Daily Morning Report

Monday, August 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the People’s Bank of China cut its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to a record low of 3.45%, while unexpectedly holding steady the five-year rate at 4.2%. Most economists had predicted a 15 basis-point cut. Monday’s move came after a surprising reduction in both short-term loan rates and the medium-term rate by the central bank last week, as it seeks to strike a balance between helping the economy and stemming further depreciation of the Chinese yuan. The Hang Seng stock index declined, headed for its lowest close since November. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “China’s 40-year boom is over, raising fears of extended slump.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.304%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. Trades and investors are looking ahead to the late-week annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak Friday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a six-week low Friday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,436.75 and then at 4,467.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,350.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a six-week low last Friday. Bulls are fading and prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bulllish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,018.25 and then at 15,166.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,609.25 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 10/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at 117 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.22.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a five-week low Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0859 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to higher in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish for corn and especially soybean prices. Scorching temps and slack precip are in the forecast for the Midwest this week. Meantime, it looks like there are better chances for grain to flow out of Ukraine in the coming months. Corn and soybean traders are looking ahead to the annual Pro Farmer crop tour of the Corn Belt that takes place this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The summertime rallies in the U.S. stock indexes have rolled over into near-term downtrends amid keener risk aversion in the general marketplace. China’s weakening economy is the main bearish culprit. Veteran stock market watchers know that what can be the historically turbulent months of September and October lie just ahead.

In overnight news, the Euro zone July consumer price index came in at up 5.3%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $80.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.23%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls are fading and prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,436.75 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,467.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,368.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls are fading and prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,018.25 and then at Wednesday’s high of 15,166.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 120 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 31/32 and then at the contract low of 118 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.14.0 and then at the contract low of 109.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a just bit higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at this week’s high of 1.0978. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at this week’s high of $83.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.95 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans friendlier for corn and especially soybean prices. Hot temps and slack precip are in the forecast for the Midwest this week and into next week. Corn and soybean traders are looking ahead to the annual Pro Farmer crop tour of the Corn Belt that takes place next week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s central bank said it will provide further stimulus to the listing Chinese economy. The central bank said it wants to prevent the Chinese yuan from further depreciation. The central bank also said it will coordinate financial support for local government debt risk and provide support to the housing market. The statements came from the People’s Bank of China second-quarter monetary policy report.

Meantime, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released Wednesday afternoon, reminded traders and investors that the Fed remains committed to bringing down U.S. inflation. The marketplace read the minutes as leaning hawkish. U.S. Treasury yields rose following the release of the minutes, while the U.S. dollar index hit a nine-week high overnight. Gold prices dropped to a five-month low overnight.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.28%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey and leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,467.25 and then at this week’s high of 4,517.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,368.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 15,166.00 and then at this week’s high of 15,335.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,800.00 and then at 14,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 19/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 120 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.20.5 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 109.05.5 and then at  109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a just bit higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0978 and then at 1.1035. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0877 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at this week’s high of $83.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.95 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The downbeat economic news out of China this week has been bearish for the grains. Weather in the Midwest leans friendlier for corn and especially soybean prices. Hot temps and slack precip are in the forecast for the Midwest this week and into next week.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes remain more risk averse at mid-week.

Focus remains on China’s economy. In China, the new property prices decline accelerated in July, highlighting ongoing challenges in one of the top sectors of the world’s second-largest economy. Also, Zhongrong International Trust has at least 30 products that are now overdue and Zhongrong also halted redemptions on some short-term instruments, according to Bloomberg. Reports said the company doesn’t have an immediate plan to cover the payments since its short-term liquidity has suddenly dried up. Zhongrong is among the biggest firms in China. A Wall Street Journal story today has a headline: “China struggles to halt economic slide.”

In other overnight news, the Euro zone second-quarter GDP came in at up 0.3% from the first quarter and up 0.6%, year-on-year. That was in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Worries about demand, amid the dour economic news coming out of China this week, has hit the crude oil market. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 4.2%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction, industrial production and capacity utilization, the FOMC minutes and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,517.75 and then at last week’s high of 4,544.75. Support for active traders is seen at 4,425.00 and then at 4,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,335.00 and then at last week’s high of 15,497.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,020.75 and then at 14,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 120 23/32 and then at this week’s high of 121 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at the contract low of 119 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.10.0 and then at 110.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.24.0 and then at the contract low of 109.11.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0978 and then at 1.1035. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0892 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $892.00 and then at this week’s high of $83.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering following this week’s selling pressure. The downbeat economic news out of China this week has been bearish for the grains. Weather in the Midwest leans neutral to a little friendlier for corn and soybean prices. Warmer temps and less precip are in the forecast for this week and into next week.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff