Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are solidly higher early today and hit a 4.5-month high overnight, amid a slumping U.S. dollar.

The key outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and hitting a 3.5-year low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and not far below last week’s more-than-three-year high.

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Tuesday, January 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

The U.S. government reopened Tuesday after a three-day shutdown. U.S. lawmakers finally agreed on a temporary budget plan. That situation did not have a major impact on the world marketplace, but world equity markets were mostly higher Tuesday, partly on relief the U.S. government was open for business. U.S. stock indexes were set to open narrowly mixed when the New York day session begins.

Focus of the marketplace this week is on Davos, Switzerland and its World Economic Forum that began Tuesday. World government officials, corporate heads and other celebrities and bigshots will be at the yearly event to discuss economics and ways to make the world a better place. The highlight of the event will be a speech by U.S. President Trump.

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The U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets have hit contract lows to start the trading week. Rising bond yields (lower prices) are an indication of rising inflation and interest rates. See on the daily bar chart for March U.S. Treasury note futures that prices are in a solid downtrend. There are no early clues to suggest the price downtrends in T-Notes and T-Bonds will end any time soon. Thus, the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower for at least the near term. Stay tuned!–Jim

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. government remains shut down for the third day, as U.S. lawmakers cannot agree on a budget and President Trump seems content to let the government stay closed. The situation has not had a major impact on the world marketplace, but has somewhat limited buying interest in U.S. equities and have pressured the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Focus of the marketplace this week is on Davos, Switzerland and its World Economic Forum. World government officials, corporate heads and other celebrities will be at the yearly event to discuss economics and ways to make the world better. The highlight of the event will be a speech by U.S. President Trump.

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Friday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

There are growing worries in the marketplace the U.S. government will shut down starting this weekend, as U.S. lawmakers cannot agree on a budget and President Trump seems willing to close up the government to make a point. The concerns have not had a major impact on the world marketplace, but have somewhat limited buying interest in U.S. equities late this week, have pressured the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market, and have also given a slight lift to the safe-haven gold market.

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The S&P stock index futures this week hit another record high. There are no early, strong technical clues that a market top is close at hand. However, nobody can argue this is a very mature bull market run. There is bearish technical divergence showing up on the Directional Movement Index (DMI). See on the daily bar chart for the March S&P futures that the blue ADX line hit a new high recently, but then turned down while at the same time the S&P index went on to post a new high. This is called bearish divergence and is what I would call a minor technical signal of a potential market top being in place. Stay tuned!–Jim