Daily Morning Report

Friday, May 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Today is the release of the April U.S. employment report from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 195,000. Look for the potential for higher volatility in many markets, in the immediate aftermath of the report—especially if the forecast number is a big miss.

A U.S. high-level trade delegation sent to China for trade meetings this week has the talks end. A statement from China said some agreements were made, but there remain “significant disagreements over certain issues.” The two sides agreed to continue to negotiate. The U.S. has not yet released a statement following the meetings, which were held to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

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Thursday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has quickly moved past Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement, which announced no change in U.S. monetary policy, and hinted that the Federal Reserve is not quite as concerned about inflationary pressures as in recent months.

In overnight news, the inflation rate in the Euro zone was up 1.2% in April versus up 1.3% in March, on an annual basis. The European Central Bank would like to see annual inflation at 2.0%.

The World Gold Council reported today that global demand for the yellow metal fell 7% in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period last year. India and China led the decline, on weakening demand for bars and coins.

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The June S&P e-mini futures see prices in a downtrend amid recent choppy trading. It’s still my bias that the U.S. stock indexes have put in major tops, even though price action recently has been very choppy and two-sided. Make sure to check out my daily reports for those early clues on bigger price moves and potential price trend changes in the markets. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, May 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

The key U.S. markets event Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No change in U.S. interest rates is expected at this meeting. Focus will be on inflation prospects and what the FOMC members have to say on that matter.

Another important U.S. data point today will be the release of the ADP national employment report for April, which is expected to show a rise of 190,000 jobs.

A U.S. high-level trade delegation travels to China Thursday to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

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Tuesday, May 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Two important meetings have the attention of the world marketplace this week: The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Also, a U.S. high-level trade delegation will travel to China later this week to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. President Trump late Monday decided to delay by one month implementing on the European Union proposed tariffs on aluminum and steel. Tariffs are in effect for Russia and China.

On Friday is the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month.

The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading higher and at a nearly four-month high.

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The grain futures markets have come back to life recently. World supply and demand fundamentals are tilted in favor of the corn and soybean market bulls, while the wheat market is being supported by a severely drought-damaged hard red winter crop in the U.S. plains states. Importantly, it appears that speculative money from the big traders (called “funds”) is starting to flow back into the grain markets on the long side. And on top of that we are just into the planting and growing season for U.S. corn and soybeans. All of the above add up to what will likely be very active grain markets for the next few months. Check out my daily reports for those early clues on bigger price moves and potential price trend changes in the grains, and other markets. Stay tuned!