Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

There is less risk aversion in the world marketplace today, partly on news the U.S. and China are set to hold trade talks later this month—the first negotiations in two months. However, the threat of an emerging markets economic and currency crisis is still on the minds of many traders and investors, and this matter will not just disappear. The Turkish lira, which has garnered the most scrutiny in recent weeks, is trading higher versus the U.S. dollar today.

The precious metals markets were hit especially hard Wednesday, on worries about a global economic slowdown that could be caused by a secondary currency crisis. Gold hit a 1.5-year low, silver a two-year low, platinum a 14-year low and palladium scored a 13-month low. Supposedly safe-haven gold and silver markets have not seen any significant demand surface due to the potential for a currency market contagion.

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Wednesday, August 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

U.S.-Turkey relations have further deteriorated as Turkey has slapped economic sanctions on the U.S. The Turkish lira has stabilized at mid-week, but traders and investors worldwide are still jittery that a secondary currency contagion could still develop as the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate against most world currencies.

The economic highlight of the day for the U.S. is retail sales data for July, which is expected to come in at up just 0.1%.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market on Monday hit a six-week low and a downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The bulls have lost momentum and the charts have become less bullish, suggesting a near-term market top has occurred and that prices will trade sideways at best in the near term, if not sideways to lower. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, August 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, on corrective rebounds from Monday’s selling pressure. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The currency markets have stabilized a bit today, following Monday’s and recent price action that have seen the world’s secondary currencies seriously depreciate against the U.S. dollar—especially the Turkish lira. Still, this matter is of serious concern to traders and investors as they worry about a contagion-type scenario that has gripped currency markets in recent history.

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Monday, August 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

It’s a risk-off day in the world marketplace to start the trading week Monday, as global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The stock and currency markets are roiled again today, with focus on a crumbling Turkish lira and that country’s financial troubles. The Lira was down as much as 10% today following sharp losses last week. Turkey’s government has so far done or said little to stem the drop in the lira.

The Indian rupee, South African rand and Mexican peso are included in those secondary currencies also getting hit hard today by an appreciating U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index rose to another 13-month high today, on safe-haven demand.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX soared to a 13-month high Friday, on safe-haven demand amid roiled currency markets—led by the tumbling Turkish lira. There are worries the depreciating lira could create a contagion in other world secondary currency markets. Stay tuned!