Daily Morning Report

Thursday, June 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker today. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. interest rate hike on Wednesday has reminded world traders and investors that most of the major central banks of the world are likely to tighten their monetary policies in the coming months.

The European Central Bank is holding its monetary policy meeting this morning. No change is expected in ECB policy at this meeting, but the central bank is still on a path of easy money, for now. ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference after the meeting will be closely scrutinized for clues on the future moves from the central bank. Many think Draghi will sound a more hawkish tone on monetary policy at his press conference.

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Wednesday, June 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were narrowly mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It is widely expected the FOMC will raise U.S. interest rates by 0.25% at this meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a press conference following the meeting. Traders will parse Powell’s comments for clues on the pace of future U.S. rate hikes.

The European Central Bank holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. No change is expected in ECB policy, but the central bank is still on a path of easy money that is keeping its interest rates very low, and diverging with those of the U.S. More weak economic data coming out of the EU today—industrial production that fell more than expected—is another clue the ECB has to keep its monetary policy very accommodative. By the end of the year the spread between key U.S. and Euro zone interest rates is expected to be around 3.0%.

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U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures prices have given back about half of the gains seen in late May and the bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. If the bulls can have a good week this week, and see prices close at or near the weekly high on Friday, then technical odds would suggest prices can at least trade sideways, if not sideways to higher in the near term. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, June 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

The world marketplace is taking in stride the apparent positive conclusion of the summit meeting on denuclearization between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong Un. World stock markets were mixed to weaker after the meeting, with U.S. stock indexes set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.

Gold, U.S. Treasuries and the world currency markets were showing muted reactions to the summit’s conclusion—probably because traders and investors realize there are going to be lots of twists and turns on the road to complete denuclearization of North Korea, but still reckon this is a good start.

Attention will quickly turn to the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins today and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It is widely expected the FOMC will raise U.S. interest rates by 0.25% at this meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a press conference following the meeting.

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Monday, June 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight and U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

European markets were boosted in part on notions the political situation in Italy has calmed down from earlier tensions, which suggests the Italian government could be friendlier toward the European Union.

This weekend’s Group of Seven meeting in Canada between the major industrialized countries of the world ended in discord, with the U.S. refusing to sign a G-7 statement. Trade and import tariffs were the major topic of discussion among the finance ministers of the major world economies. The trade-related spat between the U.S. and Canada that is becoming more vitriolic underscores the fading hopes the U.S. and its major trading partners can avoid an escalation in trade sanctions against each other.

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The corn and soybean markets this week took major downside price hits, with serious near-term technical damage inflicted. This sets the stage for more price pressure for at least the next couple weeks, heading into the pivotal early-July timeframe when price trends in the grains can be reversed, or existing trends can accelerate. The corn and bean markets’ bullish savior could be hot and dry weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt. But right now, the weather forecasts are not deemed bullish. However, forecasts can change quickly in the summertime. Stay tuned!