Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, August 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. There is some keener risk aversion in the marketplace at mid-week, following the surprise move by the Fitch credit rating agency to downgrade U.S. the government’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA. It was the first downgrade by a major credit rating agency in more than a decade. Fitch cited “expected fiscal deterioration” of the U.S. government in the coming years, amid a growing government debt burden. Traders and investors are not badly shaken over the surprise Fitch news, but it did somewhat deflate heretofore upbeat marketplace attitudes that had recently pushed U.S. stock indexes to new highs for the year. The news came just as former President Donald Trump was indicted for trying to overthrow the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Needless to say, this is not one of the U.S.’s finer moments, as viewed by global market participants.  

Traders today will closely examine this morning’s U.S. ADP national employment report for July, which is expected to come in at up 175,000 versus a gain of 497,000 in the June report. Traders are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week on Friday: the U.S. employment situation report for July. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.75 a barrel. A Wall Street Journal story today has the headline: Oil prices perk up as recession worries ebb and supply tightens.” Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.025%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the MBA weekly mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near the high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at the July high of 4,634.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,552.25 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,789.25 and then at this week’s high of 15,917.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,590.25 and then at last week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 124 even and then at this week’s high of 124 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 122 26/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.20.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1072 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0970 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.52 and then at Monday’s low of $80.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Bulls have faded badly this week. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are not bullish. Cooler temps and better rainfall chances are expected the next several days. There is also talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe. Some keener risk aversion at mid-week may also keep the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in low-key overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. 

Trading may remain more subdued this week, ahead of the U.S. data point of the week on Friday: the U.S. employment situation report for July. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone July manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 42.7 versus the June reading of 43.4. The July reading was right in line with market expectations. A number below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

In other news, the World Gold Council said global demand for gold fell 2% in the second quarter, to 921 metric tons, due to higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. economy that has kept the Federal Reserve hawkish this year. However, central bank demand for gold hit a record high in the first half of 2023, at 387 metric tons, said the WGC.

The Royal Bank of Australia left its interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting Tuesday, but said further policy tightening may be required. The RBA said inflation is declining but is still too high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $81.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.969%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI and domestic auto industry sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near the high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,634.50 and then at 4,675.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,553.75 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,917.00 and then at the July high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,650.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 124 21/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 26/32 and then at last week’s low of 123 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.20.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1072 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0991 and then at last week’s low of 1.0970. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $82.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $80.13 and then at $78.29. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Bulls have faded badly with Monday’s steep losses. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are not bullish early this week. Cooler temps and better rainfall chances are expected the next several days. There is also talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Eurozone inflation eased in July, at up 5.3%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 5.5% in June. The July reading was in line with market expectations.

The U.S. data point of the week is the U.S. employment situation report for July, which is out Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $81.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.981%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near the high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,634.50 and then at 4,675.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,553.75 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,917.00 and then at the July high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,650.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 124 21/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 123 9/32 and then at the July low of 122 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 111.21.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1031 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $81.44 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.13 and then at $78.29. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are not so bullish early this week. Cooler temps and better rainfall chances are expected the next several days. There is also talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at or near their highs for the year amid a summertime rally.

Traders are awaiting some more U.S. inflation data today, as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) component of the personal income and outlays report will be closely scrutinized. The June PCE core index is seen coming in up 4.2%, year-on-year, versus a reading of up 4.6% in the May report.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan made a surprise move that the global marketplace noticed. The BOJ made no interest rate change but it did say it will allow Japanese 10-year government bond (JGB) yields to be more “flexible” (meaning allowing yields to rise). That’s significant because the BOJ has been a last bastion for major central banks with ultra-low interest rates. The new BOJ stance on its yield-curve range hints to the marketplace that Japanese investors, who have been big holders of U.S. Treasuries, may now move more toward the JGBs and their potentially higher yields, and away from U.S. Treasuries. The Japanese yen rallied on the news.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. The USDX has made a solid rebound from the July low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.975%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,634.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,553.75 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,904.00 and then at the July high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,483.75 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 9/32 and then at the July low of 122 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 112.07.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at this week’s high of 1.1177. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0970 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a three-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $80.60 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $78.87 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. While weather in the Midwest still leans bullish, with hot temps and light precipitation late this week, there is talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe. This follows Russia’s cancellation of a grain-shipping deal with Ukraine and Russia’s attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans and modestly bullish for corn and wheat futures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff