Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, April 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. With no major geopolitical hotspots in play at present, focus of traders and investors is on corporate earnings reports.

Rising oil prices that saw Nymex crude push above $66.00 a barrel and to a six-month high overnight, with Brent crude above $70.00, are getting more attention in the marketplace. More gains in crude oil would likely prompt some keener concerns about problematic inflation, as well as economic growth concerns. Oil’s surge this week is mainly due to the U.S. not renewing waivers it had given to some countries on sanctioned Iranian crude oil imports.

The other key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up and not far below the high for the year set last Thursday.

U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market on Monday powered to a nearly six-month high above $65.00 a barrel. Recent price action in crude pushed above key technical resistance levels that now make a challenge of major psychological resistance at $70.00 likely in the near term. Veteran oil market bulls would like to see the gentle, unassuming price uptrend remain, as it would suggest more of the same. Higher daily volatility and bigger price moves would be a chart clue that prices are topping out. But right now the crude oil market bulls are in firm near-term technical command. Stay tuned!

Monday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

There is a bit of risk aversion in the marketplace to start the trading week, as the U.S. is ratcheting up its economic sanctions on Iran. The U.S. now intends to eliminate waivers it had given to countries that imported Iranian crude oil.

Some world stock and financial markets are closed Monday due to the Easter holiday.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a new high for the year on Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher, hit a nearly six-month high and are trading around $65.50 a barrel. Oil surged on the weekend reports the U.S. is going to end sanction waivers for countries importing Iranian crude oil.

U.S. economic reports due for release Monday are light and include the Chicago Fed business survey and existing home sales.

–Jim

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX has moved right up to challenge stiff chart resistance at the recent highs. A move in prices to new for-the-move highs would give the USDX bulls more power and would also suggest another leg up in prices in the coming weeks and possibly months. The strong dollar is a negative for the raw commodity sector. Most major raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on the world markets. When the dollar appreciates on the foreign exchange market, it makes those commodities more expensive to purchase with other currencies. Stay tuned!

Thursday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace, especially the FOREX sector, is keeping a very close eye on the Turkish lira, which has weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar recently. There are concerns about Turkey’s low foreign currency reserves that would have to be used to defend the lira in case speculative FOREX traders mounted a selling attack on it.

The U.S.-China trade negotiations are continuing and apparently the world’s two largest economies are moving closer to a final agreement. There is talk in the marketplace that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet next month to seal the deal.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index higher, as the Euro currency is pressured by some weak manufacturing data coming out of the Euro zone today. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $63.75 a barrel.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, the flash U.S. services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, manufacturing and trade inventories, and leading economic indicators.

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Wednesday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings and near Tuesday’s six-month highs when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are closing in on their record highs scored last fall.

Investors and traders continue to exhibit “risk-on” mentalities, as evidenced by the world stock markets trending higher and safe-haven gold and silver prices trending lower.

China’s gross domestic product report came out Wednesday and showed slightly better-than-expected growth of 6.4% in the first quarter, year-on-year. Stronger industrial production and retail sales were cited as boosting GDP. Most were expecting upbeat numbers just north of 6% annual GDP growth for the world’s second-largest economy.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for March showed a rise of 1.0% from February but was up only 1.4% year-on-year. Meantime, the U.K. CPI came in at up 0.2% in March and up 1.9% year-on-year. This continues a theme of very tame inflation in the world’s major economies.

An important change in market psychology has occurred just the past few weeks. Government bond yields in the world’s major economies are on the rise, after seeing their yields decline the first two months of the year. This is due in part to little risk aversion in the marketplace that is seeing monies flow into stock markets, which in turn prompts bond yields to rise in order to attract investor buying interest.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $64.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the international trade report, monthly wholesale trade, the Federal Reserve’s beige book and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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