The December Euro currency futures are in a solid price downtrend, have just recently hit a 2.5-month low and the bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early technical clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The path of least resistance for Euro currency prices remains sideways to lower. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
U.S. data pace accelerates Tuesday
Tuesday, August 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. News Monday that China cut a key tax rate and pledged to shore up its capital markets has boosted trader and investor attitudes in Asia early this week.
It’s a busy U.S. data week, highlighted by Friday’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $80.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.2%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic house indexes, the consumer confidence index, and the JOLTS labor survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,534.50 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at the August low of 4,397.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,164.25 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 27/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last Friday’s low of 119 12/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.14.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 109.25.5 and then at 109.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0936. Shorter-term support is seen at the August low of 1.0827 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-dayy. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.75 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $79.61 and then at last week’s low of $77.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were slightly lower in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Busy U.S. data week ahead
Monday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. News that China cut a key tax rate and pledged to shore up its capital markets boosted trader and investor attitudes in Asia.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.235%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. The data pace picks up rapidly on Tuesday and it’s a big data week, including the employment situation report on Friday.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,534.50 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at the August low of 4,397.75 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,350.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,907.75 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 27/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 119 12/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.03.0 and then at last week’s high of 110.14.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 109.18.5 and then at the contract low of 108.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a 2.5-month Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0900 and then at 1.0936. Shorter-term support is seen at the August low of 1.0827 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at $81.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at last week’s low of $77.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. On tap today are the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Stock index bulls wavering
The U.S. stock indexes the past three weeks have seen their summertime uptrends roll over into fledgling price downtrends. Bulls have faded right ahead of the critical and historically turbulent months of September and October. It could be a rocky couple months for the stock and financial markets. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Powell Jackson Hole speech on deck
Friday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian stock markets were mostly weaker and European stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The marketplace is tentative early Friday morning as traders are awaiting the event of the week, if not the month: the annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The meeting got under way Thursday evening. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday morning at 10:05 a.m. EDT.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a 5.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.253%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,372.25 and then at the August low of 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,720.50 and then at the August low of 14,609.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 23/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at the contract low of 108.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0888 and then at this week’s high of 1.0944. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0777 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.75 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.59 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new. Weather in the Midwest is still slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Very hot temps and slack precip have been gripping the Midwest this week. Cooler temps are coming this weekend but not much rain. The Pro Farmer crop tour production estimates will be released Friday after the grains close.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
USDX trending up
The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX bulls are in near-term technical control as prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart and have just hit a 2.5-month high. The stronger USDX suggests much, if not most, of the marketplace participants expected the U.S. economy to continue to grow and avoid a recession. The up-trending USDX also hints that traders and investors believe U.S. interest rates will continue to creep higher in the coming weeks/months. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff