Daily Morning Report

Monday, July 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. 

In overnight news, Eurozone inflation eased in July, at up 5.3%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 5.5% in June. The July reading was in line with market expectations.

The U.S. data point of the week is the U.S. employment situation report for July, which is out Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $81.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.981%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near the high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,634.50 and then at 4,675.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,553.75 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,917.00 and then at the July high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,650.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 124 21/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 123 9/32 and then at the July low of 122 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 111.21.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1031 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $81.44 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.13 and then at $78.29. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are not so bullish early this week. Cooler temps and better rainfall chances are expected the next several days. There is also talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, July 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at or near their highs for the year amid a summertime rally.

Traders are awaiting some more U.S. inflation data today, as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) component of the personal income and outlays report will be closely scrutinized. The June PCE core index is seen coming in up 4.2%, year-on-year, versus a reading of up 4.6% in the May report.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan made a surprise move that the global marketplace noticed. The BOJ made no interest rate change but it did say it will allow Japanese 10-year government bond (JGB) yields to be more “flexible” (meaning allowing yields to rise). That’s significant because the BOJ has been a last bastion for major central banks with ultra-low interest rates. The new BOJ stance on its yield-curve range hints to the marketplace that Japanese investors, who have been big holders of U.S. Treasuries, may now move more toward the JGBs and their potentially higher yields, and away from U.S. Treasuries. The Japanese yen rallied on the news.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. The USDX has made a solid rebound from the July low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.975%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,634.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,553.75 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,904.00 and then at the July high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,483.75 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 9/32 and then at the July low of 122 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 112.07.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at this week’s high of 1.1177. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0970 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a three-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $80.60 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $78.87 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower in overnight trading. While weather in the Midwest still leans bullish, with hot temps and light precipitation late this week, there is talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe. This follows Russia’s cancellation of a grain-shipping deal with Ukraine and Russia’s attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans and modestly bullish for corn and wheat futures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, July 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The indexes are at or near their highs for the year amid a summertime rally.

The marketplace Thursday morning looks like it has pretty much digested Wednesday afternoon’s 25 basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference were deemed not too hawkish and not too dovish and the markets showed no big reactions. Some Fed watchers are thinking the central bank is now done with its rate-hike cycle, while others think the Fed will do one more rate increase in November.

In overnight news, the European Central Bank is expected to slightly raise its main interest rate at today’s monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.869%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance estimate for second-quarter GDP that includes the closely watched PCE price index, durable goods orders, advance economic indicators, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 15-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,650.00 and then at 4,675.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,591.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,560.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the July high of 16,062.75 and then at 16,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,631.50 and then at this week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 10/32 and then at this week’s high of 127 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.07.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.17.5 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1105 and then at this week’s low of 1.1051. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s three-month high. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.90 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $78.29 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly higher in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish: hot with little to no precipitation this week. The Russia-Ukraine war has recently escalated to include more attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are fully bullish for soybeans and moderately bullish for corn and wheat futures. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, July 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most market watchers believe the Fed will raise the main U.S. rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.25%. As usual, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the coming months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.891%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,560.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,528.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,739.25 and then at 15,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,483.75 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 126 6/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.17.5 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1051 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.90 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $78.29 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly lower in overnight trading on more profit taking and downside corrections from recent strong gains. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish: very hot with little to no precipitation this week. Meantime, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated to include more attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are bullish for soybeans for corn and wheat futures. Look for higher volatility in the grain in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff