Daily Morning Report

Friday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, with European shares leading the way with solid losses. The currency markets are in keen focus late this week as the Russian ruble has sunk against the U.S. dollar and the Euro currency fell to a one-year low against the greenback. The Euro currency has taken a beating on the world foreign exchange market today, as the Euro zone has a heavier exposure to the Turkish lira, which has been pummeled recently on the foreign exchange market—losing around 15% of its value just this week. All of the above have pushed the U.S. dollar index to a 13-month high today, on safe-haven demand. The world marketplace is especially concerned about the Turkish lira’s situation expanding into a contagion of secondary world currencies. The Financial Times has reported the European Central Bank is examining several European banks’ exposure to the lira. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The gold and silver market bulls are frustrated the that currency market turmoil has not at all benefitted the safe-haven metals—at least not yet.

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Thursday, August 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The Russian ruble hit a two-year low against the U.S. dollar overnight as the U.S. hit Russia with new economic sanctions. The Turkish lira fell to another record low against the greenback. The British pound is under pressure on Brexit uncertainties.

The most significant U.S. economic report so far this week is out this morning—the producer price index for July, which is expected to show a 0.2% rise from June. The consumer price index is due out Friday morning.

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See on the daily bar chart for December soft red winter wheat futures that prices are in a steep uptrend and have this week hit a 12-month high. A shorter global wheat crop this year, due to drought conditions in some major producing countries, is boosting wheat prices. The chart is solidly bullish, suggesting more upside price action in the near term. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on fresh jitters as the U.S. prepares to slap more trade sanctions on China—now totaling $50 billion. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s imports rose 23.7% in July, year-on-year. Imports were up 14.1% in June. China’s exports rose 12.2% in July, following an 11.3% increase in June. The July surge in imports was attributed to China stocking up on some goods to prepare for a protracted trade war with the U.S.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading just above $69.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker today but still not far below its recent 12-month high.

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Tuesday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. today brought back harsh economic sanctions on Iran that were lifted by the Obama administration as part of an Iran non-nuclear deal that President Trump cancelled. Trump tweeted today that anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the U.S. Likely rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be the next geopolitical flashpoint in the world marketplace, which could boost safe-haven gold and silver prices. Reports say Iran could produce a nuclear bomb within a year.

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The Nymex crude oil futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below the multi-year high scored in July. In fact, a bullish wedge, or symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for September oil futures. Technical odds suggest a bullish upside breakout from the triangle will occur in the near term. Stay tuned!