Daily Morning Report

Thursday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are still digesting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded Wednesday afternoon with a statement that made no changes in U.S. monetary policy. None were expected. The statement said the U.S. economy is gaining strength, to also suggest rising inflation. The market read the report as neutral to maybe just slightly hawkish. Gold prices rallied moderately in the wake of the FOMC statement, but other markets saw little reaction. That was Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. This is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number consensus forecast comes in at up 177,000.

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Wednesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following the solid losses posted Tuesday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its consumer price index for January at up 1.3% versus up 1.4% in December, year-on-year. The January number was in line with market expectations.

Tuesday evening President Trump delivered his first state-of-the-union speech. Trump’s remarks did not have a major impact on the markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected. However, the FOMC statement could contain clues about the timing of futures interest rate increases from the Fed. This will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting.

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The world equity markets this week are a bit shaky as global bond market yields are on the rise. Rising bond yields signal rising interest rates and increasing inflationary pressures. See on the daily bar chart that March U.S. Treasury bond futures are in a solid downtrend, have this week set a new contract low, and there are no early chart clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The path of least resistance for U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices will remain sideways to lower (rising yields) until there is a significantly bullish near-term chart clue to suggest otherwise. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The equities markets worldwide are a bit worried about rising bond yields. The U.S. 10-year note rose to a more-than-three-year high yield on Monday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its fourth-quarter gross domestic product at up 0.6% from the third quarter and up 2.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

This is a busy events week for the marketplace. Tuesday evening President Trump delivers his state-of-the-union speech. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last meeting. And on Friday the monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department is due out.

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Monday, January 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

A feature in the marketplace recently is rising world bond market yields. That means rising interest rates and rising inflationary pressures. U.S. Treasury bonds and notes dropped to new contract lows in prices today.

The U.S. Dollar Index is higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on a corrective rebound after hitting a 3.5-year low last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower and trading above $65.00 a barrel, on a corrective pullback after last week’s more-than-three-year high. A rising U.S. oil rig count, reported Friday, is also bearish for oil.

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