Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. There are now concerns a few Republican U.S. senators are balking at the new tax-reform legislation, after reports earlier this week said a compromise had been reached on the bill. Many market watchers would argue the recent world stock market rallies were based in large part on ideas of lower U.S. corporate taxes. Now with a bit more uncertainty on the eventual U.S. tax-reform bill becoming law, bullish traders and investors are wavering a bit. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Russia’s central bank cut its main interest rate by 0.5%. The move boosted the Russian ruble.

In other news, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz on Thursday compared buying bitcoin as an investment vehicle to gambling. One analyst said Poloz’s comments were a direct warning to bitcoin buyers.

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The silver futures market had been trending solidly lower until prices Wednesday saw solid gains, on short covering and bargain hunting. If there is follow-through buying strength in the silver market this week, such would suggest a near-term market bottom is in place, and that prices can trade at least sideways, if not sideways to higher, in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement and press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed raised U.S. interest rates by 0.25%, as expected. However, market watchers were a bit surprised the Fed is projecting tame inflation prospects for the U.S. in the coming months, or longer. This called into question whether the Fed can be as aggressive as it wants to be on its pace of raising interest rates. Thus, the tone of this FOMC meeting, including Yellen’s press conference, was deemed a bit dovish on U.S. monetary policy. Still, the FOMC statement said more interest rate increases are likely in the coming months.

China’s central bank followed the Fed by slightly raising its interest rates Thursday, in an attempt to offset any U.S. rate hike’s impact on the Chinese economy. The European Central Bank and Bank of England hold their regular monetary policy meetings Thursday. No changes in interest rates are expected from those two central banks.

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Wednesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were steady to mixed in subdued trading overnight, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting conclusion this afternoon. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

It’s widely expected the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates by 0.25% this afternoon. Fed chair Janet Yellen will also hold what will likely be her final press conference after the FOMC statement. The marketplace will closely examine the Fed’s economic projections for next year, in trying to anticipate the central bank’s monetary policy moves in 2018.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary policy meetings also take place later this week.

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The gold market has been trending lower since early September and just recently hit a nearly five-month low. The bears are in firm near-term technical control, which means the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower–until there is a near-term chart clue to suggest the downtrend has ended. It will take a move back above $1,300.00 to give the bulls a good boost of power, to then suggest a price uptrend could be sustained. Stay tuned!–Jim

Tuesday, December 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be a general “risk-on” trading attitude in the world marketplace that is boosting equity markets.

The NFIB U.S. small business index was released early this morning and was at a record high for small business optimism.

This is a big week for economic events, as monetary policy meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and Bank of England take place this week. It’s widely expected the Fed will raise interest rates at the conclusion of its FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon. Fed chair Janet Yellen will hold what will likely be her final press conference after the FOMC statement.

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