Daily Morning Report

Friday, March 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight and U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The big news late this week is Thursday’s midday announcement from the Trump administration that the U.S. will slap a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. This news has spooked the marketplace on ideas the Trump moves could spark a worldwide trade war. The European Union has already said it will retaliate. Leaders of countries around the world sounded warnings about the Trump move on tariffs and asked the U.S. president to change his mind.

There is now a new dose of uncertainty in the marketplace from the Trump tariff moves. Also, there are reports coming from inside the White House that Trump’s close advisors are squabbling to the point that some are likely to leave their jobs soon. This has prompted increased demand for safe-haven gold today.

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Thursday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. As we ended the tumultuous month of February, it appears that higher volatility is here to stay for a while—maybe not extreme volatility, but certainly up from the low levels seen during most of 2017.

While the market place has digested new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to U.S. lawmakers Tuesday, in which he sounded a more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy, some are now thinking Powell’s testimony to the U.S. Senate on Thursday morning could find him clarifying his sentiment put forth Tuesday. On Tuesday Powell intimated there could be four small U.S. rate hikes this year, beginning in March.

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The crude oil market has made a solid rebound from the February low, to suggest a retest of the January high above $66.00 a barrel. The near-term chart for crude is bullish. However, I cannot ignore significant market fundamentals (and neither should you). The specter of rising U.S. shale oil production is very likely to cap crude oil’s price gains, to suggest there is not much upside price potential at all, if prices do reach the January high. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The market place has pretty much digested new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to U.S. lawmakers Tuesday, in which he sounded a more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. Powell intimated there could be four small U.S. rate hikes this year, beginning in March. His comments pressured the metals markets, U.S. Treasuries and the stock market, while supporting the U.S. dollar index.

In overnight news, the Euro zone February consumer price index was reported at up 1.2% from January’s up 1.3%, year-on-year. The February number was in line with market expectations and is the third month in a row of declining inflation in the Euro zone.

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Tuesday, February 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have now regained all of the sharp losses seen in February. Now, the specter of big and bearish double-top reversal patterns exists on the daily bar charts for the U.S. stock indexes, if prices challenge the January highs.

Traders are anxiously awaiting new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s first speech to the U.S. House of Representatives on Capitol Hill at 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday. He speaks to the U.S. Senate on Thursday. Traders and investors will parse his every word for clues on the direction and timing of U.S. monetary policy moves.

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The soybean futures market continues to be red hot, with prices scoring a new contract high on Monday. The bulls are in firm near-term technical command amid a serious weather market playing out in Argentina’s soybean-growing regions. However, the bean market is technically overbought on a short-term basis and due for a decent corrective pullback soon. Stay tuned!