The U.S. stock indexes hit six-month highs this week and continue to trend higher from last fall’s lows. Bulls have good technical power amid a gentle, low-volatility price uptrend in place on the daily bar charts. This low-volatility trading environment suggests more of the same in the coming weeks: sideways-to-higher price action. There are no early technical clues to suggest the stock indexes are close to topping out. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
Trader/Investor Appetite Still Upbeat Late-Week
Friday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The U.S. corporate earnings season gets underway today, with big-bank results released, including JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Several bank industry analysts are expecting somewhat downbeat earnings reports for the first quarter of this year.
In overnight news, China reported its import and export activity for March. Exports were up 14.2%, year-on-year, while imports were down 7.6% in the same period. These latest figures are deemed upbeat for China’s economy, given that in February its exports declined 20.7% from a year ago. Forecasters had expected a rise in China’s exports of around 9% in March.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $64.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release include import and export prices, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Also, the IMF and World Bank spring meetings get under way.
–Jim
World Stock Markets Mixed Thursday; Weaker Economic Growth Theme This Week
Thursday, April 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The marketplace is this week digesting economic data on several fronts that suggest world economic growth is slowing down and that the major central banks of the world will refrain from raising interest rates and could even ease their monetary policies. This theme is a mixed bag for stock markets but should be bullish for world government bond prices. U.S. first-quarter corporate earnings reports are starting to come out, with many expecting a generally downbeat theme to emerge.
In overnight news, China’s consumer inflation was reported rising in March, at up 2.3%, year-on-year, versus a reading of up 1.5% in February. China’s producer price index was up 0.4% in March versus up 0.1% in February, year-on-year.
On the Brexit front, European Union officials met Wednesday to discuss extending a window for the U.K. to leave the bloc. The EU officials granted the U.K. an extension until Oct. 31. Now, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has six months to forge a deal with Parliament on a “soft Brexit.”
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $64.00 a barrel. The International Energy Agency today said global oil output declined in March by 530,000 barrels per day.
U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly jobless claims report and the producer price index.
–Jim
Nymex Crude Oil Prices Continue to Trend Up
The Nymex crude oil market continues to trek higher in uneventful fashion. Prices this week hit a five-month high. Technical odds favor the gentle price uptrend seen on the daily bar chart continuing for at least the near term. There are no early technical warning signals that prices are close to topping out. That means the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher. Stay tuned!
Markets Await Key U.S. Data Points Wednesday
Wednesday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in uneventful trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors in stocks and stock indexes are not quite as upbeat at mid-week. President Trump on Monday threatened the European Union with $11 billion in tariffs on EU imports of several products into the U.S. Meantime, the U.S. is still fighting a trade war with China, and an escalation in trade tensions with the EU would mean the world’s three largest economies are sanctioning each other.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday forecast slowing global growth, at 3.3% in 2019 versus its last forecast of 3.5% growth, mainly due to the U.S. battling other economies over trade issues.
On the Brexit front, European Union officials will meet today to discuss extending a window for the U.K. to leave the bloc. If no extension is granted by the EU, then this Friday the U.K. would see a “hard exit,” which could roil European stock and financial markets.
The key U.S. data points today are the consumer price index for March, which is expected to be up 0.3% from February and up 1.8%, year-on-year. That morning report will be followed by the afternoon release of the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The European Central Bank also holds its regular monetary policy meeting Wednesday.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker as prices this week are seeing a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher, near Tuesday’s five-month high and trading around $64.50 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
Traders/Investors Unsettled by New U.S. Tariff Threats Against EU
Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors in stocks and stock indexes are a bit more nervous today after President Trump on Monday threatened the European Union with $11 billion in tariffs on EU imports of several products into the U.S. The Trump administration is taking aim at EU subsidies provided to Airbus.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker and hitting a nearly two-week low, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit another five-month high of $64.79 overnight.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the International Monetary Fund’s world outlook report, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. The economic data pace picks up rapidly on Wednesday and for the rest of the week, including Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes.
–Jim