The grain market bears are still in firm near-term technical control. See on the daily bar chart for May corn futures that prices are in a downtrend and recent price action has formed a bear flag pattern. It’s highly probable that it’s going to take a “weather market” in the grains in the coming few months to jumpstart any serious price uptrends. However, more years than not during the U.S. corn and soybean planting and growing seasons, at least one weather market does occur, to varying degrees. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
Global Stock Markets Pausing to Start Trading Week
Monday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to slightly weaker in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
There are no major geopolitical matters on the front burner of the marketplace early this week. U.S. corporate earnings reports are coming out this week. The Brexit saga continues to play out but is not impacting worldwide markets. Trader and investor attitudes are still generally upbeat, which is bullish for the world stock markets.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up, hit a five-month high overnight and are trading around $63.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the employment trends index. The data pace picks up as the week progresses, including the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday afternoon.
–Jim
World Stock Markets Pause Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report Friday Morning
Friday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. China’s markets were closed today. Traders and investors are still in a “risk-on” mentality following news that President Trump made positive remarks Thursday afternoon regarding a U.S.-China trade agreement being reached within the next four weeks. However Trump did not come right out and say a deal was done or set a date for a summit meeting with China President Xi Jinping. Many were thinking Trump would do that after his Thursday meeting with high-level China trade officials.
Market watchers are looking ahead to the U.S. Labor Department’s employment report for March, which is due out this morning. It’s arguably the most important economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number in the report is forecast to be up 175,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.8%. Wednesday’s precursor report, the ADP national employment report for March, showed a gain of 129,000 jobs, which was a significant downside miss. The payrolls number was forecast to be up 173,000. This suggests today’s more important jobs report could also be a miss to the downside.
In overnight news, markets did not react to reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has asked the European Union to delay is exit from the bloc until June 30.
President Trump on Thursday picked Herman Cain to become a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors. He needs to be confirmed by Congress. Cain is a proponent of U.S. monetary policy being tied to a “gold standard” and was with the Kansas City Federal Reserve in the 1990s.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $62.00 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic reports due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.
–Jim
U.S. Stock Index Bulls Power Ahead
The U.S. stock indexes this week scored 5.5-month highs and remain in solid price uptrends on the daily bar charts. The recent low volatilty amid the price uptrends suggests more of the same in the near term: sideways-to-higher trading action. There are no early, significant technical clues to suggest the stock indexes are close to topping out. Stay tuned!
Global Equity Markets Pause Ahead of Trump’s Meeting With China Officials
Thursday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The stock markets are seeing corrective pullbacks from recent gains that pushed the U.S. stock indexes to 5.5-month highs this week.
Traders and investors worldwide are still generally upbeat, due in part to optimism the U.S. and China will soon reach a trade deal. Reports said President Trump will today meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington. He is part of the Chinese trade delegation in town. Reports say the U.S. and China are very close to a trade deal. The marketplace is wondering if Trump will today mention a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to seal the trade deal.
In other overnight news, India’s central bank lowered its main interest rate for the second time this year, to 6.0% from 6.25%.
Germany’s manufacturing orders dropped sharply in February, at down 4.2% from January. Forecasts were calling for a 0.5% rise in the period.
A European report just out said Italian economic growth for 2019 has been reduced from 1.0% to 0.1%. This could impact the European markets more significantly, given Italy’s already fragile financial system.
Market watchers are looking ahead to the U.S. Labor Department’s employment report for March, which is due out Friday morning. It’s arguably the most important economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number in the report is forecast to be up 175,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.8%. Wednesday’s precursor report, the ADP national employment report for March, showed a gain of 129,000 jobs, which was a significant downside miss. The payrolls number was forecast to be up 173,000. This suggests Friday’s more important jobs report could also be a miss to the downside.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $62.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday include the weekly jobless claims report and the Challenger job-cuts report. There are also several Federal Reserve officials scheduled to give speeches today.
–Jim
World Stock Markets Still in Rally Mode at Mid-Week; U.S. ADP Jobs Report on Deck
Wednesday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at 5.5-month highs when the New York day session begins.
So far this week, traders and investors have elevated risk appetites to boost world stock markets, due in part to optimism the U.S. and China will soon reach a trade deal. Talks on the matter take place in Washington, D.C. beginning today.
The key U.S. data point of the day is the ADP national employment report for March. The payrolls number is forecast to be up 173,000. This number is a precursor to the more important jobs report from the Labor Department that is due out Friday morning. The non-farm payrolls number in that report is forecast to be up 175,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.8%.
In overnight news, the Euro zone’s Markit composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a reading of 51.6 in March from 51.9 in February.
On the Brexit front, U.K.’s Parliament and Prime Minister Theresa May cannot come to agreement on a “soft” exit, with May wanting to extend the deadline for a “hard” exit.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher, hit another 4.5-month high and are trading around $62.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, the global services PMI, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim