Daily Morning Report

Monday, August 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, led by losses in Asia, on fears of a protracted trade war between the world’s two largest economies: the U.S. and China. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. on Tuesday is bringing back economic sanctions on Iran that were lifted by the Obama administration as part of an Iran non-nuclear deal that President Trump cancelled. Likely rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be the next geopolitical flashpoint in the world marketplace. Reports said Iranians are purchasing and hoarding gold on fears of a collapse in the Iranian economy.

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Thursday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors worldwide remain generally upbeat and risk-averse.

Traders are awaiting this morning’s U.S. jobs report for July. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for July showed a rise of 219,000. That number was higher than the expected rise of 185,000. The non-farm payrolls number today is forecast to come in at up 190,000. The stronger ADP number suggests today’s figure could come in higher, too. Look for more active trading in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report. However, it’s also prime vacation season in the U.S. and Europe. Trading could well continue to be generally lackluster until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

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The September e-mini S&P futures have hit a two-week low late this week as the bulls have faded just a bit. See at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has just produced a bearish line crossover signal. While the recent downside price action is so far just a corrective pullback in an uptrend, more losses this week, including a bearish weekly low close on Friday, would produce more significant near-term chart damage, to then begin to suggest a near-term market top in place. Stay tuned!

Thursday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on renewed worries about the U.S. imposing higher tariffs on Chinese imports. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The White House announced Wednesday that it is considering increasing from 10%, to 25%, the tariffs on Chinese imports. The world’s two largest economies going at it on trade is a keen worry in the global marketplace.

Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for July. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for July showed a rise of 219,000. That number was higher than the expected rise of 185,000. The non-farm payrolls number on Friday is forecast to come in at up 190,000. The stronger ADP number suggests Friday’s figure could come in higher, too.

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Wednesday, August 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on renewed worries about the U.S. imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports. Reports said some of President Trump’s advisors are advising him to sharply ramp up tariffs on China. And once again, China said it would retaliate if the U.S. set new tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In focus today is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No changes in Fed policy are expected at this meeting, but as usual traders will parse the Fed statement on clues for futures monetary policy moves and timing.

The Bank of England meets Thursday for its regular monetary policy gathering. No changes in policy are expected from the BOE.

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After a dismal late-spring and early-summer, the grain market bulls have sprung back to life as the calendar turns to August. World supply and demand fundamentals in the grains were never that bearish, but the very negative psychology of a world trade war that had U.S. agricultural markets in the crosshairs did pull grain prices sharply lower. It does appear the grain markets have put in major lows and that price action the rest of this year will be sideways to higher. Stay tuned!