Daily Morning Report

Friday, July 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes this week hit new highs for the year amid upbeat trader and investor attitudes. There was no major, markets-moving news overnight. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.849%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,528.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,850.00 and then at the contract high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at this week’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 29/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1200 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1261. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1061. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the July high of $77.15 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at this week’s low of $73.78. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading, on corrective pullbacks from this week’s gains. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are turning hotter and drier next week. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine grain facilities and termination of the grain-shipping deal this week are also bullish. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans, and slightly bullish for corn and wheat futures. Look for soybeans to be the leader of the grain markets for the next several weeks. August is the critical growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes Wednesday hit new highs for the year amid upbeat trader and investor attitudes. U.S. inflation is trending lower and the U.S. economy is not too hot and not too cold.

Here is my mid-summer take on key markets:

–U.S. dollar depreciation: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a 15-month low. Veteran market watchers know that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Look for the USDX to continue to trend lower until at least early September. After the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September, market participants will get back down to more serious business, what with summer vacations over and the kids back in school. Markets can become more volatile in September, so the price downtrend in the U.S. dollar index could accelerate, or reverse. Until then, the path of least resistance for the USDX will remain sideways to lower—barring an unexpected geopolitical event that would likely drive safe-haven demand into U.S. dollars.

–U.S. stock indexes trending up: The U.S. stock indexes have been trending higher since early May and this week hit new highs for the year. So much for the old stock market adage, “Sell in May and go away.” The uptrends in the stock indexes have been unassuming and with low volatility. Those are signs the uptrends can continue in the coming weeks—at least until early September. Veteran stock market traders know the months of September and October can be rocky ones for the equities market.

–Crude oil prices on the rise: Nymex crude oil futures prices in mid-July hit a 2.5-month high and are presently trending higher. That’s a bullish element for most of the raw commodity sector. Rising oil prices also suggest the general marketplace thinks the U.S./global economy will not slip into recession in the coming months. It appears Nymex crude will continue to trend up in the coming weeks. However, there is strong chart resistance at the $82.00 to $85.00 area that will likely cap gains.

–Gold and Silver bulls come to life:  The past couple weeks have seen the gold and silver markets negate their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts and begin price uptrends. The eroding U.S. dollar index, easing inflation fears and a rally in crude oil prices are bullish elements for the precious metals that should continue to support sideways-to-higher price action into the end of summer.

–Government bond yields have dipped: Notions of “light at the end of the tunnel” regarding hawkish major central banks and their interest rate hikes have stabilized government bond yields and even allowed some to decline a bit. This is due to inflationary pressures easing over the past several months. Look for the trajectory of inflation to continue to be down until at least September. That means likely declining government bond yields in the coming weeks, albeit probably just modest dips.

–Grain market bulls coming back to life: The grain market bulls are back in business this week amid weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest that are turning hotter and drier as the calendar turns to August, and amid the end of the Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal this week. Russia attacked a major Ukraine grain terminal earlier this week to add keener uncertainty regarding any grain shipments coming out of the Black Sea region. Technicals are presently fully bullish for soybeans, turning more bullish for corn, and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat. However, if the corn and soybean markets continue to rally, wheat markets will very likely follow suit. The month of August is the most critical growing month of the U.S. soybean crop. So look for soybeans to be the leader of the grain markets in the coming weeks.

In overnight news, China’s central bank left its main interest rates unchanged.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up trading around $75.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.786%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and near this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,528.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high on Wednesday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,062.75 and then at 16,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,799.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 24/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 126 22/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.31.0 and then at this week’s high of 113.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.13.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 15-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.1274 and then at this week’s high of 1.1310. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1208 and then at 1.1166. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the July high of $77.33 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.84 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Bulls are having a good week. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are turning hotter and drier next week. Russia attacked a major Ukraine grain terminal earlier this week and said it will consider all ships in the Black Sea as hostile. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans, and modestly bullish for corn and wheat futures. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts, with prices this week hitting their highs for the year. Solid quarterly earnings results from U.S. banks are also helping drive stock index prices higher.

In overnight news, the Euro zone June consumer price index was reported up 5.5%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up trading around $75.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.754%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at 4,625.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,528.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,029.75 and then at 16,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,799.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 18/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 24/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.08.0 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 112.13.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a 15-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1310 and then at 1.1350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1230 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.09 and then at the July high of $77.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.84 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were solidly higher overnight. Bulls are back in business this week amid weather forecasts for the Midwest that are turning hotter and drier, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal this week. Russia attacked a major Ukraine grain terminal earlier this week. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans, turning more bullish for corn, and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight developments, China got some more downbeat economic news Monday, as the world’s second-largest economy’s gross domestic product showed 6.3% growth in the second quarter, year-on-year, which was below expectations for a rise of 6.9%. The news put some downside price pressure on the metals and crude oil markets. “The Chinese economy is clearly sputtering,” said one analyst in a Wall Street Journal story on the matter.

A couple of interesting headlines in the Wall Street Journal: “Economists dial back (U.S.) recession predictions” and “Traders position for soft landing.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower trading around $74.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.779%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey. The data pace picks up speed Tuesday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and near last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,560.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,470.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,857.25 and then at 16,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 14,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 127 6/32 and then at the July high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 5/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.03.0 and then at 113.15.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.14.0 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting another 15-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1284 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at 1.1166. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.09 and then at the July high of $77.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.84 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, supported by news Russia has announced it is pulling out of the grain-shipping deal with Ukraine and the United Nations. The corn market is still overall bearish, soybeans are bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are benign at present.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Said Craig Erlam of OANDA in a Friday morning email dispatch: “It’s shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week… on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US. Inflation was already well off its highs but there was something about (the U.S. CPI) report that was different. Not only did it beat on the headline and core level but both of the monthly readings were also incredibly positive. Now it’s just a question of whether that can be sustained. The light at the end of the tightening tunnel is getting brighter and investors are increasingly confident of emerging after one more (Fed) hike in two weeks. At which point the focus will turn to the U.S. economy and whether a soft landing can still be achieved before the discussion pivots to rate cuts.”

The potential “fly in the ointment” for a sustainable global economic recovery is downbeat economic data that has been coming out of China lately. The world’s second-largest economy is a voracious consumer of raw commodities. A Wall Street Journal report today said: “Exports are crumbling in China and across Asia, showing the deepening toll that rising interest rates are taking on global trade and economic growth.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit higher and hitting a 15-month low in overnight trading. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.787%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near this week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,551.50 and then at 4,575.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,509.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,470.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower but near this week’s contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s contract high of 15,741.25 and then at 15,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 15,456.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 2/32 and then at the July high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 15/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 113.03.0 and then at 113.15.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 112.21.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 112.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 15-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1280 and then at 1.1300. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1200 and then at Thursday’s low of 1.1166. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.33 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. It’s been a choppy trading week in the grains. The corn market is still overall bearish, soybeans are bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not bullish. The Midwest weather will have to in a hurry turn hotter and drier than present extended forecasts, in order to reignite another weather scare this summer.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff