The crude oil market bulls are flexing their muscles as prices are trending higher and have just hit a 10-month high. The bulls are in solid technical control, which suggests the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher in the near term. There are no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. You will get those early clues on potential trend changes from me, in my daily markets update report that comes out in early afternoons. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
More downbeat China data dents risk appetite
Tuesday, September 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Trader and investor risk appetite is downbeat to start a U.S.-holiday-shortened trading week as China reported some more downbeat economic data. Its Caixin services purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 51.8 is August versus 54.1 July and was below expectations of 53.5. The Caixin composite PMI was 51.7 versus 51.9 July.
Meantime, the Australia’s central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged but said further interest rate hikes may be necessary.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar solidly up and at a six-month high. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit weaker and trading around $85.25 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 4.22%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the employment trends index, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,597.50 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,525.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,771.75 and then at last week’s high of 15,855.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 120 8/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.17.0 and then at 110.28.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at 109.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0863 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0783 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker but hit a 10-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $86.14 and then at $87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly crop progress reports. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for soybean prices. Much of soybean crop needs rain to finish out the growing season. Technicals are bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
US jobs report on deck Friday a.m.
Friday, September 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic data, as its Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) that came in stronger than expected at 51.0 in August versus 49.2 in July. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. China’s central bank announced it is cutting foreign exchange reserve requirements for local banks in an effort to support the depreciating Chinese yuan that has lost more than 5% against the U.S. dollar. FOREX reserve requirements for banks will be lowered to 4% from 6% in order to improve the capacity of Chinese financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds.
Meantime, the Euro zone reported its August manufacturing PMI was 43.5 versus expectations for a reading of 43.7, and compares with the July reading of 42.7.
A busy U.S. data week will be highlighted by Friday morning’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report. Mostly downbeat U.S. data released so far this week has many thinking today’s jobs report will be in line with market expectations, or a bit weaker.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $84.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.114%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, domestic auto industry sales and construction spending.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,546.25 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,801.00 and then at 15,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,556.25 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 120 23/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.03.5 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 110.18.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at this week’s high of 1.1002. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0843 and then at the August low of 1.0827. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $83.46 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Not much new this week. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for soybean prices. Much of soybean crop needs rain to finish out the growing season. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts. Technicals are bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Gold bulls have some momentum
The gold futures market has seen a decent rebound from the August low and this week hit a three-week high. More price gains in the near term would negate the downtrend line seen on the daily chart and give the bulls more power. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have near-term momentum on their side. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
More import U.S. data due Thursday
Thursday, August 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the personal income and outlays report for August, including the closely watched PCE inflation readings. The core PCE reading is expected to come in at up 4.2%, year-on-year, compared to up 4.1% in the July report.
The busy U.S. data week is highlighted by Friday’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report. Downbeat U.S. data released so far this week has many thinking Friday’s jobs report will be in line with market expectations, or a bit weaker.
In overnight news, China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for August had a reading of 49.7, up from July’s 49.2 figure. The services PMI for August was 50.5 compared to 51.5 in the July report. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The manufacturing PMI was below 50.0 for the fifth straight month and the services PMI declined for the sixth straight month.
The Euro zone August consumer price index came in at up 5.3%, year-on-year, which was unchanged from the July report and right in line with market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly firmer and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.1%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays (including the closely watched PCE inflation numbers), the Chicago ISM business survey and the monthly retail chain store sales index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,546.25 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,750.00 and then at 15,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,556.25 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 23/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 120 23/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.03.5 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 110.18.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1002 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0843. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at the August high of $84.16. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $80.88 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for soybean prices. Much of soybean crop needs rain to finish out the growing season. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts. Technicals are bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Busy U.S. data day Wednesday
Wednesday, August 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Sentiment overseas has improved this week as China continues to implement measures to stimulate its listing economy. Reports say China’s largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages to support consumer spending and the property sector.
In overnight news, the Euro zone economic sentiment index dropped to 93.3 in August from 94.5 in July, but was in line with market expectations.
A busy U.S. data week is highlighted by Friday’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.147%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, including the closely watched PCE price indexes, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,566.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,464.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,659.75 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,164.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 17/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 24/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.29.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0951 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0843. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at the August high of $84.16. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at this week’s low of $79.34. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Not much new at mid-week. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff