Daily Morning Report

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies rolled into one composite index price. See on the daily bar chart for the USDX that a price uptrend has been negated recently and prices are now in a fledgling downtrend. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, which means the path of least resistance for the index will be sideways to lower for at least the near term. This is good news for the raw commodity market bulls. Most major raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on world markets. When the dollar depreciates against other currencies, it makes those raw commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to firmer openings ahead of the opening of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes this week have hit record highs. The U.S. stock market closes early today.

Some upbeat economic data coming out of Germany Thursday and Friday suggest the political instability there has not impacted the economy, so far. The German Ifo business climate index came in at 117.5 in November—well above market expectations and at a record high. The Ifo report said the German economy is on track for a boom. This news rallied the Euro currency to a five-week high on Friday.

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The Nymex crude oil futures market remains in a solid uptrend as prices are moving in on new highs for the year. There is no doubt the bulls are in firm near-term technical control. However, there is strong psychological resistance that lies just overhead–around the $60.00 level. It’s my bias that crude prices will challenge the $60.00 level and may even poke above it. However, it is doubtful crude oil prices can hold above $60.00 for very long. There are just too many bearish supply and demand fundamentals at work to keep crude prices above that key lelvel. Stay tuned!–Jim

Wednesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight, in quieter action amid a lack of fresh, major news to impact prices. U.S. stock indexes are also narrowly mixed just ahead of the opening of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs that were hit Tuesday.

The economic highlight in the U.S. trading session will be the afternoon release of the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, by the time the minutes are out, many traders will have already hit the exit doors to get an early start on the Thanksgiving holiday. Look for trading activity in most markets to start tapering way off later this morning.

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Tuesday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are firmer ahead of the opening of the New York day session.

Markets are still reacting to the failed efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government on Sunday. Reports late Monday said Merkel would rather hold another election than form a coalition. This has created uncertainty in world markets but especially in the European markets. The European Union’s largest economy appears to be in leadership crisis. This news has put downside pressure on the Euro currency this week, which in turn has boosted the U.S. dollar index and safe-haven gold prices.

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The Euro currency bulls gained some upside momentum last week by pushing prices above and negating a downtrend line. Prices have backed off a bit from last week’s high on a normal corrective pullback. This week’s price action will be extra important for the Euro. If Euro prices can add to last week’s upside action, then technical odds would be good that a near-term price uptrend can be sustained into the end of the year, and even beyond. Downside price action in the Euro this week would then suggest sideways-to-lower price movement in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!–Jim