The gold futures market has seen a decent rebound from the August low and this week hit a three-week high. More price gains in the near term would negate the downtrend line seen on the daily chart and give the bulls more power. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have near-term momentum on their side. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
More import U.S. data due Thursday
Thursday, August 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the personal income and outlays report for August, including the closely watched PCE inflation readings. The core PCE reading is expected to come in at up 4.2%, year-on-year, compared to up 4.1% in the July report.
The busy U.S. data week is highlighted by Friday’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report. Downbeat U.S. data released so far this week has many thinking Friday’s jobs report will be in line with market expectations, or a bit weaker.
In overnight news, China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for August had a reading of 49.7, up from July’s 49.2 figure. The services PMI for August was 50.5 compared to 51.5 in the July report. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The manufacturing PMI was below 50.0 for the fifth straight month and the services PMI declined for the sixth straight month.
The Euro zone August consumer price index came in at up 5.3%, year-on-year, which was unchanged from the July report and right in line with market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly firmer and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.1%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays (including the closely watched PCE inflation numbers), the Chicago ISM business survey and the monthly retail chain store sales index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,546.25 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,750.00 and then at 15,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 15,556.25 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 23/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 120 23/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.03.5 and then at 111.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 110.18.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1002 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0843. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at the August high of $84.16. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $80.88 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for soybean prices. Much of soybean crop needs rain to finish out the growing season. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts. Technicals are bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Busy U.S. data day Wednesday
Wednesday, August 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Sentiment overseas has improved this week as China continues to implement measures to stimulate its listing economy. Reports say China’s largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages to support consumer spending and the property sector.
In overnight news, the Euro zone economic sentiment index dropped to 93.3 in August from 94.5 in July, but was in line with market expectations.
A busy U.S. data week is highlighted by Friday’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.147%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, including the closely watched PCE price indexes, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,566.00 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,464.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,659.75 and then at 15,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,164.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 17/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 24/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.29.5 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 110.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 109.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0951 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0843. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at the August high of $84.16. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at this week’s low of $79.34. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Not much new at mid-week. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Euro currency bears in command
The December Euro currency futures are in a solid price downtrend, have just recently hit a 2.5-month low and the bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early technical clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The path of least resistance for Euro currency prices remains sideways to lower. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff
U.S. data pace accelerates Tuesday
Tuesday, August 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. News Monday that China cut a key tax rate and pledged to shore up its capital markets has boosted trader and investor attitudes in Asia early this week.
It’s a busy U.S. data week, highlighted by Friday’s employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000, compared to a rise of 187,000 in the July report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $80.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.2%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic house indexes, the consumer confidence index, and the JOLTS labor survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,534.50 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at the August low of 4,397.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,164.25 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 27/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last Friday’s low of 119 12/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 110.14.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 109.25.5 and then at 109.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0936. Shorter-term support is seen at the August low of 1.0827 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-dayy. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.75 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $79.61 and then at last week’s low of $77.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were slightly lower in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. However, little to no rain and hotter temps are in the forecasts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Busy U.S. data week ahead
Monday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. News that China cut a key tax rate and pledged to shore up its capital markets boosted trader and investor attitudes in Asia.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.235%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. The data pace picks up rapidly on Tuesday and it’s a big data week, including the employment situation report on Friday.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,534.50 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at the August low of 4,397.75 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,350.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,907.75 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 120 27/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 119 12/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 110.03.0 and then at last week’s high of 110.14.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 109.18.5 and then at the contract low of 108.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a 2.5-month Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0900 and then at 1.0936. Shorter-term support is seen at the August low of 1.0827 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at $81.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at last week’s low of $77.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Much of the corn and soybean crops need rain to finish out their growing seasons. On tap today are the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff