Daily Morning Report

Monday, February 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become very wobbly. Bearish weekly low closes in the indexes on Friday were a technical clue that near-term market tops are in place. Worries about rising interest rates and inflation worldwide, as evidenced by rising world bond yields, have spooked the global equities markets.

The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading above $65.00 a barrel.

The new Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, will be sworn in today.

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Friday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobbly this week. Bearish weekly low closes in the indexes on Friday would be a technical clue that near-term market tops are in place.

In overnight news, the Euro zone December producer price index was reported up 0.2% from November and up 2.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. This is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number consensus forecast comes in at up 177,000. A miss from the forecasts on this number is likely to prompt markets volatility in the immediate aftermath of the 7:30 a.m. CST jobs report.

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The grains have endured a long bear market, but it finally appears to have run its course. Just the past few weeks the corn, soybean and wheat futures markets have shown price strength, including fledgling uptrends being in place on the daily charts. It’s my bias that 2018 will be a good year for the grain market bulls, including experiencing those summertime weather markets that can quickly goose prices. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are still digesting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded Wednesday afternoon with a statement that made no changes in U.S. monetary policy. None were expected. The statement said the U.S. economy is gaining strength, to also suggest rising inflation. The market read the report as neutral to maybe just slightly hawkish. Gold prices rallied moderately in the wake of the FOMC statement, but other markets saw little reaction. That was Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. This is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number consensus forecast comes in at up 177,000.

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Wednesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following the solid losses posted Tuesday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its consumer price index for January at up 1.3% versus up 1.4% in December, year-on-year. The January number was in line with market expectations.

Tuesday evening President Trump delivered his first state-of-the-union speech. Trump’s remarks did not have a major impact on the markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected. However, the FOMC statement could contain clues about the timing of futures interest rate increases from the Fed. This will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting.

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The world equity markets this week are a bit shaky as global bond market yields are on the rise. Rising bond yields signal rising interest rates and increasing inflationary pressures. See on the daily bar chart that March U.S. Treasury bond futures are in a solid downtrend, have this week set a new contract low, and there are no early chart clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The path of least resistance for U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices will remain sideways to lower (rising yields) until there is a significantly bullish near-term chart clue to suggest otherwise. Stay tuned!–Jim