Daily Morning Report

Thursday, July 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The indexes are at or near their highs for the year amid a summertime rally.

The marketplace Thursday morning looks like it has pretty much digested Wednesday afternoon’s 25 basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference were deemed not too hawkish and not too dovish and the markets showed no big reactions. Some Fed watchers are thinking the central bank is now done with its rate-hike cycle, while others think the Fed will do one more rate increase in November.

In overnight news, the European Central Bank is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate at today’s monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.869%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance estimate for second-quarter GDP that includes the closely watched PCE price index, durable goods orders, advance economic indicators, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 15-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at 4,675.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,591.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,560.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 16,062.75 and then at 16,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,631.50 and then at this week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 10/32 and then at this week’s high of 127 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.07.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.17.5 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1105 and then at this week’s low of 1.1051. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s three-month high. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.90 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $78.29 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly higher in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish: hot with little to no precipitation this week. The Russia-Ukraine war has recently escalated to include more attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans and moderately bullish for corn and wheat futures. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most market watchers believe the Fed will raise the main U.S. rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.25%. As usual, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the coming months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.891%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,560.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,528.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,739.25 and then at 15,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,483.75 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 126 6/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.17.5 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1051 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.90 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $78.29 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower in overnight trading on more profit taking and downside corrections from recent strong gains. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish: very hot with little to no precipitation this week. Meantime, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated to include more attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are bullish for soybeans for corn and wheat futures. Look for higher volatility in the grain in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, July 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Chinese officials said they plan to implement stimulus measures to support its ailing property sector. The move was seen as disappointing by China watchers, who wanted more stimulus action in the broader economy.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most market watchers believe the Fed will raise the main U.S. rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.25%. As usual, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the coming months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.9%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Case-Shiller home indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,550.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,528.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 15,719.25 and then at 15,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,483.75 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 6/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.01.5 and then at Monday’s high of 112.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.16.0 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1117 and then at Monday’s high of 1.1177. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1070 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $79.28 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $76.44 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading on profit taking and downside corrections from recent strong gains. Weather in the Midwest is very hot with little to no precipitation this week. Meantime, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated to included more attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are bullish for soybeans for corn and wheat futures. Look for higher volatility in the grain in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, July 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are hovering near their highs for the year.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most market watchers believe the Fed will rise the main U.S. rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.25%. As usual, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the coming months.

A Barron’s news headline today reads: “Tech earnings, Fed rate call, inflation data—expect crucial answers this week.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.807%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, and the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs).

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,550.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,528.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 15,719.25 and then at 15,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at last week’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 125 29/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.20.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1095 and then at 1.1061. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.44 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were sharply higher in overnight trading. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are for very hot temps and little to no precipitation this week. Meantime, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated, including attacks on Ukraine grain facilities and the recent termination of the grain-shipping deal. Technicals are bullish for soybeans for corn and wheat futures. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sale and weekly crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff