Daily Morning Report

Thursday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Markets were somewhat assuaged overnight on reports the U.S. government could implement so-called “carve-outs” for certain countries (namely Canada and Mexico) when it imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum, as early as this weekend. Now it appears the U.S. has its sights set on what many believe to be the main problem in world trade: China.

The main event of the trading day Thursday will be the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting. No change in interest rates is expected from the ECB, but ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference could offer clues on the future path and timing of ECB monetary policy.

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Wednesday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The stock, financial and currency markets are somewhat spooked after White House chief economist Gary Kohn announced his resignation amid the increasingly protectionist rhetoric coming from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The resignation of Kohn suggests Trump is pushing forward with his plan to slap tariffs on imported aluminum and steel. Kohn’s departure heightened the speculation that there is keen turmoil presently in the White House west wing.

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The longtime market watchers remember the days when the grain markets were king of the hill, regarding speculator trading interest. While the grains may never be the only game in town again, recent upside price action has again garnered the keener interest of the trading community. And we are heading into the important spring and summer planting and growing season for U.S. crops with a head of steam in the grain futures. Look for some higher volatility and speculator buying interest in the grain futures markets in the coming months, or longer. See on the daily bar chart for May soybean futures that prices are in a steep uptrend, but the market is now overbought and due for a corrective pullback, as evidenced by the high reading on the Relative Strength Index. Any RSI reading above 70.0 suggests a market is overdone on the upside. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, partly on some hopes that the U.S. plans for import tariffs on steel and aluminum will be rolled back, or at least scaled way down. Several U.S. lawmakers, including the Speaker of the House, have spoken out against President Trump’s protectionist initiative that surprised the marketplace.

Also boosting investor risk appetite today is news overnight that North Korea has reportedly made an overture to South Korea regarding its possible denuclearization. Details are sketchy at this time, but the news is a positive for the world marketplace.

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Monday, March 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are seeing some safe-haven demand amid the threat of a global trade war after U.S. President Trump announced he was slapping import tariffs on steel and aluminum. Also, the Italian elections on Sunday that produced no clear winner threw fresh uncertainty into the marketplace. Italy is the European Union’s third-largest economy.

Elections in Germany over the weekend showed Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely win a fourth term.

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The e-mini S&P futures market has seen very high volatility the past several weeks. See on the daily bar chart that such price action has formed a big wedge pattern. The direction in which prices break out from this wedge will very likely be the next dominant price trend for quite some time. My bias: We will see a bearish downside breakout from the wedge. Stay tuned!