Daily Morning Report

Thursday, June 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.1% from the fourth quarter. Meantime, the fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.1%. That means the Euro zone technically entered a recession in the first quarter, albeit just barely.

In other news, the Turkish lira hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar, prompting some worries of a possible currency contagion at some point, if the lira continues to weaken.

The marketplace is starting to zero in on next week’s FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. The majority of the marketplace thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. But now many market watchers think the U.S. central bank will follow the Bank of Canada’s recent moves. The BOC this week raised interest rates by 0.25% after a four-month pause. The BOC’s move “brings home the reality that a pause needn’t be a pivot. It can also be a way to slow down increases while fresh data come in,” said a Wall Street Journal story today.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.811%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,348.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,700.00 and then at this week’s high of 14,869.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,420.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 17/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the May low of 125 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.07.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the May low of 112.29.5 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the May low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at this week’s high of $75.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Weather in the Corn Belt leans slightly bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s exports fell more than expected in May. Exports declined 7.5% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, missing consensus for a 1.8% drop. Imports fell a less-than- expected 4.5% in May, year-on-year, after being forecast down 8.1%. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “China’s trade slowdown points to global woes.” The story said China’s post-Covid economy is sputtering and global trade is “cooling rapidly” amid major central banks tightening their monetary policies.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $72.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.683%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, international trade in goods and services data, consumer credit and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and near Monday’s nine-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,348.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-month high Monday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,869.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,420.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 16/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the Tuesday’s low of 127 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 126 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.06.5 and then at 114.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 113.10.0 and then at the May low of 112.29.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the May low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at this week’s high of $75.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Bullish for the grains is the destruction of a major dam in Ukraine this week that is likely to produce major flooding and could seriously damage crops in the region. Traders are watching this situation closely. Weather in the Corn Belt leans a bit bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. equities bulls remain resilient as the major stock indexes trade at or near their highs for the year.

In overnight news, reports said China financial authorities are asking nation’s largest lenders to lower their deposit rates in order to boost economic growth. State-owned banks, including the Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications were last week advised to cut rates on their deposits by 5 basis points on demand deposits and 10 basis points on three- and five-year deposits.

Australia’s central bank Tuesday raised its main interest rate by 0.25%, to 4.10%. The bank said more rate hikes may be needed to contain inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and are trading around $70.75 a barrel. The marketplace is taking note of oil’s inability to rally in the aftermath of Saudi Arabia’s surprise move pledging to unilaterally cut its oil production by 1 million barrels per day starting in July. Nymex crude prices are presently lower than they were just prior to the weekend Saudi news. A Wall Street Journal story headline today reads: “Commodity prices signal slump.” Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.662%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower after hitting a nine-month high on Monday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,348.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-month high Monday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 14,869.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 14,684.50 and then at last week’s low of 14,420.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at last week’s high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 19/32 and then at this week’s low of 126 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.12.0 and then at 114.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.24.0 and then at this week’s low of 113.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.03 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices solidly higher overnight. Bullish for the grains is the destruction of a major dam in Ukraine that is likely to produce major flooding and could seriously damage crops in the region. Traders will watch this situation closely. Weather in the Corn Belt is still mostly benign for the grain markets, but it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The stronger U.S. non-farm payrolls jobs rise in last Friday’s May employment report reminded the marketplace that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain hawkish on its monetary policy for longer. 

In weekend news, Saudi Arabia decided to unilaterally cut its crude oil production by around 1 million barrels per day, starting in July. Meantime, the OPEC-plus cartel at its meeting decided to leave its collective crude oil output unchanged.

In other news, the Euro zone producer price index for May came in at up 1.0%, year-on-year, which was lower than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and are trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.747%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments, orders and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady after hitting a nine-month high on Friday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,340.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-week high last Friday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,800.00 and then at 14,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,420.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 28/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 16/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.24.5 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.10.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $75.06 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.25 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are still all bearish. Weather in the Corn Belt is still mostly benign for the grain markets, but it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff