The Nymex crude oil market continues to trek higher in uneventful fashion. Prices this week hit a five-month high. Technical odds favor the gentle price uptrend seen on the daily bar chart continuing for at least the near term. There are no early technical warning signals that prices are close to topping out. That means the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
Markets Await Key U.S. Data Points Wednesday
Wednesday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in uneventful trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors in stocks and stock indexes are not quite as upbeat at mid-week. President Trump on Monday threatened the European Union with $11 billion in tariffs on EU imports of several products into the U.S. Meantime, the U.S. is still fighting a trade war with China, and an escalation in trade tensions with the EU would mean the world’s three largest economies are sanctioning each other.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday forecast slowing global growth, at 3.3% in 2019 versus its last forecast of 3.5% growth, mainly due to the U.S. battling other economies over trade issues.
On the Brexit front, European Union officials will meet today to discuss extending a window for the U.K. to leave the bloc. If no extension is granted by the EU, then this Friday the U.K. would see a “hard exit,” which could roil European stock and financial markets.
The key U.S. data points today are the consumer price index for March, which is expected to be up 0.3% from February and up 1.8%, year-on-year. That morning report will be followed by the afternoon release of the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting Wednesday.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker as prices this week are seeing a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher, near Tuesday’s five-month high and trading around $64.50 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
Traders/Investors Unsettled by New U.S. Tariff Threats Against EU
Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors in stocks and stock indexes are a bit more nervous today after President Trump on Monday threatened the European Union with $11 billion in tariffs on EU imports of several products into the U.S. The Trump administration is taking aim at EU subsidies provided to Airbus.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker and hitting a nearly two-week low, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit another five-month high of $64.79 overnight.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the International Monetary Fund’s world outlook report, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. The economic data pace picks up rapidly on Wednesday and for the rest of the week, including Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes.
–Jim
Grain Markets Still Struggling; Weather Scares May Aid Bulls
The grain market bears are still in firm near-term technical control. See on the daily bar chart for May corn futures that prices are in a downtrend and recent price action has formed a bear flag pattern. It’s highly probable that it’s going to take a “weather market” in the grains in the coming few months to jumpstart any serious price uptrends. However, more years than not during the U.S. corn and soybean planting and growing seasons, at least one weather market does occur, to varying degrees. Stay tuned!
Global Stock Markets Pausing to Start Trading Week
Monday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to slightly weaker in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
There are no major geopolitical matters on the front burner of the marketplace early this week. U.S. corporate earnings reports are coming out this week. The Brexit saga continues to play out but is not impacting worldwide markets. Trader and investor attitudes are still generally upbeat, which is bullish for the world stock markets.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up, hit a five-month high overnight and are trading around $63.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the employment trends index. The data pace picks up as the week progresses, including the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday afternoon.
–Jim
World Stock Markets Pause Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report Friday Morning
Friday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. China’s markets were closed today. Traders and investors are still in a “risk-on” mentality following news that President Trump made positive remarks Thursday afternoon regarding a U.S.-China trade agreement being reached within the next four weeks. However Trump did not come right out and say a deal was done or set a date for a summit meeting with China President Xi Jinping. Many were thinking Trump would do that after his Thursday meeting with high-level China trade officials.
Market watchers are looking ahead to the U.S. Labor Department’s employment report for March, which is due out this morning. It’s arguably the most important economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number in the report is forecast to be up 175,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.8%. Wednesday’s precursor report, the ADP national employment report for March, showed a gain of 129,000 jobs, which was a significant downside miss. The payrolls number was forecast to be up 173,000. This suggests today’s more important jobs report could also be a miss to the downside.
In overnight news, markets did not react to reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has asked the European Union to delay is exit from the bloc until June 30.
President Trump on Thursday picked Herman Cain to become a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors. He needs to be confirmed by Congress. Cain is a proponent of U.S. monetary policy being tied to a “gold standard” and was with the Kansas City Federal Reserve in the 1990s.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $62.00 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic reports due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.
–Jim