Daily Morning Report

Monday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government have failed. This has created uncertainty, especially in the European markets, as the European Union’s largest economy now appears to be in somewhat of a temporary leadership crisis.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early this morning and the Euro currency is weaker. The greenback was supported and the Euro pressured on the German political news.

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Friday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight and could not match Wall Street’s good gains Thursday that were inspired in part by upbeat corporate earnings reports and by the U.S. House passage of the tax-reform legislation. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Reports the U.S. special prosecutor on Russia’s purported interference in the last U.S. presidential election will issue a subpoena to the Trump administration have somewhat unsettled the marketplace Friday morning.

The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. The greenback bulls have faded this week. The Euro currency is higher and has seen good gains this week. Euro bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage this week.

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The U.S. stock index bears have gained some downside technical momentum this week, following last week’s bearish “key reversals” down on the daily charts. A key reversal down occurs when a market scores a new high and then backs off the same day to produce a higher high and a lower low than the previous session’s trading range. Key reversals are a chart clue of a trend change set to occur in a market. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also in a bearish posture as the blue MACD line is below the red trigger line, and both lines are trending lower. This week’s selling pressure in the U.S. stock market, combined with last week’s key reversals down, are the strongest evidence seen in some time that the stock indexes have put in near-term market tops. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, on corrective bounces from selling pressure seen earlier this week. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s October consumer price index was reported up 0.1% from September and up 1.4%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets on Thursday morning find U.S. dollar index higher on a corrective bounce from selling pressure seen earlier this week. The greenback bulls have faded, technically, this week. Meantime, the Euro currency is lower on a pullback from this week’s good gains. Euro bulls have gained technical strength this week to suggest at least sideways trading in the near term.

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Wednesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, pressured by falling raw commodity markets, especially crude oil. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

It’s a very heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the consumer price index, real earnings, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

The consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales will be the U.S. data highlights today. CPI in October is forecast to come in at up 0.1% from September and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Retail sales in October are forecast to come in up 0.1% from September.

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The January frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) market is still in a price uptrend and the bulls still have the overall advantage. Prices Monday hit a multi-month high and then backed way off to close near the daily low. This created a bearish “exhaustion tail” on the daily chart, which suggests the bulls ran out of gas at higher price levels and are now very tired. Now, Monday’s high will be very tough overhead resistance for the FCOJ bulls to overcome. Stay tuned!–Jim