its jobless rate at the lowest level in over 10 years.

The U.S. economic data pace picks up starting today, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins this morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this meeting.

U.S.-China trade talks resume today, with U.S. officials in Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said in an interview late Monday that the talks are near conclusion and could wrap up next week. He added there remains some work to do on the matter, however. Most of the marketplace is fairly optimistic the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal in the coming weeks.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index down on profit taking after hitting a two-year high last Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $64.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the employment cost index, the S&P-Cash-Shiller home price index, the ISM Chicago business survey, the consumer confidence index, and pending home sales.

–Jim

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Monday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were narrowly mixed in more subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be little activity on the geopolitical front to influence world markets, making for a generally calmer and quieter trading environment. The U.S. stock indexes last week hit record or multi-month highs amid upbeat corporate earnings reports being released.

It will likely be a busier trading week this week, as the U.S. economic data pace picks up, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. No change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this meeting.

U.S. corporate earnings reports will also continue to be released this week.

U.S.-China trade talks also resume this week, with U.S. officials traveling to Beijing. Most of the marketplace is optimistic the U.S. and China will reach a plausible trade deal in the coming weeks.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index trading near steady after hitting a two-year high last Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on more profit taking after hitting a six-month high last week, and are now trading around $62.75 a barrel. Oil prices dropped sharply late last week due in part to remarks from President trump saying he told OPEC oil prices were too high.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes personal income and outlays, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

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The Euro currency futures are trending solidly lower and this week hit a nearly two-year low. The Euro is one of the most popularly trading futures markets in the world. The bears are in solid control, to suggest more sideways-to-lower trading in the near term. Remember that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Stay tuned and read my daily reports for those early clues that suggest trend changes or price acceleration!

Friday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. economic highlight of the week due out today: the first estimate on first-quarter gross domestic product. U.S. GDP is expected to come in at up 2.5%, year-on-year.

There continues to be little activity on the geopolitical front to influence world markets, making for a generally calmer and quieter trading environment.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower after hitting a two-year high on Thursday. The strong greenback has once again sparked a bit of concern in the emerging currency markets, especially for the Turkish lira and Argentine peso. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a six-month high earlier this week, and are trading around $65.25 a barrel.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

–Jim

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