Daily Morning Report

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. government remains shut down for the third day, as U.S. lawmakers cannot agree on a budget and President Trump seems content to let the government stay closed. The situation has not had a major impact on the world marketplace, but has somewhat limited buying interest in U.S. equities and have pressured the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Focus of the marketplace this week is on Davos, Switzerland and its World Economic Forum. World government officials, corporate heads and other celebrities will be at the yearly event to discuss economics and ways to make the world better. The highlight of the event will be a speech by U.S. President Trump.

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Friday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

There are growing worries in the marketplace the U.S. government will shut down starting this weekend, as U.S. lawmakers cannot agree on a budget and President Trump seems willing to close up the government to make a point. The concerns have not had a major impact on the world marketplace, but have somewhat limited buying interest in U.S. equities late this week, have pressured the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market, and have also given a slight lift to the safe-haven gold market.

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The S&P stock index futures this week hit another record high. There are no early, strong technical clues that a market top is close at hand. However, nobody can argue this is a very mature bull market run. There is bearish technical divergence showing up on the Directional Movement Index (DMI). See on the daily bar chart for the March S&P futures that the blue ADX line hit a new high recently, but then turned down while at the same time the S&P index went on to post a new high. This is called bearish divergence and is what I would call a minor technical signal of a potential market top being in place. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, January 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

There are growing concerns in the marketplace regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown starting this weekend, as U.S. lawmakers cannot agree on a budget. This worry has limited buying interest in equities.

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Wednesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The key outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a 3.5-year low earlier this week. The greenback bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest more pressure in the near term.

Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on some more profit taking after hitting a three-year high of $64.89 a barrel on Tuesday. The oil bulls are technically strong to suggest still more gains in the near term.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX has just dropped to a new 3.5-year low. The U.S. dollar bears are in strong near-term technical control, to suggest more downside price pressure is coming. The weakening dollar is a significantly bullish element for many major raw commodity markets, as those markets are priced in U.S. dollars on world markets. When the greenback weakens, its makes those commodities less expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency–meaning increased worldwide demand for them. Stay tuned!–Jim