Daily Morning Report

Monday, June 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European stock indexes were mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It may be a quieter trading day Monday, just ahead of an important batch of economic data released this week.

The U.S. data point of the week is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. A majority of the marketplace still thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. However, a stronger U.S. jobs report last Friday has bolstered those outliers who are thinking the Fed will make another rate hike this week.

Other important U.S. economic reports out this week include the consumer and producer price index reports for May on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The CPI is forecast up 4.0%, year-on-year, while the PPI is seen down 0.1%, month-on-month.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $68.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.743%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and near a 10-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,369.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,305.75 and then at 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices are near a 10-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 14,869.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,425.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 128 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 3/32 and then at 126 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 113.23.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.06.5 and then at the May low of 112.29.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0848 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0756 and then at the May low of 1.0702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at Friday’s high of $71.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.67 and then at the June low of $67.03. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field, while wheat and soybean markets are bearish. Weather in the Corn Belt leans slightly bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s producer price index unexpectedly dropped sharply in May, at down 4.6%, year-on-year. That’s the biggest drop in seven years. China’s consumer price index rose 0.2%, year-on-year. This latest data from China is another clue that major central banks of the world are taming problematic inflation.

The marketplace is looking ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. A majority of the marketplace thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. But now many market watchers think the U.S. central bank will follow the Bank of Canada’s recent moves. The BOC this week raised interest rates by 0.25% after a four-month pause.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Crude prices briefly dropped sharply Thursday on reports the U.S. and Iran may be getting close to an agreement on its nuclear program that could prompt the lifting of oil sanctions on Iran. However, prices recovered as most traders doubt the U.S. and Iran can really come to terms on the matter. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.755%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,348.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,305.75 and then at 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,869.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,425.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 18/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.23.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the May low of 112.29.5 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0846 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0756 and then at the May low of 1.0702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.28 and then at this week’s high of $75.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $69.03. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field, while wheat and soybean markets are bearish. Weather in the Corn Belt leans slightly bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.1% from the fourth quarter. Meantime, the fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.1%. That means the Euro zone technically entered a recession in the first quarter, albeit just barely.

In other news, the Turkish lira hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar, prompting some worries of a possible currency contagion at some point, if the lira continues to weaken.

The marketplace is starting to zero in on next week’s FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. The majority of the marketplace thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. But now many market watchers think the U.S. central bank will follow the Bank of Canada’s recent moves. The BOC this week raised interest rates by 0.25% after a four-month pause. The BOC’s move “brings home the reality that a pause needn’t be a pivot. It can also be a way to slow down increases while fresh data come in,” said a Wall Street Journal story today.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.811%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,348.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,700.00 and then at this week’s high of 14,869.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,420.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 126 17/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the May low of 125 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.07.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the May low of 112.29.5 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the May low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at this week’s high of $75.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Weather in the Corn Belt leans slightly bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s exports fell more than expected in May. Exports declined 7.5% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, missing consensus for a 1.8% drop. Imports fell a less-than- expected 4.5% in May, year-on-year, after being forecast down 8.1%. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “China’s trade slowdown points to global woes.” The story said China’s post-Covid economy is sputtering and global trade is “cooling rapidly” amid major central banks tightening their monetary policies.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $72.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.683%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, international trade in goods and services data, consumer credit and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and near Monday’s nine-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,348.75 and then at 4,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,300.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,269.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-month high Monday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,869.50 and then at 15,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 14,420.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 16/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the Tuesday’s low of 127 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 126 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.06.5 and then at 114.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 113.10.0 and then at the May low of 112.29.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the May low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at this week’s high of $75.06. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Bullish for the grains is the destruction of a major dam in Ukraine this week that is likely to produce major flooding and could seriously damage crops in the region. Traders are watching this situation closely. Weather in the Corn Belt leans a bit bullish for the grain markets, as it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff