Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, partly on some hopes that the U.S. plans for import tariffs on steel and aluminum will be rolled back, or at least scaled way down. Several U.S. lawmakers, including the Speaker of the House, have spoken out against President Trump’s protectionist initiative that surprised the marketplace.

Also boosting investor risk appetite today is news overnight that North Korea has reportedly made an overture to South Korea regarding its possible denuclearization. Details are sketchy at this time, but the news is a positive for the world marketplace.

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Monday, March 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are seeing some safe-haven demand amid the threat of a global trade war after U.S. President Trump announced he was slapping import tariffs on steel and aluminum. Also, the Italian elections on Sunday that produced no clear winner threw fresh uncertainty into the marketplace. Italy is the European Union’s third-largest economy.

Elections in Germany over the weekend showed Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely win a fourth term.

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The e-mini S&P futures market has seen very high volatility the past several weeks. See on the daily bar chart that such price action has formed a big wedge pattern. The direction in which prices break out from this wedge will very likely be the next dominant price trend for quite some time. My bias: We will see a bearish downside breakout from the wedge. Stay tuned!

Friday, March 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight and U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The big news late this week is Thursday’s midday announcement from the Trump administration that the U.S. will slap a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. This news has spooked the marketplace on ideas the Trump moves could spark a worldwide trade war. The European Union has already said it will retaliate. Leaders of countries around the world sounded warnings about the Trump move on tariffs and asked the U.S. president to change his mind.

There is now a new dose of uncertainty in the marketplace from the Trump tariff moves. Also, there are reports coming from inside the White House that Trump’s close advisors are squabbling to the point that some are likely to leave their jobs soon. This has prompted increased demand for safe-haven gold today.

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Thursday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. As we ended the tumultuous month of February, it appears that higher volatility is here to stay for a while—maybe not extreme volatility, but certainly up from the low levels seen during most of 2017.

While the market place has digested new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to U.S. lawmakers Tuesday, in which he sounded a more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy, some are now thinking Powell’s testimony to the U.S. Senate on Thursday morning could find him clarifying his sentiment put forth Tuesday. On Tuesday Powell intimated there could be four small U.S. rate hikes this year, beginning in March.

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The crude oil market has made a solid rebound from the February low, to suggest a retest of the January high above $66.00 a barrel. The near-term chart for crude is bullish. However, I cannot ignore significant market fundamentals (and neither should you). The specter of rising U.S. shale oil production is very likely to cap crude oil’s price gains, to suggest there is not much upside price potential at all, if prices do reach the January high. Stay tuned!