Daily Morning Report

Friday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

U.S. and world stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight.

Low- to mid-level trade talks between the U.S. and China have ended with reportedly no significant results. Each country on Thursday levied new tariffs on each other’s products. This matter continues to be a drag on some U.S. agricultural markets.

A highlight of the trading week will be the annual meeting of world central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that begins in earnest today. Past years’ meetings have produced important proclamations from world central bankers. Fed Chairman Powell is slated to speak this morning at the symposium.

Gold prices are posting modest gains today as the bulls have stabilized the market after recent selling pressure drove prices to a more-than-one-year low. Reports overnight said Asian demand for gold bullion is picking up, on perceived bargain hunting.

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Thursday, August 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

U.S. and world stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. By some accounts the S&P 500 stock index has now reached its longest bull run ever.

Despite low-level trade talks presently taking place, the U.S. and China each levied new tariffs on each other’s products Thursday—this time to the tune of $16 billion apiece.

The Australian dollar has dropped today on news the Prime Minister is stepping down and cabinet members have resigned.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone’s Markit purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.4 in August from 54.3 in July. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

Traders have pretty much digested Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes, which said the Fed will very likely in September raise U.S. interest rates for the third time this year. The U.S. dollar was boosted by the FOMC minutes.

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The soft red winter wheat futures market fell to a three-week low Wednesday, on good follow-through selling pressure from losses suffered earlier this week. The wheat market bulls have faded badly this week and more downside price action to end the week would strongly suggest the market has put in a near-term top. See the support and resistance lines on the chart. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, August 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

U.S. and world stock markets were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. President Donald Trump is in some hot water, legally, as two of his close associates are likely going to jail. This has added a bit of uncertainty to the world marketplace at mid-week. There is talk Trump could pardon those associates, or that he could be impeached. And the mid-term congressional elections are right around the corner.

Gold prices are firmer and seeing a bit of safe-haven demand on the Trump worries.

Also in focus today is the early-afternoon release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Past FOMC minutes releases have moved markets, although no big revelations are expected in today’s report.

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Tuesday, August 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in the marketplace today is a weaker U.S. dollar in the wake of remarks from President Trump to Reuters criticizing the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Trump reportedly said Fed Chairman Jay Powell is not doing the job the president had hoped he’d do. The Fed has raised U.S. interest rates twice this year and is likely to raise them at least one more time this year.

U.S. and world stock markets were mostly firmer overnight and brushed off Trump’s comments on the Fed.

A Chinese central bank official has reportedly said China will not use its currency, the yuan, to gain leverage in its trade war with the U.S. The yuan has dropped around 10% against the U.S. dollar since April. The U.S. is set to slap more tariffs on China’s imported products this week, despite the world’s two largest economies holding low-level trade talks later this month.

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The crude oil futures market is in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and prices late last week hit a seven-week low. With the downtrend in place the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideway to lower until that downtrend is negated. See the support and resistance lines on the chart. Stay tuned!