Daily Morning Report

Thursday, May 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is not seeing a significant reaction from renewed Syria-Israeli military action, as both sides conducted air strikes against the other the past 24 hours. Still, it appears the Middle East has once again become a geopolitical flashpoint for the markets. That’s bullish for crude oil and safe-haven gold and silver.

Traders are awaiting the conclusion of the Bank of England’s regular monetary policy meeting today.

The U.S. economic highlight today will be the consumer price index for April, which is expected to come in up 0.3% from March, and be up 2.5% at an annual rate.

The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher, at a new 3.5-year high, and trading near $72.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high Wednesday.

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Wednesday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is buzzing about the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, but markets, themselves, are not showing much reaction—with the exception of oil prices that have basically recovered Tuesday’s losses.

The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher, at a new 3.5-year high, and trading near $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another 4.5-month high overnight.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market has just hit a 3.5-year high above $70.00 a barrel. See on the daily bar chart that prices are in a solid uptrend. There is no doubt the technical posture of the oil market is fully bullish. However, my bias is that crude oil prices will not stay above $70.00 or long. Reason: The very strong fundamental of rising U.S. shale oil production will act as a bit counterweight to much more upside price action in the crude oil market. Reports out just recently showed U.S. crude oil production is now above 10 million barrels a day. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight, with Europe mostly weaker and Asia mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

There is growing concern the U.S. will not renew a deal struck with Iran in 2015 to curtail its nuclear arms development. President Trump says he will announce his decision on the matter Tuesday afternoon. The Iran nuke agreement expires Saturday. If the U.S. pulls out of the agreement, sanctions against Iran will be reapplied, including ostensibly sharply curbing Iranian oil exports.

In overnight news, China’s exports increased 12.9% in April, year-on-year, while its imports were up 21.5%. Both numbers beat market expectations. China’s top economic advisor will travel to the U.S. next week to resume trade-dispute negotiations between the world’s two largest economies.

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Monday, May 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index trading firmer. Prices are hovering near last week’s four-month high. Meantime, crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-year high overnight. Brent crude is approaching $76.00 a barrel and Nymex crude oil futures are above $70.00 a barrel. There is growing concern the U.S. will not renew a deal struck with Iran in 2015 to curtail its nuclear arms development. The agreement expires Saturday. If the U.S. pulls out of the agreement, sanctions against Iran will be reapplied, including ostensibly sharply curbing Iranian oil exports.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

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The wheat futures markets are in accelerating price uptrends and have this week hit nine-month highs. Is there more room on the upside in this market? My bias is, not much, at least in the near term. World supply-and-demand fundamentals in the wheat market are not at all bullish. However, speculative money has started to flow back into the grain futures markets, which could prove me wrong and continue to push wheat, corn and soybean futures prices north. If you look back a few years in price history, the grain markets were trading at much higher levels than they are now. Stay tuned!