Daily Morning Report

Thursday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on renewed worries about the U.S. imposing higher tariffs on Chinese imports. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The White House announced Wednesday that it is considering increasing from 10%, to 25%, the tariffs on Chinese imports. The world’s two largest economies going at it on trade is a keen worry in the global marketplace.

Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for July. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for July showed a rise of 219,000. That number was higher than the expected rise of 185,000. The non-farm payrolls number on Friday is forecast to come in at up 190,000. The stronger ADP number suggests Friday’s figure could come in higher, too.

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Wednesday, August 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on renewed worries about the U.S. imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports. Reports said some of President Trump’s advisors are advising him to sharply ramp up tariffs on China. And once again, China said it would retaliate if the U.S. set new tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In focus today is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve that began Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No changes in Fed policy are expected at this meeting, but as usual traders will parse the Fed statement on clues for futures monetary policy moves and timing.

The Bank of England meets Thursday for its regular monetary policy gathering. No changes in policy are expected from the BOE.

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After a dismal late-spring and early-summer, the grain market bulls have sprung back to life as the calendar turns to August. World supply and demand fundamentals in the grains were never that bearish, but the very negative psychology of a world trade war that had U.S. agricultural markets in the crosshairs did pull grain prices sharply lower. It does appear the grain markets have put in major lows and that price action the rest of this year will be sideways to higher. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, July 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It will be a busy day for U.S. economic data.

In focus this week is central bank meetings of the U.S., the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. The BOJ today left its interest rates unchanged, as expected, but did surprise the marketplace by reiterating it will maintain its ultra-low interest rates and easy monetary policy. Only the BOE is expected to make any policy move—raising its interest rates slightly. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement.

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Monday, July 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been quieter summertime trading in the Northern Hemisphere markets recently.

In focus this week will be central bank meetings of the U.S., Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Only the BOE is expected to make any policy move—raising its interest rates slightly. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement.

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The U.S. Treasury bond futures market prices on Friday hit a five-week low and are trending lower. The bond market bears have the near-term technical advantage to suggest more sideways-to-lower price action in the near term. Fundamentally, recent stronger U.S. economic data also argues for rising interest rates and rising inflation. Stay tuned!