Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight, with Europe mostly weaker and Asia mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

There is growing concern the U.S. will not renew a deal struck with Iran in 2015 to curtail its nuclear arms development. President Trump says he will announce his decision on the matter Tuesday afternoon. The Iran nuke agreement expires Saturday. If the U.S. pulls out of the agreement, sanctions against Iran will be reapplied, including ostensibly sharply curbing Iranian oil exports.

In overnight news, China’s exports increased 12.9% in April, year-on-year, while its imports were up 21.5%. Both numbers beat market expectations. China’s top economic advisor will travel to the U.S. next week to resume trade-dispute negotiations between the world’s two largest economies.

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Monday, May 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index trading firmer. Prices are hovering near last week’s four-month high. Meantime, crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-year high overnight. Brent crude is approaching $76.00 a barrel and Nymex crude oil futures are above $70.00 a barrel. There is growing concern the U.S. will not renew a deal struck with Iran in 2015 to curtail its nuclear arms development. The agreement expires Saturday. If the U.S. pulls out of the agreement, sanctions against Iran will be reapplied, including ostensibly sharply curbing Iranian oil exports.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

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The wheat futures markets are in accelerating price uptrends and have this week hit nine-month highs. Is there more room on the upside in this market? My bias is, not much, at least in the near term. World supply-and-demand fundamentals in the wheat market are not at all bullish. However, speculative money has started to flow back into the grain futures markets, which could prove me wrong and continue to push wheat, corn and soybean futures prices north. If you look back a few years in price history, the grain markets were trading at much higher levels than they are now. Stay tuned!

Friday, May 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Today is the release of the April U.S. employment report from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 195,000. Look for the potential for higher volatility in many markets, in the immediate aftermath of the report—especially if the forecast number is a big miss.

A U.S. high-level trade delegation sent to China for trade meetings this week has the talks end. A statement from China said some agreements were made, but there remain “significant disagreements over certain issues.” The two sides agreed to continue to negotiate. The U.S. has not yet released a statement following the meetings, which were held to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

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Thursday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has quickly moved past Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement, which announced no change in U.S. monetary policy, and hinted that the Federal Reserve is not quite as concerned about inflationary pressures as in recent months.

In overnight news, the inflation rate in the Euro zone was up 1.2% in April versus up 1.3% in March, on an annual basis. The European Central Bank would like to see annual inflation at 2.0%.

The World Gold Council reported today that global demand for the yellow metal fell 7% in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period last year. India and China led the decline, on weakening demand for bars and coins.

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The June S&P e-mini futures see prices in a downtrend amid recent choppy trading. It’s still my bias that the U.S. stock indexes have put in major tops, even though price action recently has been very choppy and two-sided. Make sure to check out my daily reports for those early clues on bigger price moves and potential price trend changes in the markets. Stay tuned!