Daily Morning Report

Friday, March 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its consumer inflation rate in February was up 1.1%, year-on-year. That was slightly below expectations of a 1.2% rise. This is another report showing non-problematic inflation in the European Union. In fact, the European Central Bank would like to see an annual inflation rate of around 2.0%.

Continue Reading

Thursday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins.

Reports overnight said the Trump administration is set to soon unveil more trade restrictions on China, after the U.S. has concluded China has been unfairly coercing U.S. firms to transfer their technology to China for years. This could become a major element in the world marketplace if the two largest world economies engage in a tit-for-tat trade war.

The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Trading in the USDX has been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also slightly higher. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that increasing world oil demand will offset the rise in U.S. shale-oil production, to keep the world supply and demand situation in balance.

Continue Reading

June U.S. Treasury bond futures prices have been trending gently higher the past few weeks, but a longer-term downtrend line is also in place. One trend line will be broken very soon, with the remaining trend line then suggesting the path of least resistance for price direction in the near term. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The world marketplace is still watching developments in the Trump administration after President Trump unceremoniously fired his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, on Tuesday. The Trump administration turmoil is an unsettling element for the marketplace due to the uncertainty regarding what could happen next.

The key economic data point of the day Wednesday is the U.S. producer price index report for February. PPI is forecast to come in at up 0.1% from January. The U.S. consumer price index was reported on Tuesday and it was deemed tame.

Continue Reading

Tuesday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly slightly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The key economic data point of the day Tuesday will be the U.S. consumer price index report for February. The CPI is expected to come in at up 0.2% from January and up 2.3%, year-on-year. Inflation readings from the world’s major economies have been creeping up recently, which has caused a bit of concern among traders and investors. However, with most of the world inflation data being reported near or just above a 2.0% rise recently, most agree there is no cause for alarm. Most major central banks of the world actually want to see an annual inflation rate of right around 2.0%.

Continue Reading

The past several weeks have seen solid rallies in the grain markets that have not been seen for many months. Those rallies were driven mostly by dry weather concerns in Argentina that boosted soybeans, and dry weather worries in the U.S. Plains states that rallied the wheat market. However, weather-inspired rallies generally peter out before the actual weather damage is fully realized for the crops. Futures traders tend to factor in expected market events before the come to conclusions. This week will be critical for the grain markets. For the rallies in the grains to extend, the bulls need to step up this week. If they don’t, then it will likely be several weeks of sideways to lower price action ahead of the U.S. planting and growing season for soybeans, and U.S. harvest for wheat. Stay tuned!