Daily Morning Report

Thursday, December 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight in quieter, pre-holiday trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. tax-reform bill has become law. Lower U.S. tax rates coming in 2018 have bolstered already upbeat attitudes among traders and investors worldwide.

It’s a busy day Thursday for U.S. economic data. The big report of the week for the U.S. is this morning’s third-quarter revised GDP report. GDP is expected to be up 3.3%, year-on-year.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, revised corporate profits, the monthly house price index, and leading economic indicators.

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The bull market in U.S. stock indexes rolls on, as the major indexes this week hit new contract and record highs. There are no early, solid technical clues to suggest market tops are close at hand for the U.S. indexes. The “Santa Claus” rally that stock markets typically see at the end of the year has been taking place ALL of this year. For the March e-mini S&P futures, prices will have to drop below chart support at 2,650.00 before bullish near-term technical power is significantly dented. Stay tuned!–Jim

Wednesday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. House and Senate passed the highly anticipated tax-reform bill Wednesday. Now the bill heads back to the House for final approval and then a signature by President Trump. Lower U.S. tax rates coming in 2018 have added to the upbeat attitudes among traders and investors worldwide.

In overnight news, reports said China is expected to soon launch a Chinese yuan-based crude oil futures market. China wants to take at least some of crude oil’s market-making out of London and New York. China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. A successful China crude oil futures market would challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in world crude oil pricing. However, many energy market watchers say the Chinese have a long way to go before a China oil futures market would seriously challenge those in New York and London.

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Tuesday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be little risk aversion in the world marketplace, and that’s bullish for world stock markets, many of which are at or near record or multi-year highs.

Look for trading activity in most markets to dwindle as this week progresses, ahead of the upcoming Christmas holiday weekend.

In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business climate index fell in December to 117.2 from the record high of 117.6 in November. A number of 117.5 was expected for December.

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The firmly bearish postures of the corn and wheat futures markets are finally bringing down the soybean futures. See on the daily bar chart for March soybeans that recent price action has negated an uptrend line. The bears have regained the near-term technical advantage, to suggest soybean prices will drift sideways to lower at least into the end of the year, and possible the first few weeks of January. The fundamental focus of the soybean market now turns to growing conditions in South American soybean country. Stay tuned!–Jim

Monday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at record highs when the New York day session begins. There is growing optimism in the world marketplace that the U.S. Congress will soon pass tax-reform legislation that would likely to spur better U.S. economic growth.

The CME Group on Sunday launched its bitcoin futures contract, which is expected to generate much more trading volume than the Cboe futures contract that began trading last week. Early CME futures trading saw bitcoin prices push above $20,000 before backing off.

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