The U.S. stock indexes the past three weeks have seen their summertime uptrends roll over into fledgling price downtrends. Bulls have faded right ahead of the critical and historically turbulent months of September and October. It could be a rocky couple months for the stock and financial markets. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
Powell Jackson Hole speech on deck
Friday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian stock markets were mostly weaker and European stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The marketplace is tentative early Friday morning as traders are awaiting the event of the week, if not the month: the annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The meeting got under way Thursday evening. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday morning at 10:05 a.m. EDT.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a 5.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.253%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,372.25 and then at the August low of 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,720.50 and then at the August low of 14,609.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 23/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at the contract low of 108.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0888 and then at this week’s high of 1.0944. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0777 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.75 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.59 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new. Weather in the Midwest is still slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Very hot temps and slack precip have been gripping the Midwest this week. Cooler temps are coming this weekend but not much rain. The Pro Farmer crop tour production estimates will be released Friday after the grains close.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
USDX trending up
The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX bulls are in near-term technical control as prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart and have just hit a 2.5-month high. The stronger USDX suggests much, if not most, of the marketplace participants expected the U.S. economy to continue to grow and avoid a recession. The up-trending USDX also hints that traders and investors believe U.S. interest rates will continue to creep higher in the coming weeks/months. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Quieter marketplace at mid-week
Wednesday, August 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Euro zone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) for August came in at 47.0, compared to a consensus forecast of 48.8 and the July reading of 48.6. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction.
Traders and investors are looking ahead to the late-week annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.265%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers indexes, new residential sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,440.00 and then at 4,467.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,372.25 and then at the August low of 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,118.25 and then at 15,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,850.00 and then at the August low of 14,609.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 119 14/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 12/32 and then at the contract low of 117 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.22.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.28.0 and then at 108.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0885 and then at this week’s high of 1.0944. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are down and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at this week’s high of $81.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.50 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest is still slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Scorching temps and slack precip are hitting the Midwest this week. Meantime, it looks like there are better chances for grain to flow out of Ukraine in the coming months. Corn and soybean traders are closely watching the daily results from the annual Pro Farmer crop tour of the Corn Belt that takes place this week. So far, results are seeing better yields that last year in corn and soybeans, and thus a bearish lean for prices.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Markets quieter ahead of Jackson Hole Fed confab
Tuesday, August 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Traders and investors are looking ahead to the late-week annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.308%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and existing home sales.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a six-week low last Friday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,467.25 and then at 4,500.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,372.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer on more short covering after hitting a six-week low last Friday. Prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,166.00 and then at 15,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,943.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,720.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 119 10/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 117 18/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.22.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight contract low of 108.28.0 and then at 108.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0944 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0859 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $82.47 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at last week’s low of $78.95. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish for corn and especially soybean prices. Scorching temps and slack precip are in the forecast for the Midwest this week. Meantime, it looks like there are better chances for grain to flow out of Ukraine in the coming months. Corn and soybean traders are closely watching the daily results from the annual Pro Farmer crop tour of the Corn Belt that takes place this week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Soybeans rally amid scorching heat in Midwest
The grain futures markets have seen price rallies recently, due mostly to scorching hot weather in the U.S. Midwest that is very likely to nip production potential for the corn and soybean crops, and especially soybeans. See on the daily bar chart for November soybeans that prices are starting to trend higher. The Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour this week will provide more information on the conditions of the corn and soybean crops. The tour starts Monday and concludes Friday with corn and soybean production estimates. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff