Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, June 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were firmer overnight and U.S. stock indexes are also pointed higher openings when the New York day session begins. While the U.S. and China have threatened each other with trade import tariffs, and the situation has escalated this week, many still believe the two largest economies of the world will find a compromise to avoid a full-blown trade war. That’s the thinking of the marketplace today, anyway.

The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hitting another 11-month high overnight. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading just above $65.00 a barrel. Oil traders are looking ahead to the late-week OPEC meeting, at which time Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to announce they will increase oil production.

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Tuesday, June 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were solidly lower overnight and U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is high today after the Trump administration has threatened China with still more trade tariffs, and China has again responded with its own latest threats. The world’s two largest economies appear headed for a full-blown trade war.

There is some safe-haven demand seen for gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, but not major money flows into those assets.

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See on the daily bar chart for August gold futures that prices were hammered lower last Friday and hit a six-month low. Prices saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a trading range and also re-established a downtrend on the daily chart. Bears are back in firm near-term technical control to suggest more sideways-to-lower price action in the near term. The next major downside target is the December low of $1,251.90. Stay tuned!

Monday, June 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. China and Hong Kong markets were closed today for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are in a risk-averse mood to start the trading week. World trade war concerns continue to be on the front burner of the marketplace, as the world’s two largest economies—the U.S. and China—square off.

The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index firmer and not far below last week’s 11-month high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower, hit a two-week low overnight and are trading around $64.50 a barrel.

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Friday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. World trade war concerns are on the front burner of the marketplace late this week.

The Trump administration is set to levy $100 billion of new tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as today. It is expected that China will again retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, with agriculture products in the crosshairs. Commodity market prices have been hit by worries of a full-blown trade war between the leading economies of the world.

Traders and investors are still buzzing about the plunge in the Euro currency and big rally in the U.S. dollar index on Thursday. The surprisingly dovish European Central Bank meeting results on Thursday had a major impact on the world foreign exchange markets.

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See on the daily bar chart that November soybean futures that prices have careened lower and on Thursday hit a nearly 10-month low. While the bears are in firm overall near-term technical control, the market is well overdone on the downside. See at the bottom of the chart that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to its lowest level in over a year. Any RSI number below 30.00 suggests a market is oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce. And don’t forget we are now into the growing season for U.S. soybeans, during which time weather market scares pop up quickly. Stay tuned!