Daily Morning Report

Friday, May 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in uneventful trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The relatively upbeat trader and investor attitudes in the market place continue to support buying interest in equities.

A feature in the marketplace this week is rising world government bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note is yielding above 3.0%. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields (falling prices) is a bit surprising, given some geopolitical storm clouds on the horizon.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading above $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another five-month high overnight.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

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Thursday, May 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

European markets are a bit concerned about Italy and notions that country may threaten to pull out of the Euro zone bloc if the EU does not write off some of its heavy financial debt owed to the bloc. This situation will only add to the recent selling pressure against the Euro currency, and in turn be a bullish element for the surging U.S. dollar.

The U.S. trade meetings with China in Washington, D.C., begin in earnest today. Also, an agreement on an updated NAFTA trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is unlikely to be announced late this week, as the Trump administration had hoped would be the case.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher and hitting a 3.5-year high above $72.00 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures prices pushed above $80.00 a barrel today. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer and hovering near this week’s five-month high.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and the leading economic indicators report.

–Jim

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The gold market was hammered down hard Tuesday and hit a five-month low. Importantly, prices dropped and closed below what was major psychological support at $1,300.00, which now suggests still more selling pressure is coming in the near term. One element that could rescue the sliding gold market is a flare-up in geopolitics that would prompt fresh demand for the safe-haven metal. And it does appear the U.S.-North Korea tensions are on the rise again. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were narrowly mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for April came in at up 0.3% from March and up 1.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

Japan’s first-quarter GDP showed a growth rate of -0.2%, which was below forecasts for no change in growth.

Features in the marketplace this week are a surging U.S. dollar index that hit a five-month high overnight, which has in turn put some pressure on raw commodity markets that are priced in greenbacks on world markets. Gold prices dropped sharply on Tuesday and hit a five-month low.

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Tuesday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note sees its yield back above 3.0% today.

A downbeat economic growth report from the European Union helped to weigh on equities. First-quarter Euro zone GDP growth came in at up a paltry 0.4%–down from the 0.7% growth rate (quarter-on-quarter) seen in the fourth quarter of last year. Year-on-year 1Q GDP was up 2.5%.

There was a mixed bag of economic data coming out of China today. Industrial output was up more than expected, but retail sales were down more than expected.

Focus of the marketplace this week is on U.S. trade meetings with China that are scheduled to begin in the U.S. today, and a possible U.S. decision on the NAFTA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.

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The grain market bulls have faded recently, as the U.S. planting and growing season is under way. Recent good planting progress, after some early-season delays, and good soil moisture conditions in the Corn Belt, are bearish elements for the grains at present. However, odds are high that a “weather scare” in the U.S. Midwest at some point this summer will goose grain prices higher. Such an event occurs nearly every year, to varying degrees. Keep reading my daily markets updates for the early clues on developing weather markets in the grains. Stay tuned!