Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight, in quieter action amid a lack of fresh, major news to impact prices. U.S. stock indexes are also narrowly mixed just ahead of the opening of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs that were hit Tuesday.

The economic highlight in the U.S. trading session will be the afternoon release of the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, by the time the minutes are out, many traders will have already hit the exit doors to get an early start on the Thanksgiving holiday. Look for trading activity in most markets to start tapering way off later this morning.

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Tuesday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are firmer ahead of the opening of the New York day session.

Markets are still reacting to the failed efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government on Sunday. Reports late Monday said Merkel would rather hold another election than form a coalition. This has created uncertainty in world markets but especially in the European markets. The European Union’s largest economy appears to be in leadership crisis. This news has put downside pressure on the Euro currency this week, which in turn has boosted the U.S. dollar index and safe-haven gold prices.

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The Euro currency bulls gained some upside momentum last week by pushing prices above and negating a downtrend line. Prices have backed off a bit from last week’s high on a normal corrective pullback. This week’s price action will be extra important for the Euro. If Euro prices can add to last week’s upside action, then technical odds would be good that a near-term price uptrend can be sustained into the end of the year, and even beyond. Downside price action in the Euro this week would then suggest sideways-to-lower price movement in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!–Jim

Monday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government have failed. This has created uncertainty, especially in the European markets, as the European Union’s largest economy now appears to be in somewhat of a temporary leadership crisis.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early this morning and the Euro currency is weaker. The greenback was supported and the Euro pressured on the German political news.

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Friday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight and could not match Wall Street’s good gains Thursday that were inspired in part by upbeat corporate earnings reports and by the U.S. House passage of the tax-reform legislation. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Reports the U.S. special prosecutor on Russia’s purported interference in the last U.S. presidential election will issue a subpoena to the Trump administration have somewhat unsettled the marketplace Friday morning.

The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. The greenback bulls have faded this week. The Euro currency is higher and has seen good gains this week. Euro bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage this week.

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The U.S. stock index bears have gained some downside technical momentum this week, following last week’s bearish “key reversals” down on the daily charts. A key reversal down occurs when a market scores a new high and then backs off the same day to produce a higher high and a lower low than the previous session’s trading range. Key reversals are a chart clue of a trend change set to occur in a market. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also in a bearish posture as the blue MACD line is below the red trigger line, and both lines are trending lower. This week’s selling pressure in the U.S. stock market, combined with last week’s key reversals down, are the strongest evidence seen in some time that the stock indexes have put in near-term market tops. Stay tuned!–Jim