Daily Morning Report

Friday, June 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The general marketplace has breathed a sigh of relief after the U.S. Senate passed the government debt-ceiling-extensions bill, following House passage earlier this week. The bill will now be signed by President Biden.

Traders are now focusing on the Labor Department’s employment situation report for May on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 compared to the April non-farm jobs number of up 253,000. A big miss on the consensus NFP forecast would likely cause higher markets volatility in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report.

Traders and investors are still buzzing about the Wall Street Journal report Thursday that said the Fed is likely to pause in its interest-rate-hiking cycle at the June FOMC meeting, before raising rates again later this summer. That’s a shift from the consensus marketplace belief just recently that the Fed would again raise rates at the June FOMC meeting. However, a “sizzling jobs report” on Friday would likely throw cold water on the Fed pause, said the WSJ report. Reads a Barrons headline this morning: “A Fed pause now looks likely, but don’t mistake it for a pivot.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and are trading around $71.00 a barrel. The OPEC-plus oil cartel meets this weekend. While there seems to be a widely held view the group won’t announce any further production cuts, it’s worth noting that the same was true at the last meeting and then the group announced cuts of roughly another million barrels, notes analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.616%. 

There is no other U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,216.00 and then at 4,187.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s nine-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,737.00 and then at 14,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,420.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 129 16/32 and then at 130 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 128 even and then at 127 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.00.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at this week’s low of 1.0702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.00 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at today’s low of $70.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are still all overall bearish. Weather in the Corn Belt is mostly benign for the grain markets, but it is dry in some regions. Don’t be surprised if some degree of a weather market scare pops up in the near term.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has been assuaged by the U.S. House of Representatives handily passing the government debt-ceiling-extension deal reach between Republicans and Democrats. The measure now goes before the Senate and is expected to also pass.

Traders are now looking ahead to the Labor Department’s employment situation report for May on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 compared to the April non-farm jobs number of up 253,000. The Wall Street Journal reported today the Fed is likely to pause in its interest-rate-hiking cycle at the June FOMC meeting, before raising rates again later this summer. That’s a shift from the consensus marketplace belief just recently that the Fed would again raise rates at the June FOMC meeting. However, a “sizzling jobs report” on Friday would throw cold water on the Fed pause, said the Journal report.

In overnight news, the Euro zone May consumer price index came in at up 6.1%, year-on-year, compared to the April reading of up 7.0%. The May reading was lower than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and are trading around $68.00 a barrel. Concerns about weaker global energy demand have hit crude oil this week. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.677%. 

A very heavy U.S. economic data slate Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national employment report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, domestic auto industry sales, monthly chain store sales, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,285.25 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,216.00 and then at 4,187.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,737.00 and then at 14,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,400.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 22/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 127 14/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.20.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0813 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0702 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $69.69 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $67.03 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight on corrective bounces from recent selling pressure. The big drop in crude oil prices this week is bearish for the grains. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are all overall bearish. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders at mid-week are focusing on weaker-than-expected economic data coming out of China. China’s factory activity contracted for the second straight month. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) for May dropped to 48.8 (below expectations) after a reading of 49.2 in April. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. A report in the Wall Street Journal today said “China’s era of rapid growth is over. Its recovery from zero-Covid is stalling. And now the country is facing deep, structural problems in its economy.” China is a major importer and consumer of raw commodities.

Even though Democrat and Republican leaders’ negotiators have agreed upon a U.S. debt-limit-extension package, the deal still needs to pass the U.S. House and Senate. There are still some worries the measure will not be approved by both bodies. June 5 is the latest deadline set by the U.S. Treasury for the U.S. government debt limit to be extended, or else the government could default on some of its financial obligations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower, hit a nearly four-week low, and are trading around $68.00 a barrel. Concerns about weaker global energy demand have hit crude oil hard this week. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.646%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook retail sales index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book. The U.S. data pace really picks up the rest of this week, highlighted by the U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker on profit taking after hitting a nine-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,285.25 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,225.00 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower higher in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,737.00 and then at 14,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,400.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at 130 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 14/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.16.0 and then at 114.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a 2.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0813 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0727 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a nearly four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.69 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.30 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Weak economic data coming out of China and the big drop in crude oil prices this week are bearish for the grains. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, wheat and corn futures are all overall bearish—and bears have gained fresh downside momentum at mid-week. A fledgling weather market in the grains appears to have quickly fizzled out.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes are more upbeat to start the U.S. trading week. Republican and Democratic leaders have agreed upon a deal to raise the U.S. government’s debt limit. House and Senate votes on the matter are likely to occur this week. 

In overnight news, the World Gold Council reported its survey shows 24% of central banks intend to increase their gold holdings in 2023. Reasons include higher inflation, geopolitical turmoil and interest rate worries.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high last week. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.725%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic house indexes, the consumer confidence index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,325.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,250.00 and then at 4,225.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,800.00 and then at 14,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 16/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.00.0 and then at 114.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady after hitting a nine-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.55 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were steady to lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat corn futures are all still overall bearish. However, corn bulls have gained momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff