Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on fresh jitters as the U.S. prepares to slap more trade sanctions on China—now totaling $50 billion. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s imports rose 23.7% in July, year-on-year. Imports were up 14.1% in June. China’s exports rose 12.2% in July, following an 11.3% increase in June. The July surge in imports was attributed to China stocking up on some goods to prepare for a protracted trade war with the U.S.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading just above $69.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker today but still not far below its recent 12-month high.

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Tuesday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. today brought back harsh economic sanctions on Iran that were lifted by the Obama administration as part of an Iran non-nuclear deal that President Trump cancelled. Trump tweeted today that anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the U.S. Likely rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be the next geopolitical flashpoint in the world marketplace, which could boost safe-haven gold and silver prices. Reports say Iran could produce a nuclear bomb within a year.

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The Nymex crude oil futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below the multi-year high scored in July. In fact, a bullish wedge, or symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for September oil futures. Technical odds suggest a bullish upside breakout from the triangle will occur in the near term. Stay tuned!

Monday, August 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, led by losses in Asia, on fears of a protracted trade war between the world’s two largest economies: the U.S. and China. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. on Tuesday is bringing back economic sanctions on Iran that were lifted by the Obama administration as part of an Iran non-nuclear deal that President Trump cancelled. Likely rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be the next geopolitical flashpoint in the world marketplace. Reports said Iranians are purchasing and hoarding gold on fears of a collapse in the Iranian economy.

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Thursday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors worldwide remain generally upbeat and risk-averse.

Traders are awaiting this morning’s U.S. jobs report for July. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for July showed a rise of 219,000. That number was higher than the expected rise of 185,000. The non-farm payrolls number today is forecast to come in at up 190,000. The stronger ADP number suggests today’s figure could come in higher, too. Look for more active trading in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report. However, it’s also prime vacation season in the U.S. and Europe. Trading could well continue to be generally lackluster until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

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The September e-mini S&P futures have hit a two-week low late this week as the bulls have faded just a bit. See at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has just produced a bearish line crossover signal. While the recent downside price action is so far just a corrective pullback in an uptrend, more losses this week, including a bearish weekly low close on Friday, would produce more significant near-term chart damage, to then begin to suggest a near-term market top in place. Stay tuned!