Daily Morning Report

Monday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. European indexes were mostly weaker and Asian stocks were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Focus of the marketplace this week will be on U.S. trade meetings with China that begin in the U.S. Tuesday, and a possible U.S. decision on the NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading above $70.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high last week.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies stacked up against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX is in an accelerating uptrend and this week hit a 4.5-month high. The greenback bulls are in firm technical control, to suggest more gains for at least the near term. It’s also important to note that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than trends in other markets. Stay tuned!

Thursday, May 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is not seeing a significant reaction from renewed Syria-Israeli military action, as both sides conducted air strikes against the other the past 24 hours. Still, it appears the Middle East has once again become a geopolitical flashpoint for the markets. That’s bullish for crude oil and safe-haven gold and silver.

Traders are awaiting the conclusion of the Bank of England’s regular monetary policy meeting today.

The U.S. economic highlight today will be the consumer price index for April, which is expected to come in up 0.3% from March, and be up 2.5% at an annual rate.

The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher, at a new 3.5-year high, and trading near $72.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high Wednesday.

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Wednesday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is buzzing about the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, but markets, themselves, are not showing much reaction—with the exception of oil prices that have basically recovered Tuesday’s losses.

The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher, at a new 3.5-year high, and trading near $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another 4.5-month high overnight.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market has just hit a 3.5-year high above $70.00 a barrel. See on the daily bar chart that prices are in a solid uptrend. There is no doubt the technical posture of the oil market is fully bullish. However, my bias is that crude oil prices will not stay above $70.00 or long. Reason: The very strong fundamental of rising U.S. shale oil production will act as a bit counterweight to much more upside price action in the crude oil market. Reports out just recently showed U.S. crude oil production is now above 10 million barrels a day. Stay tuned!