Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. Worries about rising world inflation are keeping stock market traders and investors edgy. They also still worry about high daily volatility returning to the stock markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday warned the big increase in U.S. shale oil production will weigh down oil prices this year and glut the world oil market.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index.

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Monday, February 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were higher overnight, following sharp losses seen last week. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The big question on traders’ minds to start the week is if the recent period of very high daily price volatility has ended. Price action the first couple days of this week will go a long way in answering that question.

The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on a corrective bounce from recent solid losses and on the rebound in world stock markets.
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The Nymex crude oil futures market this week dropped to a four-week low and a price uptrend has stalled out. The market has seen chart damage inflicted to suggest a top is in place. More technical damage would be inflicted by a drop and close below key chart support at $60.00. If the oil market continues to break down, that would be a bearish element for most of the raw commodity sector. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight, following sharp losses in the U.S. stock indexes Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward firmer openings then the New York day session begins. Look for more high volatility on this last trading day of the week.

The U.S. government briefly shut down overnight but lawmakers quickly reached another continuing resolution deal to reopen it.

In other news, it was reported that China will launch its new crude oil futures contract on March 26. China, the world’s largest oil importer, is aiming to grab a share of the world oil pricing market.

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Thursday, February 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight, following losses in the U.S. stock indexes Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward mixed openings then the New York day session begins. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted on the U.S. stock indexes recently, to suggest they have finally topped out for at least the near term.

In overnight news, the Chinese yuan dropped by around 1% against the U.S. dollar for its biggest daily decline since the yuan was devalued in 2015.

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The U.S. stock indexes have suffered major technical damage recently, to suggest market tops are in place. Tuesday’s gains did not repair that damage. More downside price pressure is likely coming. Tuesday’s rebound in the U.S. stock market could be just a “dead-cat bounce” that many times occurs after a market has been mortally wounded. Indeed, the steep downdraft we have seen in stock indexes cannot just be swept under the rug by the equities bulls. Stay tuned!–Jim