Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian stock indexes were mostly weaker overnight, while the European equities markets traded near steady. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are trending solidly higher and are at or near record and/or multi-month highs. With no major geopolitical hotspots in play at present, focus of traders and investors is on corporate earnings reports, most of which have been upbeat.

In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business sentiment index fell in April to 99.2 versus 99.7 in March.

It’s quieter this week on the U.S.-China trade war front. Both sides are set to meet again next week. The U.S. is also discussing trade with Japan and other nations. The European Central Bank today declared the U.S. could be the main victim on trade because of its more aggressive stance toward its major trading partners.

Nymex crude prices on Tuesday pushed to a six-month high of $66.60 a barrel, with Brent crude trading above $74.00. Prices are modestly lower today on some profit taking. The other key outside market today finds the U.S. dollar index near steady and not far below this week’s multi-month high.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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Tuesday, April 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. With no major geopolitical hotspots in play at present, focus of traders and investors is on corporate earnings reports.

Rising oil prices that saw Nymex crude push above $66.00 a barrel and to a six-month high overnight, with Brent crude above $70.00, are getting more attention in the marketplace. More gains in crude oil would likely prompt some keener concerns about problematic inflation, as well as economic growth concerns. Oil’s surge this week is mainly due to the U.S. not renewing waivers it had given to some countries on sanctioned Iranian crude oil imports.

The other key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up and not far below the high for the year set last Thursday.

U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market on Monday powered to a nearly six-month high above $65.00 a barrel. Recent price action in crude pushed above key technical resistance levels that now make a challenge of major psychological resistance at $70.00 likely in the near term. Veteran oil market bulls would like to see the gentle, unassuming price uptrend remain, as it would suggest more of the same. Higher daily volatility and bigger price moves would be a chart clue that prices are topping out. But right now the crude oil market bulls are in firm near-term technical command. Stay tuned!

Monday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

There is a bit of risk aversion in the marketplace to start the trading week, as the U.S. is ratcheting up its economic sanctions on Iran. The U.S. now intends to eliminate waivers it had given to countries that imported Iranian crude oil.

Some world stock and financial markets are closed Monday due to the Easter holiday.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a new high for the year on Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher, hit a nearly six-month high and are trading around $65.50 a barrel. Oil surged on the weekend reports the U.S. is going to end sanction waivers for countries importing Iranian crude oil.

U.S. economic reports due for release Monday are light and include the Chicago Fed business survey and existing home sales.

–Jim

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX has moved right up to challenge stiff chart resistance at the recent highs. A move in prices to new for-the-move highs would give the USDX bulls more power and would also suggest another leg up in prices in the coming weeks and possibly months. The strong dollar is a negative for the raw commodity sector. Most major raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on the world markets. When the dollar appreciates on the foreign exchange market, it makes those commodities more expensive to purchase with other currencies. Stay tuned!

Thursday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace, especially the FOREX sector, is keeping a very close eye on the Turkish lira, which has weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar recently. There are concerns about Turkey’s low foreign currency reserves that would have to be used to defend the lira in case speculative FOREX traders mounted a selling attack on it.

The U.S.-China trade negotiations are continuing and apparently the world’s two largest economies are moving closer to a final agreement. There is talk in the marketplace that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet next month to seal the deal.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index higher, as the Euro currency is pressured by some weak manufacturing data coming out of the Euro zone today. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $63.75 a barrel.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, the flash U.S. services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, manufacturing and trade inventories, and leading economic indicators.

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