Daily Morning Report

Thursday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Global trade war fears continue to somewhat limit buying interest in world equity markets.

In overnight news, the Indian Rupee currency hit a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar, in part due to the spike in oil prices the past week. The strong dollar against the Rupee is likely limiting Indian demand for gold (priced in U.S. dollars on the world market). India is a major gold consumer, second only to China.

The big U.S. data point of the week is today’s final estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product, which is seen coming in at up 2.2%, year-on-year.

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Wednesday, June 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Lingering concerns about a global trade war among the major economies are weighing on the global equities markets.

The Chinese currency, the yuan, was guided to a six-month low today by the Chinese central bank. China’s main stock gauge, the Shanghai Composite Index, fell into bear market territory this week, as it has dropped 20% from its January high. Trade war fears have also gripped Asian investors.

The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading above $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. on Tuesday said it would have “zero tolerance” for Iran exporting its oil to other countries.

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The corn and soybean markets on Monday closed at fresh for-the-move low closes and the bears have reaffirmed their strong near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures are also slumping. The grains appear to be headed still lower in the near term, unless a weather market scare quickly pops up to boost prices. Fundamentally, very good growing conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt are trumping world a supply-and-demand picture that is overall friendly toward corn and soybeans. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors worldwide are still jittery amid the U.S.-China trade dispute that shows no signs of ebbing. Conflicting comments from Trump administration officials on Monday, regarding sanctions against Chinese firms, only added more uncertainty to the matter.

China loosening its monetary policy this week has some in the marketplace wondering if the Chinese government is devaluing its currency, the yuan, in order to counter the negative impact of U.S. trade tariffs on China’s overall trade.

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Monday, June 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. An escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China—the world’s two largest economies—continues to rattle world markets. President Trump said during the weekend the U.S. may bar Chinese companies from investing in U.S. technology firms.

In overnight news, China’s central bank lowered its reserve requirement ratio for its banks by 0.5%, which is ostensibly a mild move to ease monetary policy.

The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading above $68.50 a barrel. The just-completed OPEC meeting that began Friday in Vienna, Austria saw cartel members raise their collective oil production by 1 million barrels a day, which the marketplace deemed bullish for crude oil.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart for the USDX that prices are in a strong uptrend and just hit an 11-month high. The dollar bulls are in strong technical command to suggest still more upside price action in the near term, or longer. The stronger dollar is a bearish element for most of the raw commodity sector, given that most major raw commodities are priced in dollars on the world trade markets. An appreciating dollar makes those commodities more expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Stay tuned!