Daily Morning Report

Thursday, May 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

There were no major, new developments overnight on the geopolitical front.

Today is the last trading day of the month, which makes it a more important trading day from a technical perspective.

Traders are awaiting Friday’s U.S. jobs report for May. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up around 190,000. Wednesday’s ADP jobs report showed a rise of 178,000.

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Wednesday, May 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, including the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the advance economic indicators report, the second estimate of first-quarter GDP, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

The key data point for today is likely to be the national employment report for May, which is forecast to come in at up 187,000. That report is the precursor to the Labor Department’s employment situation report on Friday morning.

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The wheels have quickly come off the Nymex crude oil bullish train. The recent steep downdraft in prices have negated a price uptrend and there are now strong clues that a market top is in place. The bearish fundamental of rising U.S. crude oil production, which is now at a record high of over 10 million barrels a day, and the added specter of Russia and Saudi Arabia now opening up their oil spigots more, have put a knife in the heart of the bullish crude oil camp. Now, major psychological resistance lies at $70.00 a barrel. The next downside target for the empowered crude oil bears is pushing prices below chart support at $65.00. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, May 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Geopolitical risk is squarely on the front burner of the marketplace early this week. The Italian president on Sunday blocked an anti-establishment government from forming. There is also an upcoming election in Spain, where the right-wing candidate is expected to do well. All of this is putting strong downside pressure on the Euro currency, which fell to a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar overnight.

The U.S.-North Korea nuclear summit may be back on, as the U.S. has sent a team of negotiators and planners to Singapore to set up the summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong Un. However, given recent North Korean actions, the summit could quickly be off again.

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World stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares weaker and European stock indexes firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Geopolitical risk is back on the front burner of the marketplace late this week. Italian government bond yields are rising and hit a four-year high this week amid an anti-establishment government that is forming in Italy, and which could destabilize the European Union. The U.S.-North Korea nuclear summit has been called off, and the U.S. is threatening to slap more trade tariffs on its trading partners.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices lower on more profit taking after hitting a 3.5-year high on Tuesday. A bearish weekly low close today would be a technical clue the market has put in a near-term top.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market remains in a solid price uptrend and this week hit a 3.5-year high near $73.00 a barrel. The bulls are in solid technical control and there are no early warning signals of a market top being close at hand. However, the bearish fundamental of rising U.S. crude oil production, which is now at a record high of over 10 million barrels a day, will almost certainly cap this rally at some point soon. But right now, the bulls have power to suggest more upside in the near term, including a test of major psychological resistance at $75.00 a barrel. Stay tuned!